8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Tuesday: 'Very Soon', TSMC, Oracle

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These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of trading Tuesday. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to a continued market rebound following Monday’s late-day reversal.

Before we get to those 8 items, a quick reminder that I’ll be at the Nasdaq Opening Bell ceremony this morning. Blink and you’ll probably miss me, but I’ll be back with some fresh thoughts for you later this morning.

1. President Donald Trump on Monday said the US and Israel were making significant progress in their war on Iran and could end the conflict “very soon,” curtailing an oil-price surge. Trump said he didn’t believe the fighting would be over this week, but insisted the operation was ahead of schedule. (Bloomberg)

Those were the words late yesterday that triggered the aforementioned market rebound, ultimately leading it to close higher. While we would like to be cautiously optimistic. However, shortly after yesterday’s market close I said on the NYSE’s Taking Stock that as we digest Trump’s “very soon” comment we have to remember similar comments that inflation has been licked and we have one of the strongest economies ever despite recent inflation data perking up and the 92,000 jobs lost in the February Employment Report.

As we are hearing early this morning, Tehran's Revolutionary Guard vowed it won’t allow “one liter of oil” to leave the Middle East if U.S. and Israeli attacks continue. That sounds to us like things may not be as close to being over as some might hope, especially since this morning Israeli military has announced that it has begun another fresh wave of strikes on Tehran.

2. Oil prices are likely to remain structurally higher than pre-Middle East-conflict levels, even if tensions ease, DBS Group Research analysts wrote in a report. Supply disruptions from the Gulf and potential production adjustments could keep markets tight in the near term. Even if the conflict de-escalates, any recovery in oil output is likely to be gradual. (Barron’s)

Per reports this morning, only two vessels not linked to Iran or Russia have made the “chicken run” through the Strait of Hormuz compared to a more typical 100 vessels a day either exiting or entering. Here’s the thing, as the number of ships traveling through the strait have ground to a near halt, top Middle East producers and most influential OPEC members have had to resort to cutting actual oil production by more than 5 million barrels per day. This suggests oil, gas and diesel prices are likely to remain at elevated levels and before too long, we’ll start to get word of its impact beyond the aviation industry.

3. Australia's Qantas Airways and Air New Zealand said on Tuesday they are hiking fares due to the Middle East conflict, underscoring how global airlines are struggling to ‌cope with the sudden and soaring costs of fuel. Jet fuel prices, which were around $85 to $90 per barrel prior to the conflict, have increased sharply to between $150 and $200 per barrel in recent days, New Zealand's flag carrier said as it suspended its financial outlook for 2026 due to uncertainty over the conflict. (Reuters)

Those are some of the early warnings of inflation and incremental margin pressure, and as the duration of the conflict and higher oil prices grows, the more likely we’re going to hear similar comments, including fuel surcharges, from other companies. Given the increasingly tough time companies have had passing price increases through in recent months, it raises concerns about margin expectations in H1 2026.

4. TSMC (TSM) reported February net revenue, on a consolidated basis, of approximately NT$317.66 billion, a decrease of 20.8 percent from January 2026 and an increase of 22.2 percent from February 2025. For January through February 2026, revenue was NT$718.91 billion, an increase of 29.9 percent compared to the same period in 2025. (RTTNews)

We typically see sequential revenue declines coming off the build for the holiday shopping season, but when we look at TSM’s January-February 2026 revenue compared to that for 2025, it’s up 30%. Looking at it that way excludes the shift in the Chinese New Year from January last year to February this year. Based on what we know about PC, smartphone and seasonality for other connected devices, not to mention recent chip company comments, we can chalk that 30% figure up to AI and data center demand. We see that figure supporting the Portfolio’s chip positions.

5. Networking has proven an increasingly hot area as artificial intelligence drives up the need for connectivity technologies. HPE said on Monday that it saw a 40% bump in datacenter switching orders during the latest quarter, along with a mid-20% increase in routing orders. “Networking now represents a very important component of revenue, but actually an even more significant part of our operating profit…” The company on Monday raised its networking revenue guidance for the full fiscal year. HPE now expects 68% to 73% growth, versus a prior projection of 65% to 70% growth. (MarketWatch)

We see this as very nice confirmation of our view that rising data consumption and creation, which is being augmented by AI adoption and usage, will drive incremental demand for networking equipment. We view HPE’s (HPE) comments as building on recent ones from Dell (DELL) and very supportive for our positions in Broadcom (AVGO) , and Marvell (MRVL) .

6. With the stock market fixated on risks — from AI spending and disruption to the war in Iran — Oracle’s third-quarter results due after the bell on Tuesday are running headlong into skittish investors looking for reasons to sell… The enterprise software company is expected to report growth of about 30% in earnings per share and a 20% jump in revenue. Sales at its cloud infrastructure business are projected to jump 82%, according to Bloomberg Consensus estimates… Oracle is expected to spend more than $50 billion on capital expenditures in fiscal 2026, which ends in May, more than double what it spent last year. The figure is projected to top $85 billion by fiscal 2029. (Bloomberg)

This will be the big earnings report out after today’s market close, and Oracle (ORCL) will need to deliver not only big numbers but guide for more of the same. To us the proverbial proof in the pudding will be its remaining performance obligation figure. While management will no doubt tout year-over-year progress, the market will want to see it move higher from the $523.3 billion posted in the November 2025 quarter.

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (February), ADP Employment Change (Weekly), Existing Home Sales (February).

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AM – Kohl’s (KSS) , Nio (NIO) , United Natural Foods (UNFI) . PM – AeroVironment (AVAV) , Oracle (ORCL) , SuRo Capital (SSSS) .

At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AVGO, MRVL and SSSS.