8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Friday: Oil, Jobs, Costco and Marvell

Jobs Report Raises Questions on Further Fed Rate Hikes

These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of trading Friday. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to a lower market open as we close out the week.

1. West Texas Intermediate rose 5.2% to top $85 a barrel for the first time since 2024. Qatar’s energy minister told the Financial Times the conflict may force Gulf energy exporters to shut down production within weeks, a move that could drive oil toward $150 a barrel. US gasoline pump prices advanced to the highest level since September 2024. (Bloomberg)

Yesterday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright sought to calm anxiety about gas prices, predicting that the conflict could end in the next few weeks. That is likely to fall on deaf ears for now as consumers face even higher prices at the pump in the coming days. The average price of a gallon of gasoline jumped again, to $3.32 per gallon, its highest level in a year and a half, per AAA. However, the price of diesel has risen even faster than regular gasoline, to $4.33 a gallon, the highest since November 2023. As the conflict drags on, consumers and businesses are likely to face higher prices.

And with that in mind…

2. U.S. airlines abandoned the practice of hedging against fuel costs long ago. With oil prices surging following U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, they could be looking at a big bite out of their bottom line in the event of a ‌lengthy conflict that keeps prices elevated for months. Jet fuel prices have risen 15% in the past week, another challenge for an industry already dealing with the fallout from the expanding conflict, with more than 20,000 flights cancelled and thousands of passengers stranded. (Reuters)

The US Global Jets ETF (JETS) , which counts Delta Air Lines (DAL) , United Airlines (UAL) , American Airlines (AAL) , and Southwest Airlines (LUV) as more than 42% of its basket, has already fallen some 15% since its recent peak near $31 just under a month ago. Our view remains the duration of the U.S.-Iran conflict will be the deciding factor, but indications increasingly point to it not reaching a quick resolution. That should make the presentations by American Airlines and United Airlines on March 17 at the JPMorgan Industrials Conference interesting to say the least.

3. The latest release of employment data on Friday is expected to provide more evidence that labor conditions continue to stabilize, a trend that will likely keep the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates at upcoming policy meetings… Economists surveyed by FactSet estimate that employers added 60,000 jobs last month. That would be a fairly solid pace of monthly job growth, well above the 15,000 monthly average recorded last year. But it’s still weaker than the unexpected 130,000 increase in payrolls logged in January. (Barron’s)

All the February data received so far this week from ISM and ADP point to a pick-up in job creation during the month compared to January. Those figures, of course, reflect the private sector and government payrolls can be a bit of a wild card in the monthly Employment Report. However, if the February Employment Report comes in hotter than expected, paired with recent inflation data and the more recent move higher in oil and gas prices, odds are comments from Fed heads will skew more cautious on the topic of rate cuts. We have at least two Fed speakers on deck today, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (10:15 AM ET) and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack (1:30 PM ET).

4. Costco Wholesale’s stock has produced a bullish chart pattern on Thursday that hasn’t been seen in nearly three years, just as membership-based warehouse retailer released its latest earnings report. The pattern, known as a “golden cross,” provides technical confirmation of the historic rally the stock has seen to start this year, as investors seemed to focus on how Costco’s sales growth has consistently beat that of its rivals at a time when consumers have been clamoring for discounted goods. (MarketWatch)

Last night Costco (COST) reported February-quarter results that topped expectations, with U.S.-adjusted comp sales of 6.4%, well ahead of those for Walmart (WMT) , Kroger (KR) and Target (TGT) . Moreover, that 6.4% figure was on top of the 8.6% posted in the February 2025 quarter. In another sign the company continues to take consumer wallet share, traffic increased 3.1% worldwide, average transaction rose 4.2% worldwide, and its membership base expanded with 40.4 million paid executive memberships (up 9.5% year over year) and 82.1 million total paid members (up 4.8%). We’ll have more to say on this in a standalone note later today.

5. U.S. retail sales were unexpectedly unchanged in December as households scaled back spending on motor vehicles and other big-ticket items, potentially setting consumer spending and the economy on a slower growth path heading into the new year. (Reuters)

That December data caught more than a few investors off guard, and this morning we’ll get a fresh look as the January Retail Sales report will be published at 8:30 AM ET today. The consensus estimate calls for a decline of 0.3% for the headline retail sales figure, but keep in mind that we’ve seen month-over-month declines of 0.8% in both January 2024 and January 2025. We’ll be focused on the year-over-year metrics published in the report as well as the more granular categories, using both as benchmarks for our holdings and other consumer-facing companies, including Costco.

6. Marvell Technology stock was popping in premarket trading Friday after the chip maker reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings. Marvell posted adjusted earnings of 80 cents a share on revenue of $2.22 billion. Analysts expected earnings of 79 cents a share on revenue of $2.21 billion, according to FactSet. (Barron’s)

As nice as that was, to us, the forward view served up by Marvell (MRVL) CEO Matthew Murphy was far more important and it’s the one driving the shares higher this morning. Murphy once again lifted Marvell’s fiscal 2027 revenue target, now putting it near $11 billion, up from $10 billion in December and $9.5 billion in September. For context, that equates to more than 30% top-line growth in fiscal 2027 on top of the 42% posted in the just completed fiscal 2026. As Murphy called out, the increased revenue guidance is being driven by its data center business, which includes networking as well as custom AI chips. Murphy also shared Marvell now sees its fiscal 2028 revenue rising 40% year over year, putting it near $15 billion. We’ll have more to say on Marvell’s results and guidance in standalone note later today.

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: Employment Report (February), Retail Sales (January), Used Car Prices (February), Retail and Business Inventories (December).

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AM - Algonquin Power & Utilities (AQN).

At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long COST and MRVL.