8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Friday: $100+ Oil, PCE, $30 Minimum Wage?

PCE Price Index

These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of trading Friday. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures have rebounded and now point to a positive market open. With the January PCE Price Index and updated Q4 2025 GDP figures coming at 8:30 AM ET, we’ll want to revisit futures once the market has digested those reports.

1. Oil prices held above $100, despite U.S. efforts to boost global supplies by allowing countries to purchase sanctioned Russian crude already at sea. There are about 124 million barrels of Russian oil at sea, according to industry executives, roughly equivalent to five or six days of the supply usually expected to flow out of the Strait of Hormuz. (WSJ) The near-halt to shipping through the narrow Strait of Hormuz between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula has choked off shipments of crude, natural gas and products such as diesel to global customers, driving up energy prices. Several ships have been attacked this week, adding to the odds that owners won’t pass Hormuz anytime soon. That has raised fears of an inflation crisis and is starting to hit some economies. (Bloomberg)

You're probably tiring of the word “duration,” at this point, but we will share that President Trump appears to have softened his message about the U.S.-Iran conflict being over in short order, sharing on Truth Social early this morning, “We have unparalleled firepower, unlimited ammunition, and plenty of time…”

2. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, is expected to show price pressures remained firm in January. That would give central bank officials little reason to lower interest rates at their March policy meeting next week. (Barron’s)

While we recognize this morning’s January PCE price index is one of the last pieces of inflation data ahead of the Fed’s policy decision next week, our view, much like other market watchers, is that the Fed is paying close attention to the ramp in energy prices and mindful of that impact on inflation and the economy. With that in mind, and as I discussed with Julie Gillespie at TipRanks yesterday, we’ll be very interested in the inflation findings in the March Flash PMI report on March 24.

3. Adobe’s fiscal first-quarter results largely cleared Wall Street’s bar, but its modest earnings beat for the period wasn’t enough to disprove the narrative around artificial-intelligence disruption that’s weighed on software stocks. One issue is that Adobe’s growth slowed on annual recurring revenue, which at $26 billion was up 10.9%. The company posted 11.5% growth on the metric in its fiscal fourth quarter. (MarketWatch)

Our view remains that while managements will talk about how its customers are adopting its services, including AI, the market is looking for confirmation in numbers, be it average recurring revenue (ARR), backlog, remaining performance obligations (RPOs), or total contract value. We will continue to focus on those figures for they will not only reflect customer adoption but also serve as a form of revenue guidance coverage, and visibility.

4. Lennar had lower revenue in the first quarter as a tough housing market has resulted in lower average home sale prices. The Miami-based homebuilder on Thursday posted a first-quarter profit of $229.4 million, or 93 cents a share, compared with $519.5 million, or $1.96 a share, a year earlier. (WSJ)

That’s the headline commentary, but to us, what Lennar’s (LEN) Co-CEO Stuart Miller said on the earnings call was far more revealing, but also confirming for our avoiding the housing space:

While traffic was consistent, customers were both hesitant and limited by what they could afford to purchase. With that said, our fourth quarter results reflect a continued softening of market conditions and affordability. Sales volume has been difficult to maintain and required additional incentives to achieve our expected pace and to avoid an unintended buildup of excess inventory.

5. Shares of Ulta Beauty slid after hours on Thursday after the cosmetics retailer forecast a profit and same-store sales for this year that were below Wall Street’s estimates, adding that it expects more selective consumer spending and that it was “increasingly mindful” of conflicts abroad…. CEO Kecia Steelman, during Ulta’s earnings call, said the pickier consumer sentiment seen last year would likely be alive and well this year. She said that through last year, shoppers showed “continued resilience, strong focus on value and affordability, and increasing discernment in spending decisions.” (MarketWatch)

The combination of that picky consumer with the step up we’ve already seen in gas prices and the prospect for higher prices elsewhere was a large part behind our decision to close out the Portfolio’s position in Dutch Bros (BROS) earlier this week.

6. A proposal to raise the minimum wage in New York City to $30 an hour is drawing cheers from working-class New Yorkers struggling to afford the city and sending chills through a business community confronting rising costs on other fronts. A bill introduced this week in the City Council would raise New York’s minimum wage to the highest in the country—for any city or state. If the measure passes, it would take the current minimum hourly wage from $17 to $30 by 2030 for large businesses; businesses that employ fewer than 500 people would hit the $30 mark by 2032. (WSJ)

While we are always in favor of people earning more, if an increase of that magnitude is passed, it will likely fall into the camp of unintended consequences. Even if the final figure is somewhat less than the $30 one cited above, a dramatic increase will have repercussions. We will continue to follow this proposal, and others that may fall on its heels.

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: Personal Income & Spending (January), PCE Price Index (January), Durable Orders (January), GDP (Q4 2025), JOLTS Job Openings & Quits (January), Michigan Consumer Expectations Index (March, Prelim.)

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AM – Buckle (BKE) .

At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio had no positions in any securities mentioned.