A Big NAV Per Share Update for This Holding

Coreweave

This morning, SuRo Capital (SSSS) provided an update on its expected net asset value (NAV) per share, indicating it should land between $14-$14.50 when it reports its finalized first-quarter 2026 results in May.

When SuRo delivered its Q4 2025 results, it telegraphed expectations for its NAV per share to climb an additional $5.00-$6.50 per share, subject to capital raises underway for existing holdings in its investment portfolio.

Since that report, OpenAI, Vast Data, and, more recently, Whoop, have announced completed financing rounds, and based on our back-of-the-napkin math, we lifted our NAV per share expectations for Q1 2026 to $14.45 from $8.09 exiting 2025.

As we did that on March 31, we also boosted our SSSS price target to $16 from $14. Some Wall Street analysts who cover SSSS made minor price target increases, but following the SuRo management team largely confirming our math with today’s update, we should see another round of target hikes. We reiterate our $16 target and One rating for SSSS after today’s update.

Alongside that NAV update, SuRo provided an updated cash figure of $46.1 million, down from $50.1 million at the end of 2025. Our thinking is this reflects its Q1 2026 investment in TensorWave via the Magnetar Opportunity vehicle adjusted for its modest gain as it continued to monetize its GrabAGun (PEW) position. Exiting Q1 2026, it still held roughly 600,000 PEW shares, and odds are it will continue to monetize that position.

What we did not see in this preliminary Q1 2026 update was a mention of SuRo's CoreWeave (CRWV) position. Between that lack of mention and the math behind its cash position exiting the quarter, we can deduce that SuRo has around the same position size in its CRWV investment vehicle as it did at the close of 2025.

We’ve shared our view that SuRo management is prudently and opportunistically winding down its CRWV position to maximize its returns. Against the backdrop of the market’s move in recent weeks, including the slump in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, we agree with the decision and find it similar to our thoughts for our AI infrastructure plays in the Pro Portfolio. We see Samsung’s (SSNLF) Q1 2026 preliminary results and the Anthropic comments discussed in our opening comments today, supporting those decisions. Quarterly results and guidance later this week from Applied Digital (APLD), which counts CoreWeave as a significant presence in its contracted revenue pipeline, is the next potential catalyst for CRWV shares, as well as those for Nvidia (NVDA) .

Thoughts on SuRo Dividends

Before we move on and discuss SuRo’s other major announcement, a quick reminder on expected dividends, or at least how we are thinking about potential dividends from SuRo. As far as we can tell, SuRo still has around $35.8 million in debt that needs to be repaid by the end of this year and has a commitment to invest up to $20 million in TensorWave should certain hurdles be met. Measured against the company’s Q1 2026 cash level of $46.1 million, this suggests future portfolio monetizations will be earmarked for those efforts, with any extra cash going toward eventual dividend payments to shareholders as well as replanting its investment portfolio.

While that may frustrate some, given the number of potential IPO candidates in SuRo’s portfolio, including OpenAI, Vast Data, and Whoop, we’ll play the long game with SSSS shares and dividends. As we have often said, when examining SSSS shares, it’s the total return we’re after, and that means capital appreciation and dividends.

A New Structure With Magnetar

While the above update was not a surprise, what did surprise us, in a good way, was the announced transition to an externally managed structure in the form of a joint venture between SuRo and Magnetar. That entity, Neostellar Advisors, would serve as an investment adviser to SuRo. For those of us who have been paying attention to SuRo’s more recent investments, this relationship isn’t a brand new one. We say that given the vehicle SuRo used to invest in TensorWave, the Magnetar Opportunity vehicle we noted above.

Our view on this new structure is positive and adds to our confidence in SuRo’s investment acumen. We think it should expand its deal flow, research and diligence capabilities, and investment bite size. We say that based on the $17.8 billion in assets under management run by Magnetar at the end of 2025 across its investment platforms that span alternative credit and fixed income, quantitative investing, and venture strategies. Adding to our vote of confidence thinking and per SuRo’s 8-K filing today, Magnetar has agreed to invest $20 million in SuRo, subject to certain factors, should the transaction be approved by shareholders.

Now, for those of us who read that 8-K, this is where things may get very interesting:

In connection with the approval of the Advisory Agreement by the SuRo Capital stockholders and the resultant Externalization, an affiliate of the Magnetar JV Entity will agree to invest $20,000,000 in the Company (the “Magnetar Investment”), demonstrating Magnetar’s confidence in the Company’s investment strategy and alignment of interests with the Company’s stockholders. The form of the Magnetar Investment will depend on the occurrence of certain events. Subject to certain exceptions, if, prior to the Externalization, the Company issues shares of its common stock to third parties for cash proceeds of at least $230,000,000 (the “Qualified Fundraising”), then the Magnetar Investment would occur contemporaneously with the Qualified Fundraising and would be in the form of a purchase of the Company’s common stock. If the Qualified Fundraising does not occur prior to the Externalization, then the Magnetar Investment would occur contemporaneously with the Externalization in the form of a convertible promissory note (the “Note”) issued to Magnetar by the Company. The Note would be automatically convertible into shares of the Company’s common stock in connection with any subsequent Qualified Fundraising. If the Qualified Fundraising does not occur within three years of the Externalization, the Company would be obligated to repay to Magnetar all outstanding principal and interest under the Note.

At a minimum, this means SuRo will have another $20 million to put to work, but if it opts for a capital raise, a decision that will be dictated by its share price and potential dilution, there could be a larger capital raise. If that came to pass, it would not only increase SuRo's war chest but it would also help address current liquidity constraints that arguably have prevented larger investors from entering the shares.

All in all, we see this new structure as a positive step for SuRo and the potential for its investment portfolio in the coming quarters. While subject to a shareholder vote, we look forward to investments made under the new structure’s watch.

At the time of publication, the Pro Portfolio was long NVDA and SSSS.