8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Friday
Key levels to watch for the S&P 500, Amazon, TrumpRX, U.S.-Iran talks, and more are moving markets.
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These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of trading Friday. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures across the board point to a positive market open.
1. The selling in the S&P 500 index has been more evident in the biggest stocks than across the broader market, and market internals are still relatively strong. But they won’t be able to stand up against a full-fledged SPX breakdown. A key support level at 6,800 (the January lows) was broken on Thursday. The next support is at 6,720 (last December’s lows), which is critical for the bullish camp. A close below 6,720 would be extremely negative. (MarketWatch)
To those levels, we’ll add the S&P 500’s 100-day moving average near 6,796. Yesterday, we shared the index flirted with that level, moving below it during the trading day and finishing just above it at the market close. While equity futures suggest a potential bounce, and we could start to see dip buyers emerge, we also have the pull lower of Amazon (AMZN) , uncertainty over what’s next between the U.S. and Iran, and whether traders want to be long heading into the weekend. We’ll look to see if we get a positive test of that key support level for the S&P 500, not an afternoon market slump, before putting capital to work.
2. Senior Iranian officials arrived in Oman for crunch talks with the US over the Islamic republic’s nuclear programme as part of a diplomatic push to avert a new war between the arch enemies. The negotiations, scheduled to begin on Friday, come as US President Donald Trump has been weighing military options against Iran. (FT)
It is rather well known that there are two different agendas, and doubts about a deal being reached. We could see today’s talks conclude with an agreement to hold further talks, a more complete resolution, or continued disagreements. The question is whether the outcome is met with President Trump moving forward with his threat to carry out strikes on Iran if an agreement cannot be reached or if he backs down. If an agreement is reached, that would help take some pressure off the market, but if Trump moves forward with force, odds are it will keep headwinds for the market blowing.
3. Four of the biggest US technology companies together have forecast capital expenditures that will reach about $650 billion in 2026 — a mind-boggling tide of cash earmarked for new data centers and the long list of equipment needed to make them tick, including artificial intelligence chips, networking cables, and backup generators… The ever-larger numbers — in total, an estimated 60% increase from a year ago — means yet another acceleration in the wave of data center construction taking place around the world. (Bloomberg)
Coming into the current earnings season, we said we would be tracking the aggregate 2026 capital spending by hyperscalers, and with Amazon’s $200 billion capex plan, we now have a more complete picture. We’ll have more to say on Amazon’s earnings in a stand-alone note later this morning, but that more-than-50% year-over-year increase is weighing on the stock, which in turn is restraining S&P 500 futures this morning. That aggregate level of spending over the coming quarters supports the Pro Portfolio’s positions in several holdings, ranging from our chip positions to Arista Networks (ANET) and Eaton (ETN) .
4. President Donald Trump unveiled TrumpRx, a government-hosted portal that directs patients to discounted, cash-priced prescription drugs offered by participating manufacturers and pharmacy coupon partners. The portal listed more than 40 medications at launch, including GLP-1 weight-loss and diabetes treatments. (Newsweek)
To initiate this effort, the Trump administration reportedly cut deals with AstraZeneca (AZN) , Eli Lilly (LLY) , EMD Serono, Novo Nordisk (NVO) , and Pfizer (PFE) . Discounts from 11 additional companies will be available through the portal in the coming months, according to the White House. How much this program cuts costs to people who already have drug coverage and what the impact is on drug companies will become evident in the coming months. According to a 2024 survey conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, about 85% of Americans have drug coverage.
Blink Health, a holding in SuRo Capital's (SSSS) portfolio, has been closely linked to TrumpRx, given that Donald Trump Jr. is on the board. We will want to see what Blink has to say about TrumpRx and whether it’s a catalyst that could lead the company to become publicly traded.
5. Prediction market operator Kalshi is seeking US regulatory approval to allow margin trading on its platform, as it seeks to lure institutional investors with sophisticated financial contracts. Kalshi has held meetings with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over several months in its effort to win approval, according to people familiar with the matter. It was not clear whether the CFTC would approve the request or where the matter stood. (FT)
Over the last year, markets have been volatile for a variety of reasons, but should Kalshi move into margin trading, as we see it, the odds of that volatility increasing further are high. We suspect a similar move is behind the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) investing $2 billion in Polymarket back in October. We’ll want to follow the CFTC decision and see what implications are for the derivatives market and companies like the CME Group (CME) .
6. Once Upon a Farm, the children's organic food company co-founded by actor Jennifer Garner, said on Thursday it had raised nearly $198 million in its U.S. initial public offering. The Berkeley, California-based company and some of its backers offered around 11 million shares priced at $18 apiece. This was at midpoint of its targeted range of between $17 and $19 apiece. (Reuters) Forgent Power (FPS.N), was valued at nearly $8 billion in its New York Stock Exchange debut on Thursday, as investor appetite for companies catering to the AI boom remains healthy despite pockets of worries the market may have overheated. (Reuters)
Solid week for IPOs, including the two mentioned above, but also Bob’s Discount Furniture (BOBS), Eikon Therapeutics (EIKN), and Veradermics (MANE). There are several more deals to price in the coming days, and how they trade will pave the way for some of the larger, higher IPO offerings set to come. We’re watching that closely given three positions in the Pro Portfolio.
7. Economic data today per TipRanks: Used Car Prices (January), Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Prelim. February).
The January Employment Report that was supposed to be released today has been postponed to Wednesday, February 11, given the recent government shutdown.
8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AutoNation (AN) , Carlyle Group (CG) , Newell Brands (NWL) , Under Armour (UAA) .
At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AMZN, SSSS, ANET and ETN.
