8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Wednesday

These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of trading Wednesday. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures across the board point to a modestly positive market open, but we’ll want to revisit those futures after today’s January Employment Report. And with that in mind…

1. The January jobs report could finally confirm that the labor market has stabilized. The stakes are high, particularly as the Federal Reserve has signaled that interest rates could stay in place if employment conditions remain stable. A weak report could reignite the rate-cut debate among policymakers and markets, and ramp up White House pressure on the central bank. (Barron's)

The consensus forecast per Bloomberg is that 67,000 jobs were added in January, up from 50,000 in December. However, ADP’s data showed that just 22,000 private payrolls were added in January, down from 37,000 in December. We’ll need to read through the innards of the January report, being mindful of revisions and the influence of public (that is, government) payrolls. We'll also want to keep an eye on the Unemployment Rate, which ticked down to 4.4% in December after hitting 4.5% in November, marking the highest level since October 2021.

2. “Either we will make a deal or we will have to do something very tough like last time,” Trump said in an interview with Axios, referring to U.S. airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites in June that capped more than a week of attacks by Israel. (The Washington Post) President Donald Trump will host Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House on Wednesday, as tensions continue to rise across the Middle East and negotiations intensify over curbing Iran's nuclear weapons programme. Netanyahu is expected to press Trump to pursue a deal that would not only halt Iran's uranium enrichment but also cut its ballistic missile programme and support for proxy groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. (BBC)

We’re flagging this given the potential for renewed geopolitical uncertainty and what that tends to mean for the market. Trump has been rather clear on his view that Iran should make a deal, but so far, a second round of talks following last week’s meeting has yet to be scheduled. Perhaps Trump is looking to force that next conversation, but let’s also remember how he likes to keep his negotiating opponents off balance, no matter what that means for the stock market.

3. Gold and silver prices rose on Wednesday as U.S. Treasury bond yields fell after data showed December retail sales growth stalled, signaling a softening economy ahead of key jobs data. (MSN) Bitcoin fell 2.4% in the past 24 hours to around $66,900, while ether lost 2.7% to trade back below $2,000. The broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index dropped 3.7%. The declines weighed on crypto-related stocks. Coinbase (COIN) dropped about 4% in pre-market trading, while rival exchange Bullish (BLSH), which owns CoinDesk, fell 2.3%. (CoinDesk)

Rising gold and silver prices are a positive for multiple positions in the Pro Portfolio’s EPS Diplomats basket, but you know that. We’re sharing this as a prelude to today’s Stocks & Markets podcast that features a conversation with David Miller, portfolio manager of the Strategy Shares Gold Enhanced Yield ETF (GOLY). David explains his thinking behind why the rise in gold isn’t over.

4. Amazon's (AMZN) pharmacy business will expand its same-day delivery prescription service to about 4,500 cities and towns in the U.S. by the end of this year, adding nearly 2,000 new communities to the network. (Reuters)

We flagged Amazon’s (AMZN) logistics buildout investment in H2 2025, primarily focusing on what its ongoing efforts to compress delivery times could mean for its grocery and shopping efforts. However, that same infrastructure should increase its competitive footing with the likes of CVS Health (CVS) , Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) , and Rite Aid (RAD) , as well as pharmacy businesses at Kroger (KR) , Albertsons (ACI) , and other grocery companies.

5. Building-products distributor QXO (QXO), led by billionaire dealmaker Brad Jacobs, has agreed to buy smaller private distributor Kodiak Building Partners for about $2.25 billion, according to two people with direct knowledge of the deal. Jacobs, the chairman and CEO of QXO, has been trying to muscle up against retail behemoths Home Depot (HD), opens new tab and Lowe's (LOW) in building products distribution. (Reuters)

This follows QXO’s acquisition of Beacon Roofing Supply, and the expectation is that there are more deals following this new one for Kodiak. The Kodiak deal expands QXO’s product lineup beyond roofing and waterproofing into lumber, trusses, gypsum, and broader construction supplies — categories central to large homebuilders and regional contractors. This makes QXO a competitor to Builders FirstSource (BLDR) as well as one that could challenge its acquisition strategy.

6. Heineken will cut up to 6,000 jobs in both brewing and white-collar roles over the next two years, amounting to about 7 per cent of its global headcount, as the Dutch brewer struggles with declining demand for beer. (FT)

Another indication that alcohol sales are taking a hit, and something that sets the tone for upcoming quarterly results from Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) tomorrow and Molson Coors (TAP) on February 18. We’ve previously talked about the downshift in alcohol consumption, as well as the shift in beverage consumption, especially for Gen Z. We continue to look for a suitable play for the Pro Portfolio.

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: MBA Mortgage Applications Index (Weekly), Employment Report (January), EIA Crude Oil Inventories (Weekly).

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: CVS Health (CVS) , GlobalFoundries (GFS) , Hilton (HLT) , Humana (HUM) , Kraft Heinz (KHC) , McDonald’s (MCD) , Radware (RDWR), Shopify (SHOP) , Terex (TEX) , AppLovin (APP) , Cisco (CSCO) , Equinix (EQIX) , Fastly (FSLY) , International Flavors (IFF) , Motorola Solutions (MSI) , Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC) , Waste Connections (WCN).

More Pro Portfolio:

At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AMZN.