8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Tuesday
Important S&P 500 levels, Warner-Paramount-Netflix drama, more price increases coming, and these other headlines are moving stocks early.
You're reading 0 of 1 free page.
Register to read more or Unlock Pro — 50% Off Ends Soon
These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of the trading Tuesday. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures across the board point to the market opening lower.
1. US traders are coming back to their desks eying firms’ swelling AI budgets, while also wary of the technology’s potential to hurt industries outside the tech sector. Meanwhile, tensions are mounting in the Middle East, and private sector jobs data later Tuesday may give clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. (Bloomberg)
In Friday’s Weekly Roundup, we shared with you why we are closely watching the S&P 500 relative to its 50-day and 100-day moving averages near 6895 and 6813. Coming off the long weekend, that is still the case, and we are doing the same for the Nasdaq Composite.
2. The U.S. military is preparing for the possibility of sustained, weeks-long operations against Iran if President Donald Trump orders an attack, two U.S. officials told Reuters, in what could become a far more serious conflict than previously seen between the countries. (Reuters)
How much of this is Trump ramping up tensions ahead of further U.S.-Iran talks is hard to gauge, but escalating tension and uncertainty will be a headwind for the market. Threading the needle to successful talks is likely to be challenging, as Washington has sought to expand the scope of talks to non-nuclear issues such as Iran's missile stockpile. Iran, however, has said it is only willing to discuss curbs on its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, won't accept zero uranium enrichment, and its missile capabilities are off the table. Now to see what happens next…
3. Companies from Levi Strauss to McCormick & Co., among others, say they are raising prices early this year on items from blue jeans and spices to housewares and industrial products. After holding the line on prices for several months, companies—big and small—have begun a new round of increases, in some cases by high-single-digit percentage points. (WSJ) The dollar edged higher for a second day as currency traders bet the Federal Reserve won’t be able to deliver three rate cuts in 2026. Hedge funds dialed back bearish bets against the greenback on Tuesday as strategists questioned whether economic data — especially inflation — will unlock interest-rate cuts on the scale expected by investors. (Bloomberg)
Coming into the current earnings season, we flagged how companies were grappling with higher input costs and the risk that posed to their margins. We’re not surprised, then, that a growing number of companies are announcing another round of price increases, a move that could either keep inflation sticky or slow its move lower. The thing is, those price increases have yet to show up in the reported economic data, and paired with what we saw in last week’s January Employment Report, December Consumer Price Index, and comments contained in the January PMI reports, we could see the market go from 2-3 rate cuts this year to 1-2.
And while the dollar is edging up off its January low, it is still well below where it was this time last year, but a continued rebound could make for more difficult dollar comparisons in Q2 2026. That would be a potential headwind for multinational companies.
And on the topic of higher prices…
4. Beef costs have risen faster than most other items in the consumer price index, with the broad beef and veal category up 15% over the past year as of January. Uncooked ground beef reached a fresh record after soaring by the most since June 2020 in government data released Friday. (Bloomberg) The herd in this case refers to the U.S. cattle population, which recently hit a 75-year low. Steak prices have shot 55% higher over the past five years, and ground beef, 69%. These American staples might not weigh on household budgets like car insurance and electricity, but they are frequent cost-of-living reminders to any grocery shopper or restaurant diner. (Barron’s)
If you’ve been to the grocery store, you’ve likely seen higher beef prices, but it increasingly looks like those are here to stay for a bit. On Friday, Wendy’s (WEN) talked about another round of price increases coming in part to offset beef inflation, and odds are it won’t be the only company to do so. We’ll look for confirmation from Shake Shack (SHAK) and others yet to report, but given what we’ve seen with consumers, if a company is tied to beef in a meaningful way, now may not be the time for them or their shares.
5. Warner Bros Discovery Inc. is considering reopening sale talks with rival Hollywood studio Paramount Skydance Corp. after receiving its hostile suitor’s most recent amended offer, people with knowledge of the matter said. (Bloomberg)
To quote Yogi Berra, “It ain’t over until it’s over!” We’ve followed the back and forth between the Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) -Netflix (NFLX) - Paramount (PARA) triangle and how the potential deal between Netflix and Warner has weighed on NFLX shares. This renewed drama bears watching for if it means Paramount emerges as the winner, it could be the catalyst for us to become owners of NFLX shares. Remember, it’s Oracle’s (ORCL) Larry Ellison who is the backer behind Skydance Media’s acquisition of Paramount and its pursuit of Warner Bros. He also has ties to President Trump, was a significant donor to his campaign, and part of Trump’s Project Stargate.
6. A quarter of the world’s 8.2 billion people will celebrate Lunar New Year on Feb. 17, 2026, also called Chinese New Year and Spring Festival. It’s a time when many parts of Asia take a break from work to travel, creating one of the world’s largest migrations. This year will see the beginning of the Year of the Fire Horse. (Forbes)
Chinese New Year in 2026 begins today, Tuesday, February 17, marking the beginning of the Year of the Fire Horse. Celebrations, known as the Spring Festival, last for 15 days, concluding with the Lantern Festival on March 3. We point this out partly because we are seeing gold and silver prices decline, in part because Mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea stock markets are shut for the Lunar New Year holidays, sharply limiting demand for the precious metals. Given our podcast conversation last week with David Miller, portfolio manager of the GOLY ETF and CIO at Catalyst Funds, we’re not surprised, but it also means we should see that demand rebound in the coming weeks.
7. Economic data today per TipRanks: Empire Manufacturing Index (February), NAHB Housing Market Index (February).
8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: Builders FirstSource (BLDR) , Ceva (CEVA) , CNH Industrial (CNH) , Herc Holdings (HRI) , Labcorp (LH) , Vulcan Materials (VMC) , Caesars Entertainment (CZR) , Devon Energy (DVN) , Palo Alto Networks (PANW) , Republic Services (RSG) , Toll Brothers (TOL) .
At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long LH.
