8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Friday: Big Name IPO Intrigue

Elon Musk, SpaceX

These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of trading Friday. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to a lower market open.

1. The Pentagon is looking at sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East to give President Trump more military options even as he weighs peace talks with Tehran, Department of Defense officials with knowledge of the planning said. (WSJ) Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and any transit through the waterway will face “harsh measures.” (Alarabiya English)

Yesterday afternoon, we shared our thinking that President Trump would extend his 5-day pause from striking Iran’s energy plants, and shortly thereafter, the president announced an extension to April 7. The above, however, indicates that until a deal is struck, hostilities are poised to continue, and that is helping lift oil prices this morning. In turn, that is weighing on U.S. equity futures, as is the growing concern over supply chain-related issues. Similar to last week, we would not be surprised if short-term traders who do not want to risk their exposures over the weekend weigh on the market later Friday.

2. Mortgage rates rose for the fourth straight week to the highest level since September, a sharp reversal that threatens to chill the start of the important spring home-buying season. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.38% this week, up from 6.22% last week, Freddie Mac said Thursday. (WSJ)

We see that as a headwind for the domestic housing market, which, per recent comments from KB Home (KBH) , is already struggling from a demand perspective. Renewed inflation tailwinds have the potential to exacerbate affordability issues, while existing homeowners with vastly lower mortgage rates opt to remain in place. In such an environment, we’ll continue to contemplate plays in the repair and remodel space.

3. OpenAI's ChatGPT ads pilot in the United States has crossed the $100 million annualized revenue mark within six weeks of launch, a company spokesperson said on Thursday, pointing to robust early demand for the ‌AI startup's nascent advertising business. (Reuters)

Impressive but also not all that surprising given comments from advertising giant WPP plc (WPP), given the “soaring adoption of WPP Open, an AI-enabled operating system that’s used by marketers to plan, create, and run campaigns.” Findings from the Mediaocean 2025 H2 Market Report revealed marketers are deploying generative AI (GenAI) across creative, media, and measurement workflows.

In short, as AI adoption and usage grow, advertisers are looking to follow those eyeballs. Sound familiar? This will likely accelerate the decline in print, radio, and TV advertising spend, but it also has the potential to pull spending from some digital categories, raising fresh questions for companies such as The Trade Desk (TTD) , Lamar Advertising (LAMR) and Clear Channel Outdoor (CCO) .

4. Elon Musk is cooking up a memorable stock-market debut for SpaceX, and not just because it is expected to be the biggest one ever… The rocket-and-satellite company is expected to file confidentially with regulators for its IPO in coming days… Also under consideration: unusual lockup times that limit share sales by early investors, preferential treatment for investors in his other companies and allocating an outsize portion of shares to individual investors, people familiar with the matter said. (WSJ)

Curious and somewhat unconventional, but that’s par for the course with Elon Musk. The financials and other insights on the company that will be shared in the eventual S-1 filing will be of more interest to the investment community, not only for insight into SpaceX but as a measuring stick for others like Blue Origin. The filing should also shed more light on Musk’s plans for Starlink and xAI, and that will be of interest to a set of other companies.

5. Anthropic PBC is considering going public as soon as in October, according to people familiar with the matter, as the artificial intelligence company races with rival OpenAI Inc. to hold an initial public offering. (Bloomberg)

Paired with the expected IPO from SpaceX, this builds the case for a rebound in the IPO market later this year, which is good for several of the Pro Portfolio’s holdings. With the potential October line in the sand drawn for Anthropic, many will be looking to see if OpenAI’s push to go public later this year speeds up so it can beat Anthropic to the market. And that helps explain OpenAI’s $100 million in annualized advertising announcement discussed above.

Given the investments in OpenAI held by several Pro Portfolio holdings, including Microsoft (MSFT) , Nvidia (NVDA) , and SuRo Capital (SSSS) , we’ll continue to monitor that progress.

6. President Donald Trump said Thursday that he’s directing the Department of Homeland Security to cover the salaries of airport transportation security officers who are going without pay because of a budget standoff with Congress. Trump said in a social media post that he would sign an executive order to restore the pay of workers for the Transportation Security Administration to end the “chaos” that has gripped some airports during the busy spring break travel season. (Politico)

Earlier this week, we discussed how such a move would only eventually reduce airport traffic snarls, but as travelers, we are glad to see this. Donning our investor cap, we have to question how many of the folks who flocked to Clear Secure (YOU) to avert those massive TSA lines will renew their subscriptions.

We say this given our own experience with Clear’s long lines and far speedier offerings, including TSA PreCheck Touchless ID. I’ve used it at New York’s LaGuardia Airport, and it works like a dream. So far, it’s in 40+ airports compared to just over 60 for Clear+. We also have to wonder if the law of gravity will overtake YOU shares given their move to more than $53 from $33 in late February.

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (March, Final).

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AM – Carnival (CCL) .

At the time of publication, the Pro Portfolio was long MSFT, NVDA, and SSSS shares.