The Tariff War Isn't Over. Here's My Game Plan for a Tricky Market.
The Supreme Court struck down Trump's tariffs, but the issue remains murky and dynamic. And then there's the State of the Union wild card.
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The market's reaction to Friday's Supreme Court decision striking down President Trump's IEEPA tariffs was surprisingly mild. The headline was dramatic as the Court ruled 6-3 that Trump exceeded his authority, but the reality is the administration was prepared for this outcome and moved quickly.
Trump announced a 10% global tariff Friday night under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, then raised it to the maximum allowable 15% on Saturday. That law permits tariffs for 150 days before requiring congressional approval, so this is far from a permanent solution.
The tariff war isn't over, Trump just changed weapons.
Macro Instability
The tariff chaos is hitting at an already unstable macro backdrop. The recent jobs and inflation data were positive, but the Fed isn't in any rush to give the market the rate cut it's been begging for.
Bonds (TLT) are strong, and rates are falling, which is a contradictory signal that demands vigilance. Precious metals continue the bounce that started on Friday, and the dollar is showing some strength.
There's still plenty of macro worry out there, but it isn't moving the Fed on interest-rate expectations.
Navigating the Landmines
While earnings season is winding down, there are still plenty of reports rolling in from smaller-cap names over the next couple of weeks. Small stocks are notorious landmines that can produce ugly surprises if you aren't prepared.
Don't get complacent just because the big-name reports are behind us. Know your positions before the reports hit. I almost always have at least one ugly surprise from small-cap earnings reports.
The Index Illusion
The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 charts continue to look deceptively healthy, but don't let that fool you. The biggest problem right now isn't what's in the indexes, it is the lack of sustained upside momentum. Both are still positive for 2026, but they've gone nowhere for weeks. There isn't much strong leadership, and until that changes, the indexes are telling a story that isn't the whole truth.
State of the Union Wild Card
President Trump delivers his State of the Union on Tuesday, February 24 at 9 pm ET. Tariffs, inflation, and affordability will dominate the economic messaging. But the bigger wild card is national security.
There's been a massive military buildup in the Middle East, and Trump keeps hinting at a potential strike on Iran's nuclear program. Oil is already reflecting that tension. Any escalation there changes the calculus quickly.
My Game Plan
This is a stock picker's market right now, but not in a great way. There's too much random movement, not enough fear to clear the air, and not enough confidence to attract real momentum buyers.
The Magnificent Seven (MAGS) bounced off its 200-day moving average on Friday, but that chart looks terrible. If that group rolls over again, the support levels are in serious trouble.
I'm keeping my trading levels low, managing existing positions carefully, and waiting for better technical setups before getting aggressive with new buys. The macro situation is a mess, and the setups aren't there yet.
Patience is a position. When the conditions improve, I'll be ready to move fast, but right now the market doesn't deserve my aggression.
At the time of publication, Rev Shark had no positions in any securities mentioned.
