Apptopia, BofA, Inter Parfums Provide Positive Data Points for Several Holdings

While we get ready for this morning’s barrage of earnings conference calls from the likes of General Motors (GM) , Coca-Cola (KO) , PulteGroup (PHM) , and others, there are some other items catching our attention.

One is a favorable data point that supports the recent rebound in shares of Pro Portfolio holding Dutch Bros (BROS) , while another from Inter Parfums (IPAR) reaffirms consumers' remaining selective with their spending.

Meanwhile, amid concerns over an AI bubble, Bank of America (BAC) now sees chip industry sales hitting almost $1 trillion in 2027, a sizable increase from its prior forecast of $860 billion.

Apptopia on Dutch Bros

Mobile Performance Index (MPI) data from research firm Apptopia points to year-over-year growth for Dutch Bros remaining very similar to the June quarter, which is a better picture than the decline implied in consensus expectations. Apptopia generates its MPI reading by combining proprietary consumer signals, such as growth, engagement, and user segmentation, into a single metric. In the case of Dutch Bros, a sequential break higher in Q3 of app downloads and daily active users is “notable.”

While Apptopia’s data isn’t something we’d call mainstream, the MPI data has historically had a very high correlation rate with Dutch Bros' systemwide sales tallies. This helps explain the rebound we’ve started to see in BROS shares, and it suggests September-quarter expectations could be a tad conservative.

Inter Parfums for the Consumer

Fragrance company Inter Parfums reported a modest top-line miss for its September quarter, with revenue of $430 million vs. $425 million in the year-ago quarter and the market consensus of $432 million. Modest growth at best, but that headline sales figure masks the strength in Inter Parfum’s prestige and luxury fragrance that was compromised by more mainstream brands. From a geographic perspective, the company’s European revenue rose 5%, but its U.S. revenue fell 5% compared to year-ago levels.

We see that as another indication of selective and restrained spending, which reaffirms our view that while upper-income spenders are still opening their wallets, others remain more selective and deal-conscious. Indeed Inter Parfums' management team remarked that "... growth was more moderate than expected, as consumers are being more selective in their spending and retailers are taking a cautious approach to inventory..."

In the current environment, we continue to favor Costco (COST) and TJX Companies (TJX) .

BofA Ups Its Chip Forecast

As we menionted above, Bank of America has increased its semiconductor industry sales forecast to nearly $1 trillion by 2027, up from its prior forecast of $860 billion. More specifically, it sees the following:

2025: $745 billion ($538 billion excluding memory)

2026; $870 billion ($621 billion)

2027: $971 billion (706 billion)

To that, we will add that, per data published by the Semiconductor Industry Association, global chip sales tallied $627.6 billion in 2024, up 19% year over year.

What stands out to us is that BofA originally forecasted global chip sales to hit $860 billion in 2027, which means it now sees it surpassing that level one year earlier.

The key driver behind the revised forecast? No surprise, AI and data center with flow through to compute and networking, as well as the continued recovery in consumer, PC, and smartphone markets.

While we tend not to get too worked up about specific forecast figures, directionally, the revised forecast is very supportive for multiple holdings in the Pro Portfolio.

BofA’s updated outlook will need support, especially to quell the doubters, and the next known potential for that will be capital spending comments from Amazon (AMZN) , Microsoft (MSFT) , Meta (META) , and Alphabet (GOOGL) . All four report their September-quarter results next week, and you can bet folks will be interested in those figures for H2 2025 and beyond. So will we.

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Porfolio was long BROS, BAC, COST, TJX, AMZN, MSFT, META and GOOGL.