8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Tuesday: Oil Price Pressure, Nvidia Turns Heads

Geopolitical Turmoil Helps Oil Stocks

These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of the trading day. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to a modest decline when the stock market opens later on Tuesday morning.

1. Oil prices rose by about 3% on Tuesday, clawing back some of the previous session's losses as Iranian attacks on the United Arab Emirates rekindled supply fears while the Strait ‌of Hormuz remains largely shut. (Reuters)

U.S. diesel rose above $5 a gallon for the first time since December 2022, the latest sign of surging fuel price pressures menacing the global economy as the war in Iran continues to disrupt energy supplies. The nationwide average retail price reached $5.044 a gallon on Monday, according to the American Automobile Association, up by more than a third since the conflict began. (Bloomberg)

When it comes to diesel, no matter all the talk we’ve heard in recent years about EVs, the reality is that diesel is the lifeblood of the global economy. From freight and agriculture to construction and heating oil, the spike in retail petroleum prices will be felt across the broader economy. In the face of all the rhetoric about the U.S.-Iran conflict, even in the face of the Fed’s policy decision on Wednesday, what is revealed about March input and output costs in S&P Global’s Flash March PMI report published on March 24 will be far more insightful and potentially eye-opening.

2. The price of gold was rising early Tuesday, as a mini selloff in futures markets emerged alongside higher energy prices… Taking a step back, though, bullion’s gains could mark a return to form as a haven asset. Since the start of hostilities in Iran, the price of gold has fallen by 6.1%, according to FactSet data. As such, Tuesday’s price action may point to gold re-establishing itself as a safe harbor for investors. (Barron’s)

With the market coming around to thinking the U.S.-Iran conflict is poised to continue for longer than many initially thought, we are starting to see it connect the dots when it comes to implications. We talked about this on Monday when it comes to S&P 500 EPS expectations for 1H 2026, which supports our recent decision to add the ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF (SH) to our holdings. We’re also positioned for the flight to safety trade with gold, given our exposure to the shiny metal in the EPS Diplomats basket.

3. Honeywell International said the Middle East conflict could hit the company’s first-quarter revenue by ‌a high-single-digit percentage, an early sign of how the Iran war may impact corporate earnings beyond the aviation and energy industries. (Reuters)

Bank of America’s Global Industrial Conference is being held on Tuesday and Wednesday, and we would be surprised if Honeywell (HON) were the only company to update its prior guidance to account for what’s happened so far in March when it comes to energy prices, the dollar and demand headwinds.

4. Nvidia shares were rising early Tuesday as Wall Street and the market applauded news from the company’s GTC developer event which kicked off the previous day. The biggest headline amid a flurry of announcements was that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the company expects to sell at least $1 trillion worth of Blackwell and Rubin chips for the period from 2025 through to the end of 2027. He had previously forecast a revenue opportunity of $500 billion by the end of 2026. (Barron’s)

That was the headline that caught much attention late on Monday, and it was bolstered by a flurry of partner announcements for Nvidia (NVDA) . However, Nvidia executives later clarified that the $1 trillion estimate was only for the Blackwell and Rubin processors, suggesting its overall data-center revenue could be well ahead of Wall Street expectations of close to $1 trillion for the same period. We’ll have more to say on this in a standalone note later on Tuesday morning, but the takeaway is that spending on AI and datacenter remains robust, and enterprise adoption is accelerating. Good for our other chip positions and related AI and data center plays in the Portfolio.

5. Amazon is ramping up its speedy delivery service by offering 1-hour and 3-hour shipping in markets across the U.S., including Los Angeles and Chicago, in its latest efforts to ‌stave off e-commerce competition from its biggest rival Walmart. Fast delivery has been a significant part of Amazon's push to increase basket sizes and shopping frequency. The company in December announced a separate service called "Amazon Now" to deliver grocery items and everyday essentials in 30 minutes or less in select ⁠locations including Seattle and Philadelphia. (Reuters)

During Monday's Portfolio Office Hours, a question was asked about Amazon (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT) , and the discussion included Amazon’s focus on compressing delivery times even further, flexing its world-class logistics and delivery system. This announcement, the seeds for which were planted last fall, builds on that and comes just ahead of the company’s Big Spring Sale event (March 25 to 31) and Prime Day (June/July). Amazon remains well-positioned for consumers feeling the pinch of renewed inflation pressures, as well as enterprise adoption of cloud and AI, and the shift to digital advertising.

6. The Securities and Exchange Commission is preparing a proposal to eliminate the requirement to report earnings quarterly and instead give companies the option to share results twice a year, according to people familiar with the matter… The rule is expected to make quarterly reporting optional, not eliminate quarterly reports altogether. (WSJ)

We are of two minds on this. First, it would remove the focus by more than a few companies about “managing for the quarter,” which would, in our view, not be a bad thing. Second, the argument that less reporting would help boost the number of public companies in the U.S. is questionable, but odds are that investors would want to see even more investor conferences and management presentations than we have today to maintain some semblance of information flow. A nice compromise, but we also think more folks being forced to do the work isn’t a bad thing. It would also mean much less of the earnings call “nice quarter guys” nonsense, and that is something we can get on board with.

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: ADP Employment Change (Weekly), NY Fed Services Activity Index (March), Pending Home Sales (February)

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: PM – Bob’s Discount Furniture (BOBS), DocuSign (DOCU) , Lululemon (LULU) , Oklo (OKLO) .

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AMZN, NVDA and SH.