8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Wednesday: What Will Trump Say?

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These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of trading Wednesday. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to a positive start as we kick off trading for Q2 2026.

1. President Donald Trump will deliver a speech on Wednesday at 9 p.m. Washington time to give an update about the war in Iran, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said. The plans for a prime-time address come after the US president said that he foresaw the US ending the war in Iran in the coming weeks. (Bloomberg)

The prelude to tonight's address was Trump's comments yesterday that the U.S. could end the military campaign within the next two to three weeks. The president also said that Iran would not have to make a deal to end the conflict, which to us sounds like the soft off-ramp some had been calling for, as inflation tailwinds have picked up and Trump’s popularity has nosedived. We’re curious to see how Trump frames the potential exit, if he lays out a more specific timeline, and whether he announces new initiatives to address the conflict’s impacts. And given the back and forth as well as continued attacks in the face of peace talk reports, we will also want to watch for the follow-through on this potential wind-down.

2. Oil reversed earlier gains on Wednesday as ‌uncertainty over the situation in the Middle East unnerved markets and U.S. President Donald Trump again suggested the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran could be nearing an end. (Reuters) Gold prices rose on Wednesday to their highest in nearly two weeks, supported by a weaker dollar following U.S. President Donald Trump's statement that the war with Iran could wind down in weeks. (Reuters)

The move lower in oil prices is helping lift U.S. equity futures, but we continue to think where oil, gas, and related prices settle in the coming weeks will be more important for companies and their input costs, the market, and the Fed. We are already reading of fuel surcharges being added to shipping costs of certain items, which should come as little surprise given Agriculture Department data that trucks transport 83% of U.S. agricultural products and 92% of dairy, fruit, vegetables, and nuts.

Goldman Sachs reiterated its bullish view on gold despite the recent selloff, calling for it to hit as high as $5,400 per ounce. Wells Fargo recently lifted its 2026 year-end price target for gold to $6,100 to $6,300.

3. Shares of Nike sank 9% after hours on Tuesday, as executives at the sneaker giant forecast more falling sales in the months ahead and conceded that the company’s turnaround efforts were taking longer than they’d wanted. (MarketWatch)

One company's pain is an opportunity for others as Nike (NKE) continues to take action to reduce excess inventory in the coming quarters. During last night’s earnings call, management said, “Closeout mix remains elevated, and the team is focused on the actions to address excess inventory over the coming quarter.” That sounds like a target-rich environment for Portfolio holding TJX (TJX) .

4. Shares of RH fell 17% in overnight trading heading into Wednesday, after the company posted a decline in its fourth-quarter net income per share, which also missed analysts’ estimates. If losses extend into regular trading, the stock could slump back to six-year lows… The company said fourth-quarter net revenue was negatively impacted by about $30 million due to tariff-related outsourcing and by about $10 million due to adverse weather at the end of the quarter. In September 2025, President Donald Trump set 10% tariffs on imported timber and lumber and 25% duties on kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and upholstered furniture. (MSN)

We’re pointing out RH’s (RH) comments about tariffs and weather as a reminder of the other challenges companies had to contend with in Q1 2026 that are poised to be a headwind for bottom-line expectations. With that in mind, we’d also share that Trump trade advisor Peter Navarro commented last week that the president still expects to raise his global tariffs to 15%.

5. SpaceX is working with at least 21 banks on its blockbuster initial public offering, people familiar with the matter said on Tuesday, one of the largest underwriting ‌syndicates assembled in recent years… Morgan Stanley, Goldman ⁠Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Citigroup (C) are serving as active bookrunners, or the lead banks managing the deal. (Reuters)

6. A record number of megadeals were agreed in the first quarter of the year as companies shrugged off war in the Middle East and a shakeout in the software sector to propel mergers and acquisitions to $1.2tn globally. A total of 22 deals valued above $10bn were agreed in the past three months, the highest-ever quarterly figure, according to LSEG data, surpassing the previous record of 21 deals agreed in the fourth quarter of 2015. It cemented the third consecutive $1tn quarter for dealmaking. (FT)

Items 5 and 6 point to another year of strong investment banking fees, and we continue to see the SpaceX IPO usher in a larger wave of IPOs in the coming quarters. We remain bullish on the Portfolio’s exposure, especially its position in Morgan Stanley (MS) .

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: MBA Mortgage Application Index (Weekly), ADP Employment Change Report (March), Retail Sales (February), S&P Global Final Manufacturing PMI (March), ISM Manufacturing PMI (March), EIA Crude Oil Inventories (Weekly).

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AM – Delta Air Lines (DAL) , RPM (RPM) . PM – Applied Digital (APLD), Constellation Brands (STZ) , PriceSmart (PSMT) .

At the time of publication, the Pro Portfolio was long BAC, MS, and TJX.