AI Takes the Wheel, Travelers Continue to Spend and the Navy’s Big Plans
Let's look at headlines that confirm our investment strategies such as the state of the consumer, defense and AI spending.
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We’re back at it again, scouring the news and other sources for the latest signals and data points for the thematic investing framework we use to steer the TheStreet Pro Portfolio. If you’re new to this alert, the nuggets we share below reflect the unfolding of those strategies in the world around us, helping add confidence in the Portfolio’s decisions.
If you have a signal to share, post it in the comments section below.
Also, don’t forget to vote in our latest member poll. We’ll be sharing the results with members on Monday, January 13.
Artificial Intelligence
Investment in artificial intelligence medical note-taking apps doubled in 2024, as Big Tech giants including Microsoft and Amazon and start-ups race to grab a share of the $26bn AI healthcare market. AI start-ups focused on creating digital “scribes” for health professionals raised $800mn in 2024, compared to $390mn in 2023, according to data from PitchBook. Read more here
New survey research from leading global technology research and advisory firm Information Services Group finds enterprise leaders plan to increase spending on AI by an average of 5.7 percent in 2025, despite much more modest increases in overall IT budgets, and reinvest savings from cost optimization and productivity into AI-enabled transformation. Read more here
According to a new estimate by Skanda Amarnath, executive director of Employ America, spending on building up AI technologies made up between 16% and 20% of real gross domestic product growth in the third quarter of 2024 alone, and is only expected to grow. As a share of total spending outlays, AI-related investments are on track to surpass the share of GDP attributed to the late '90s dot-com boom and become as large as housing was during the 2000s bubble… Read more here
A survey in the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) latest “Future of Jobs Report,” found that because of the “increasing capability and prevalence” of AI, 41 percent of employers surveyed said they will shrink their workforce within the next five years if the technology is able to replicate the work. Read more here
Position: Alphabet GOOGL, Amazon AMZN, Elastic ESTC, Meta META, Microsoft MSFT, ServiceNow NOW
Cash-Strapped Consumer
Defaults on U.S. credit card loans have hit the highest level since the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, in a sign that lower-income consumers’ financial health is waning after years of high inflation. Credit card lenders wrote off $46bn in seriously delinquent loan balances in the first nine months of 2024, up 50 percent from the same period in the year prior and the highest level in 14 years, according to industry data collated by BankRegData. Write-offs, which occur when lenders decide it is unlikely a borrower will make good on their debts, are a closely watched measure of significant loan distress. Read more here
CivicScience polling finds more than half (54%) of respondents who took on debt to pay for holiday gifts are at least "somewhat" concerned about paying that debt back. That percentage, however, has gone up by four points from last year’s holiday season (50%) and includes 20% who are "very" concerned. Additional data highlight the key demographics most concerned about repayment, with women, individuals under 45 – particularly Gen Z – Democrats, and residents of the West and South showing the highest levels of concern. Read more here
Position: Amazon, Costco COST
Cybersecurity, Data Privacy
Chinese hackers had gained the ability to shut down dozens of U.S. ports, power grids and other infrastructure targets at will, Jake Sullivan told telecommunications and technology executives at a secret meeting at the White House in the fall of 2023, according to people familiar with it. The attack could threaten lives, and the government needed the companies’ help to root out the intruders. What no one at the briefing knew, including Sullivan: China’s hackers were already working their way deep inside U.S. telecom networks, too. Read more here
Chinese state-backed hackers have reportedly breached the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), a Treasury Department office that administers and enforces trade and economic sanctions programs…In a letter sent to Congress this week, the Treasury Department disclosed that Chinese government threat actors hacked its network in what it described as a "major cybersecurity incident" after breaching the BeyondTrust remote support SaaS platform. Read more here
The U.S. Treasury Department said a state-sponsored Chinese hacking operation was able to access third-party software to tap into desktop computers of Treasury employees in what the department is calling “a major incident." Read more here
Over 4,000 abandoned but still active web backdoors were hijacked and their communication infrastructure sinkholed after researchers registered expired domains used for commanding them. Some of the live malware (web shells) was deployed on web servers of high-profile targets, including government and university systems, ready to execute commands from anyone who took control of the communication domains. Read more here
Position: Elastic, First Trust Nasdaq Cybersecurity ETF CIBR, Microsoft
Digital Infrastructure
Microsoft plans to invest $80 billion to build data centers in fiscal 2025, aiming to use them to power the development and use of artificial intelligence (AI). The company is doing so amid a “golden opportunity for American AI,” Microsoft Vice Chair and President Brad Smith wrote in a Friday (Jan. 3) blog post. More than half of this investment in AI infrastructure will be deployed in the United States, according to the post. Read more here
Taiwan's Foxconn, the world's largest contract electronics maker, beat expectations to post its highest-ever revenue for the fourth quarter on continued strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI) servers. Read more here
