8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Monday: NATO, Nvidia GTC, Meta

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang speaks at CES 2026

These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of trading Monday. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to a positive open.

1. Donald Trump has warned that Nato faces a “very bad” future if US allies fail to assist in opening up the Strait of Hormuz, sending a blunt message to European nations to join his war effort in Iran. The US president told the FT in an interview on Sunday that he could also delay his summit with China’s President Xi Jinping later this month as he presses Beijing to help unblock the crucial waterway. (FT)

While the market is poised to open higher this morning, there are multiple reasons to think such a move could be short-lived, especially because consensus EPS expectations for the S&P 500 for H1 2026 have yet to reflect the upward move in gas, diesel, jet fuel and other prices. TheStreet Pro’s Helene Meisler sees an oversold rally emerging this week, but after that the market is likely to come back down.

2. Analysts at UBS, led by Henri Patricot, wrote in a note on Monday that Brent crude prices will feasibly rise more in the coming weeks as supplies continue to be disrupted by the conflict. They wrote that oil could keep climbing to $120 a barrel by the end of March if flows from the strait are not improved before jumping upwards of $150 in the second quarter. (MarketWatch)

UBS’s comments are backed by those from other oil executives that reopening the Strait of Hormuz is the “only solution,” otherwise, “the strain of prolonged high prices could weigh on the global economy and crimp fuel demand.” (WSJ)

Over the weekend, we saw numerous reports about rising gas and diesel prices, with warnings about the impact on food prices as well as those for other goods. That along with “pain at the pump” is likely to weigh on consumer sentiment and spending in the near-term. The questions we will focus on are twofold: How long until the strait is open? How long until idled oil production can ramp back up? Those answers will shape disposable income and therefore consumer spending expectations. In that environment, we continue to favor our positions in Costco (COST) and TJX (TJX) .

3. Nvidia on Monday kicks off its annual GTC developer conference in the city, the biggest event on the chip giant’s calendar—which, given the number of public events featuring its CEO, Jensen Huang, is saying something. Huang is scheduled to deliver his keynote tomorrow morning, and it is sure to be a must-watch for people in the AI sector. (The Information)

At 2 PM ET today, Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang will deliver his GTC keynote, and odds are many investors will be listening to what he says about AI adoption, how it is impacting the enterprise, and how the company expects to maintain its edge amid growing custom AI chip headlines. Expectations are Jensen will announce a new chip system that combines Nvidia’s technology with that of Groq, the independent chip firm whose tech Nvidia licensed in a roughly $20 billion deal late last year. The chip is expected to be built for inference, with OpenAI expected to be a named buyer, and could come as soon as H2 2026 with it being produced by Samsung Electronics, not Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) .

4. The US Commerce Department has pulled a draft regulation that would have restricted exports of artificial intelligence chips to anywhere in the world without US approval, according to an electronic notification posted on a government website. (Bloomberg)

Good news for Nvidia as well as the Portfolio’s other chip holdings. We’ll want to see what if anything Jensen says about this and how it relates to Nvidia’s revenue prospects with China. Remember, when Nvidia issued its recent guidance, it did not bake in any China revenue.

5. Meta is planning sweeping layoffs that could affect 20% or more of the company, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters, as ‌Meta seeks to offset costly artificial intelligence infrastructure bets and prepare for greater efficiency brought about by AI-assisted workers. (Reuters)

While not a severe as recently announced cuts at Block (XYZ) 20% or a figure close to it is sizable given Meta (META) employed ~79,000 people at the end of 2025. We’ve also seen Meta make big cuts before when it has focused on reigning in spending. In November 2022, the company reduced around 13% of its workforce only to cut another 10,000 jobs four months later.

The argument being put forth is the company is focused on the almost $600 billion in plans to invest in data centers by 2028, as well as integrate recent acquisitions, including Moltbook, Manus, and some others. Our take is those are likely factors but remember management has been vocal about leveraging AI across is advertising business. We’ll want to see how correct this reporting is, but it would suggest Meta is much more focused on margins than previously telegraphed.

6. Iran pulled off likely the most significant wartime cyberattack against the U.S. in history, leveraging its hacking powers to cause major disruptions at a global medical-equipment firm that struggled to bring itself back online in recent days. The attack brought a conflict that until now had been largely confined to the Gulf region to the American homeland and offered a preview of the potential for how Iran may broaden its response to the U.S. and Israeli military campaign. (WSJ)

We see this as a stark reminder about the need for investors to have exposure to cybersecurity in their portfolio. We continue to favor the diverse exposure brought to the Pro Portfolio by our position in the First Trust Nasdaq Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) , which is rounded out by our positions in Alphabet (GOOGL) , Microsoft (MSFT) , and Broadcom (AVGO) .

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: NY Empire Manufacturing Index (March), Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (February), NAHB Housing Market Index (March).

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AM – Dollar Tree (DLTR) , Science Applications (SAIC) ; PM – Semtech (SMTC) .

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AVGO, CIBR, COST, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA and TJX.