8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Thursday: Oil Prices, Treasury Yields, Trump Trade Probes

As OPEC Meets, Oil Slides

These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of the trading Thursday. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to a lower market open this morning.

1. Iran launched a fresh wave of attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf, briefly pushing crude back above $100 a barrel and intensifying what the world’s energy watchdog called the biggest oil market disruption in history… The longer the conflict drags on, the bigger the impact on energy markets that have already seen fuel prices soar, with some parts of the world experiencing shortages. (Bloomberg)

Earlier today, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the current supply disruption is the largest in the history of the global oil market. But it appears the disruption could step up further as Chinese refiners have begun canceling agreed refined fuel export cargoes, including gasoline and diesel. These factors have led Goldman Sachs to bump up its oil forecast for the second time in roughly a week to $150 per barrel. Driving that forecast is the length of time it now expects the Strait of Hormuz to be a chokepoint – 21 days, up from roughly half that previously. If Goldman is close to being correct, it means higher gas and diesel prices, as well as those impacts on businesses and consumers.

2. Investors are growing uneasy about the potential cost of the Iran war, sending long-term government bonds lower amid concerns over how the conflict will add to pressures on budget deficits. A selloff has pushed the 30-year Treasury yield to close to 4.90%, the highest in a month, as investors expect the cost of military operations to swell US government borrowing. (Bloomberg)

We’ll want to watch today’s auction of $22 billion in 30-year Treasuries as an indicator for whether the market is becoming more focused on the fiscal implications of a drawn-out conflict vs. near-term inflation headwinds.

3. U.S. President Donald Trump's administration said on Wednesday it was launching two trade investigations into excess industrial capacity in 16 major trading partners and into forced labor, rebuilding tariff pressure after the Supreme Court tore down much of Trump's tariff program last month. China, the European Union, India, Japan, South Korea and Mexico are ‌among countries that could face new tariffs by this summer under the "Section 301" investigation of unfair trade practices, said U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. (Reuters)

What’s interesting is it appears that many of the targeted countries, including the EU, Taiwan, Switzerland, Japan and Korea, have trade agreements with the U.S. that set their tariffs at specific levels that are, for the most part, higher than 10%. In some cases, like the one for the E.U., the new rate of 10% comes on top of existing tariffs, whereas the previous 15% rate included many existing ones. Because these investigations tend to span months, we should expect to hear more about them and potential trade resolutions. As we learn more, we’ll keep in mind any incremental inflationary forces at work.

4. Their rule of thumb is that a sustained 10% increase in oil boosts the inflation rate by 0.2 percentage points, and the core inflation rate by 0.04 points. Similarly, a sustained 10% rise in oil lowers GDP growth by a tenth, though that could be tempered depending on how domestic producers respond. The impact of tighter financial conditions also weighs on the economy. For every 1 percentage point tightening in their financial conditions index, GDP growth is hurt by 1 point over the following year. So far, Goldman’s financial conditions index has tightened by 0.2 percentage points. But the economy can be impacted by more than just swings in financial markets. The Goldman team cite Federal Reserve research that higher geopolitical risk weighs on both hiring and capital expenditure. When the shocks to geopolitical risk and oil prices occur simultaneously -– like right now – the impact is twice as large. (MarketWatch)

This is Goldman Sachs (GS) gaming out the likely impact of the U.S.-Iran conflict on the U.S. economy. We’ll boil it down and say the longer oil prices remain at elevated levels, the greater the impact on the economy. And to use Goldman’s 10% increase in oil price factor, keep in mind that even at the recent $88 per barrel, oil is ~40% higher than its January-February 2026 average.

5. Meta Platforms announced four new generations of its custom artificial-intelligence chips on Wednesday, reflecting a push to diversify its compute options. The tech giant introduced its MTIA 300, 400, 450 and 500 chips, which will be used to train and run its ranking and recommendation systems, as well as its AI applications and Llama models. Meta said some of its new chips have already been deployed, while others will roll out later this year or next year. (MarketWatch)

While Meta (META) has inked deals with Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) , this announcement speaks to chip capacity constraints but also the focus on overall cost per watt. We see it bolstering the comments and guidance from Broadcom (AVGO) and Marvell (MRVL) .

6. Shares of Campbell’s were on pace for their lowest close in more than two decades Wednesday, after the soups and snacks maker lowered its full-year outlook and said it might have to get more aggressive on discounts and promotions on items like chips and Goldfish, as competition remains stiff and consumers remain cautious. (MarketWatch)

When we hear that, it speaks to our concern over margins, especially as other consumer product companies make similar moves to win over cautious consumers, but also as they feel the pinch of higher input costs, be it from incremental tariffs, transport costs or related surcharges. One of the upcoming signals this weekend is McDonald’s (MCD) leaning further into value meals with offering between $3 and $4 dollars.

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: Housing Starts & Building Permits (February), Jobless Claims (Weekly), Factory Orders (January), EIA Natural Gas Inventories (Weekly)

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AM – Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) , Dollar General (DG) , G-III Apparel (GIII) , Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI) . PM – Adobe (ADBE) , Lennar (LEN) , Mission Produce (AVO) , SentinelOne (S) , Ulta Beauty (ULTA) .

At the time of publication, TheStreet pro Portfolio was long AVGO, META, MRVL, and NVDA.