8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Monday

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These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of trading Monday. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to a weak open.

1. Oil prices surged over $119 a barrel, hitting ‌levels not seen since mid-2022, on Monday as some major producers cut supplies and fears of prolonged shipping disruptions gripped the market due to the expanding U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. (Reuters) Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait are all either throttling back output or shutting fields entirely, as they risk maxing out storage tanks while crude backs up in the Gulf. (FT)

This continues the upward trend in oil and gas prices we saw last week, and with President Trump posting Sunday night that a rise in “short-term oil prices” was a “very small price to pay” for destroying Iran’s nuclear threat, it appears increasingly likely the conflict will span several weeks.

This week brings another look at core CPI and other inflation data, but given the surge in oil and gas prices, the market is already bracing for an uptick in the monthly data to follow. The probability we hear renewed concerns over stagflation is high, and more than likely, that will raise questions over the next step for Fed monetary policy.

2. G7 finance ministers will discuss a possible joint release of petroleum from reserves coordinated by the International Energy Agency, in an emergency meeting on Monday aimed at tackling the surge in oil prices following the conflict in the Gulf… These stocks could cover nearly one month of total oil demand in IEA countries and over 140 days of net imports, the document said. (FT)

These reports have oil off its early morning highs. However, while such a move would be helpful and bring some relief, it brings us back to the question of duration for the conflict. Remember, the strategic reserve was tapped not once, but twice in 2022 to counter the surge in oil prices associated with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. If the conflict goes on, as some reports have indicated, for upwards of 100 days, the impact of tapping strategic reserves could be short-lived.

3. The U.S. dollar jumped on Monday as soaring oil prices sent investors scrambling for cash on worries that a protracted Middle East war could severely disrupt energy supplies and hurt global growth. (Reuters)

While the dollar is moving higher, for now at least, it remains below the Q1 2025 average, but a sustained move higher could see it become a headwind for multinational companies in Q2 2026.

4. Most directly, the price of crude oil affects the gas prices that consumers pay at the pump. The U.S. economy relies on the spending power of its consumers; if, all of a sudden, consumers have to pay more every week to fill up their gas tanks, it’ll likely affect how they feel about their finances and may cause them to cut back spending in other areas. This is especially true given that U.S. consumers already don’t feel great after years of above-normal inflation that chipped away at their purchasing power. (MarketWatch)

The national average for a gallon of regular gas hit $3.25, per AAA, but that was tied with WTI oil hitting $74.66 per barrel. This morning, WTI is trading around $102.50 per barrel, off its earlier high near $115 due to rumblings about tapping strategic reserves. However, it is still up considerably compared to that $74.66 figure, which means we are going to see another leg up in gas prices, and it won’t be a small one. Coupled with Friday’s large and unexpected job loss print in the February Employment Report, odds are higher we are going to see a selective consumer become even more so in the near-term. We’ll have more to say on this early this morning.

5. The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran have unfolded at unprecedented speed and precision thanks to months of planning, a massive assemblage of military force and a cutting-edge weapon never before deployed on this scale: artificial intelligence. AI tools are helping gather intelligence, pick targets, plan bombing missions and assess battle damage at speeds not previously possible. AI helps commanders manage supplies of everything from ammunition to spare parts and lets them choose the best weapon for each objective. (WSJ)

Much the way cyberattacks have become a staple of modern warfare, it’s safe to say AI also falls into that camp. In the past, the military adoption and support of technologies paved the way for greater adoption back to the computer chip and the use of compound semiconductors that have made the first mobile phones and now smartphones possible. We would not be surprised to learn that companies are watching how the military is using AI and that fosters its adoption and usage in the enterprise and elsewhere.

6. Oracle and OpenAI are pulling back on expanding their data center project in Abilene, Texas, a source familiar with the matter told Barron’s on Friday… The source told Barron’s on Friday that an agreement announced by OpenAI and Oracle in July 2025 to develop up to 4.5 gigawatts of additional Stargate capacity is still on track for sites outside of Abilene. The source added that OpenAI’s additional capacity requirements can be handled by other Oracle data centers. (Barron’s)

With Oracle (ORCL) reporting after Tuesday’s (March 10) market close, we suspect this will be a hot topic for the company. Management will need to reassure the market lest this re-ignites concerns over AI and data center spending. We’ll be tracking Oracle’s comments about AI adoption and usage across its customer base as well as its remaining performance obligations (RPOs), which stood at $523.3 billion exiting its November quarter. We’ll also be paying attention to what is said about financing and whether it joins other companies in lifting its capital spending plans for the coming calendar year.

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: Consumer Inflation Expectations (February).

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: PM – Casey’s General Store (CASY) , Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) .

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio had no positions in any securities mentioned.