A Look at Why the Market's Climbing Amid Shutdown, Stocks We're Eyeing
Let's see why Tesla, OpenAI and ADP numbers might be helping push stocks higher, and why we're watching these Pro Portfolio holdings.
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The market is moving higher today after shrugging off yesterday’s shutdown news and the S&P 500 closing at a fresh record high. Some of that continued momentum is likely due to Tesla (TSLA) reversing its recent sales decline, but the question yet to be answered now is, how much of that was due to demand being pulled forward because of expiring EV tax credits? With a dearth of company earnings reports this morning and no weekly jobless claims, because of the government shutdown, two other factors are likely helping the market climb further.
First, the September Challenger Job Cuts Reports fell to just over 54,000, down from nearly 86,000 in August and well below some figures looking for as high as 150,000 jobs to have been eliminated. We see that as somewhat good news, but it’s also a bit rear-view facing, given furloughed government workers and prospects for mass layoffs being discussed in Washington. It's still to be determined whether the Trump administration will go through with those layoffs or if they are a tool to get the Democrats to approve a bill to fund the government. We will continue to track developments and respond accordingly.
Before we move on to the second factor, we’ve gotten some questions about when we might add further to Costco (COST) shares. The answer is we are waiting to see if the Trump administration goes forward with mass layoffs, which could weigh on the overall market. If that happens, we would take advantage of that added pullback in COST shares and potentially for others in the Portfolio as well.
And yes, for those who are wondering, as the S&P 500 once again approaches an overbought condition based on its Relative Strength Index level, we are keeping a close watch on positions in the Portfolio that have made dramatic moves, are themselves currently or approaching being overbought, and are closing in on a 4.5% position size. Marvell (MRVL) shares certainly check all three boxes.
OpenAI Racks Up the Valuation
Getting back to that second factor, and it’s one that is helping our shares of SuRo Capital (SSSS) rebound nicely today, OpenAI has completed a deal to help employees sell shares in the company at a $500 billion valuation. That’s giving a bit of a psychological lift to companies in and around the AI space, including our own shares of Nvidia (NVDA) , Marvell, and others. As it relates to SuRo Capital, in the coming several days, we could see the company deliver a preliminary investment portfolio update.
If that comes to pass, that update would reflect a revised valuation for its position in OpenAI and other holdings. When SuRo reported its June quarter results, it based its fair value on the $300 billion valuation OpenAI had in early 2025. We could also learn more about SuRo’s next dividend payment, which would reflect monetizing its positions in CoreWeave (CRWV) , ServiceTitan (TTAN), and GrabAGun (PEW) during the September-ending quarter. We would also be keen to learn about new investments made during the quarter, as well as an update on its newest position in Plaid.
We should see a nice increase in the company’s net asset value (NAV) per share, and that could lead us to revisit our SSSS price target. And while it may be a bit repetitive, we continue to look at SSSS shares through the lens of “total return,” given its business development company (BDC) structure. We continue to think that suggests SuRo may need to deliver a special dividend before year-end, and we’ll revisit that thinking either once we have a preliminary look at the portfolio or the company’s full September quarter earnings report in hand.
Wall Street and the Portfolio’s Holdings
In the meantime, let’s catch up with some of Wall Street’s latest ratings and price targets for our holdings:
Seaport Research initiated coverage of Apple (AAPL) with a Buy rating and $310 price target.
Barclays raised the firm's price target on Labcorp (LH) to $290 from $275
Stifel raised the firm's price target on Marvell to $95 from $80 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
ServiceNow (NOW) shares were added to the Q4 2025 Tactical Ideas List at Wells Fargo.
Baird upgraded United Rentals (URI) to Outperform from Neutral with a price target of $1,050, up from $888.
Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage of Welltower (WELL) with an Overweight rating and $195 price target.
The Pro Portfolio is long COST, SSSS, MRVL, NOW, AAPL, LH, NVDA URI, WELL.
