8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Thursday

These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of trading Thursday. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures across the board point to a weaker market open.

1. Treasuries are on course for their longest losing streak in a month as growing tensions between the US and Iran fuel oil-driven inflation fears. US 10-year yields rose for a third day, up one basis points to 4.09%. Oil prices climbed Thursday to build on the previous day’s surge, following a report that American military intervention in Iran could come sooner than expected. (Bloomberg) The rapid buildup of U.S. forces in the Middle East has progressed to the point that President Trump has the option to take military action against Iran as soon as this weekend, administration and Pentagon officials said, leaving the White House with high-stakes choices about pursuing diplomacy or war. (NY Times)

Tensions continue to escalate, but when similar events have been on the horizon, the duration is key. In this case, that means a prolonged, U.S.‑led operation aimed at regime change would likely have a far larger and more persistent impact on energy markets. That would be a headwind when it comes to further progress on inflation, and most likely not something the Republicans are angling for ahead of the mid-term elections. However, last summer, oil ran up in the weeks leading up to airstrikes in Iran, but quickly gave back much of those gains after the operation. That brings us back to duration being a key factor, should peaceful negotiations fail to emerge.

2. Federal Reserve officials appeared surprisingly wary of cutting interest rates when they met last month, with several even suggesting the central bank may need to raise rates if inflation remains stubbornly high. While the minutes of the central bank’s Jan. 27-28 policy meeting, released Wednesday, fell far short of suggesting most officials were contemplating the possibility of rate increases, they made clear the Fed is shifting further away from agreeing on another cut. (Bloomberg) The dollar was off recent lows on Thursday and hanging on to a bounce after minutes from the Federal Reserve showed policymakers did not seem to be in a rush to cut interest rates and that several were open to hikes if inflation proved sticky. (Reuters)

Is this where we say, we are not surprised, given the recent inflation data and reports, that companies are delivering fresh price increases? Those Fed official comments and ones about higher prices mean the February and March reports for inflation and related tea leaves will be the focal point for us and the market. As we noted above, should we see inflation pressures increase, that is likely to become a hotter topic as we move closer to the mid-term elections.

3. Walmart posted fourth quarter earnings on Thursday morning that slightly beat Wall Street's estimates, giving a readout on the key holiday shopping season in its first report under new CEO John Furner… For the first quarter, Walmart expects revenue to grow in the range of 3.5% to 4.5%, alongside adjusted earnings of $0.63 and $0.65. That's slightly less than the 5% growth and adjusted earnings of $0.69 that Wall Street forecasted. For fiscal year 2027, it expects revenue to increase in the range of 3.5% to 4.5%, alongside adjusted earnings of $2.75 to $2.85. That's also conservative compared to the nearly 5% growth Wall Street predicted, alongside adjusted earnings of $2.97. (Yahoo! Finance)

We’ll want to dig into what Walmart (WMT) has to say about the consumer, input costs, and impact of tariffs, the dollar, and a host of other factors for both its December-quarter results and its outlook for H1 2026. What we can say is that while its U.S. same-store sales grew at 4.6%, which was better than the 4.3% expected, it was less than the average adjusted comp sales figure of 6.3% posted by Costco (COST) over the November 2025 -January 2026 period. Yeah, we’ll say, Costco continues to take consumer wallet share.

4. Global food and beverage companies from PepsiCo to Coca-Cola are focusing on shorter ingredient lists and smaller pack sizes in 2026 as more people take appetite-suppressing GLP-1 drugs for weight loss. Companies that previously took a wait-and-see attitude now see GLP-1s as here to stay. So far this year, nearly three dozen companies outside the healthcare industry have mentioned GLP-1 drugs or weight loss on their earnings conference calls, up from 14 for the same period a year ago… (Reuters) Beer maker Molson Coors a sharp drop in annual profit on Wednesday, hurt by higher aluminum tariffs and weak spending among price-sensitive consumers. Alcohol demand has softened as health‑conscious consumers shift toward non-alcoholic drinks and energy beverages, a trend compounded by the rapid adoption of GLP‑1 weight‑loss drugs. Younger drinkers, particularly Gen Z, are also pulling back from beer and spirits. (Reuters)

We’ve talked about waning demand for alcohol and the potential tailwind that could have for alternative beverages, but the comment from Molson Coors (TAP) about higher aluminum prices is interesting. Here’s the thing, ongoing trade barriers and tariffs on imports have caused the U.S. Midwest premium to rise by over 150% since early 2025. And if you’re thinking it’s not just Molson Coors being impacted, we would be right there with you.

We are also pondering what this means for flavor companies, such as International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF) and its competitors.

5. OpenAI is close to finalizing the first phase of a new funding round that is likely to bring in more than $100 billion, according to people familiar with the matter, a record-breaking financing deal that would give the startup additional capital to build out its artificial intelligence tools. As the ChatGPT maker prepares to spend trillions in infrastructure investment, the overall valuation of the company, including the eventual funding, could exceed $850 billion, according to some of the people. That’s higher than the $830 billion initially expected. (Bloomberg)

That step up in valuation for OpenAI is a nice catalyst for the Pro Portfolio’s position in SuRo Capital (SSSS) . However, let’s remember other Portfolio holdings, such as Nvidia (NVDA) , Microsoft (MSFT) , and Amazon (AMZN) , are also investors in the AI company. As this funding round closes, we’ll be looking for next steps for OpenAI’s expected IPO, which could come as soon as late this year. That transaction, as well as other expected high-profile deals like the one for SpaceX, keep us bullish on Morgan Stanley (MS) and Bank of America (BAC) .

6. Robotaxis are barely off the ground, but many investors already see the market as a two-horse race—with Uber not among them. Waymo is offering full commercial service in six U.S. cities, with a dozen more slated to come online over the next year or so. Tesla offers its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, and the San Francisco Bay Area, though the latter still requires a human “safety monitor” in the vehicle. (WSJ)

We see this as an interesting perspective on Uber (UBER) , realizing the adoption of autonomous vehicles in its business model could be a big factor in potentially reducing driver-related costs, but it would first need to ramp up spending if it chose to build its own fleet of autonomous vehicles. Alternatively, it could leverage consumer adoption of autonomous vehicles, but that would lead to an uncertain conversion timetable. Either way, we’ll be watching Uber as a litmus test for the autonomous market. The same goes for Lyft (LYFT) .

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims (Weekly), Imports/Exports (December), Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (February), Retail & Wholesale Inventories (December), Pending Home Sales (January), EIA Natural Gas Inventories (Weekly).

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: GATX (GATX) , Lemonade (LMND) , Quanta Services (PWR) , Visteon (VC) , Walmart (WMT) , Alarm.com (ALRM) , AMN Healthcare (AMN) , Con Edison (ED) , Dropbox (DBX) , Harmonic (HLIT) , LegalZoom (LZ) , Select Medical (SEM) .

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long COST, SSSS, NVDA, MSFT, AMZN MS and BAC.