Apple's New Price Target Could Be a Trap
We are hopeful for what a refreshed AI-enabled Siri can do, but we’ll first want to see the goods.
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Some are no doubt chin-wagging over Wedbush increasing its Apple (AAPL) target to $350 from $320, given its view that 2026 will be the year Apple firmly enters the AI revolution.
As shareholders, we certainly appreciate the enthusiasm, but you’ll forgive us if we take a more cautious approach because Apple has yet to unveil its refreshed AI-enabled Siri. We are hopeful, but we’ll wait until we see the goods before claiming Apple victorious.
What Do We Know?
We know that Apple and Google (GOOGL) are working together to bring Apple’s anticipated AI-enabled Siri to market as soon as Spring 2026. So far, the iPhone 17 family demand has been stronger than expected, but the thinking is that the AI-enabled Siri refresh should trigger a more robust upgrade cycle than we saw last year with the iPhone 16 and so far with the current iPhone 17 model family. Apple is estimated to have a roughly 1.5 billion install base globally with roughly 1.1 billion to 1.2 billion iPhone models before the iPhone 16 family.
What Do We Think?
If Apple can deliver on a robust AI-enabled Siri refresh, it has the potential to kickstart that refresh rate. Exactly when we will see that could be determined by when Apple unveils this effort and shares it with capable users. If timing is more toward late Q2 2026, we would not be surprised to see folks hold out until Apple releases its next iPhone family, logically the iPhone 18, sometime in September 2026 if historical patterns hold.
Could we see some folks upgrade ahead of that new hardware hitting shelves? Certainly possible.
Could we see the upgrade cycle begin sooner if Apple introduces the refreshed Siri earlier in Q2 2026? That's logical, is our thinking.
When Will We Know?
That’s the question, and we are at least a few months away from Apple showcasing the refreshed Siri. Again, we’re hopeful, but as investors, we try not to fall into the hopium trap. That means we’ll want to see what the refreshed Siri brings, and gauge consumer reaction. That will give us a better sense as to how much of a “wow” factor there is, and that will help us determine if the iPhone upgrade cycle should accelerate.
In addition, we’ll also be following supply chain commentary about demand. We do this anyway as part of our ongoing homework, but if we see supply chain comments point to an acceleration in orders and demand, that would be nice confirmation.
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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AAPL and GOOGL.