… healthcare providers are using the cloud to do everything from streamlining note taking to allow doctors more face time with patients to building entire virtual primary care clinics, executives from AWS and Inception Health told Fierce… Like with modern banking, the healthcare experience of Inception’s clinic is “by default digital” but is backed up by a stack of clinical professionals whom the patient can access by phone, video visits or in-person when necessary. All of this is built on AWS’ cloud services, which Somai said allows Inception to develop new tools and experiences in an “extremely secure environment” that exceeds the standards of even HIPPA requirements. Read more here
Position: Marvell MRVL, Nvidia NVDA
Digital Lifestyle
Online spending rose 3% to a record $1.2 trillion globally over the holiday period, with U.S.-sales, specifically, growing 4% to $282 billion. That’s according to a new report from Salesforce, which aggregated data from across its various cloud services, including Agentforce, Commerce Cloud, Marketing Cloud, and Service Cloud, to garner insights into spending activity spanning 1.5 billion shoppers across dozens of countries from November 1 through December 31, 2024. Read more here
The Circular Ring is a smart ring that offers fitness tracking capabilities in an extremely compact package. The second-generation model takes the concept further, with enhancement and more flexibility… For 2025, Circular also makes it easier to get the right fit via Digital Ring Sizing, ensuring the user gets the correct size from the start. Along with the previously available heart monitoring features, the Ring 2 adds an ECG capability as part of its enhanced sensing capability. The sensors are also claimed to be more accurate than before, giving users an even clearer picture of their health. Read more here
The automotive industry is undergoing a digital transformation as more players join forces to change how vehicles are integrated into consumers’ lives. No longer is the focus simply on the mechanics of a car — the future lies in software and the experiences that these systems can create. At the forefront of this change are unconventional partnerships between automakers and tech giants, including companies such as Rivian, Qualcomm and Google. These collaborations are creating a more interconnected ecosystem that blends automotive hardware with state-of-the-art software. The result is a new automotive experience that promises to redefine consumer expectations and alter car ownership in ways that were unimaginable just a few years ago.” Read more here
Position: Alphabet, Amazon, Qualcomm QCOM
Digital Payments, Living the Life
Travelers are prioritizing ease of use and security when making payments, with 73% reporting instances of payment declines or issues, per the report. Real-time payment systems, such as digital wallets, address these concerns by providing secure, instant transactions, reducing fraud risks, and ensuring smoother experiences. Additionally, most travelers are willing to invest more in the quality of their experiences rather than price. According to the report, 77% of travelers prioritize experience over cost. Read more here
Position: American Express AXP, Mastercard MA
Guilty Pleasure
It’s the start of 2025, and that means many people are participating in Dry January. In 2022, 35% of legal-aged Americans skipped alcohol during the month, according to research firm CGA. But alcohol abstinence, or simply drinking less, isn’t a temporary adjustment for many consumers. Most data sources haven’t caught up with the changes in consumer attitudes over the past couple of years, but operators have seen a pretty dramatic decrease in how many of their guests drink and how much their drinking customers consume. Read more here
Safety and Security
Finland’s conservative-led government has unveiled a broad plan to lift defense spending from $6.8 billion in 2025 to $11.5 billion in 2032. The government’s proposal, which has gained the majority support of the main opposition parties in the Eduskunta, the parliament here, would reposition Finland’s annual spending on defense closer to 3.3% of GDP, placing it well above NATO’s 2% guideline. Read more here
For the U.S. Navy to achieve a proposed plan to expand its fleet of battle force ships, the service would need to spend $40.1 billion on shipbuilding every year through 2054, for a total of more than $1 trillion, according to new analysis from the Congressional Budget Office. Over the next 30 years, the Navy wants to grow its fleet of battle force ships to 381 to face swelling global threats, according to the service’s most recent proposal. There are currently 295 in the fleet… Read more here
Position: Lockheed Martin LMT
The Strategies Behind the Thematics Mentioned Above
Aging of the Population - Capturing the demographic wave of the aging population and the changing demands it brings with it.
Artificial Intelligence – Software, chips and related companies that facilitate the collection and analysis of large data sets and autonomous generation of solutions given non-machine language prompts.
Cash Strapped Consumer - Companies poised to benefit as consumers stretch the disposable spending dollars they do have.
Cybersecurity - Companies that focus on protecting against the penetration of digital networks and the theft, ransom, corruption or destruction of data.
Data Privacy and Digital Identity - Companies providing the tools and services that verify authorized users and safeguard personal data privacy.
Digital Infrastructure and Connectivity - The buildout and upgrading of our networks, data storage facilities and equipment.
Digital Lifestyle - The companies behind our increasingly connected lives.
Digital Payments - This model focuses on companies benefitting from the accelerating structural adoption of digital payments and financial technology (FinTech).
Energy Pain Point - Companies poised to prosper from rising power demand.
Guilty Pleasure - Companies that produce/provide food and drink products that consumers tend to enjoy regardless of the economic environment and potential long-term health hazards associated with excessive consumption.
Living the Life - Tapping into aspirational buying and affluent buyers amid rising global wealth.
Safety and Security – Targeted exposure to companies that provide goods and services primarily to the defense and security sectors of the economy.
More Pro Portfolio
- Increasing AI Spending in 2025 Leads Us to Buy More Shares of This Holding
- Weekly Roundup: Off to a Good Start Despite Santa Arriving Too Late
- Large Language Models Eat Up Big Electricity -- and Other Stories That Speak to Our Portfolio
At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long GOOGL, AMZN, ESTC, META, MSFT, NOW, COST, CIBR, MRVL, NVDA, QCOM, AXP, MA and LMT.
