The Jobs Game, Trading Broadcom, Bitcoin at a Crossroads, Ford Unplugs

Welcome! It's time to play this week's or perhaps this month's version of "This is the event we've been waiting for." I can see it and hear the music now....

"Contestant number one, choose your category!"

- Thanks, Alex. I'll take stale economic data that could still produce an oversized algorithmic market reaction for a thousand.

"Contestant number one... Your question is 'What have traders, investors, economists, political editorialists and the general public at large been looking out for since the cows had come home?'"

- Alex, what are grossly inaccurate monthly BLS labor market survey results?

"Precisely, Nice job, contestant number one, that answer puts you in the lead!"

It's Tuesday morning. At 8:30 a.m., which is still several hours away as I bang away at my keyboard, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release their complete dataset of labor market survey results for November with as much October data as they have available sprinkled in. This report was originally scheduled for December 5 but could not be released on time due to the shutdown of the federal government that dominated all of October and much of November. For that reason, the October results were never released and will be incomplete.

What to expect? 

With the BLS adjustments for both seasonality and their birth-death model now widely accepted by most economists and other varieties of Fed watchers as rather significantly skewed (as they have been for years), not accuracy. That said, trends in job creation and wage growth or the lack thereof are considered valid and high-speed, keyword-reading algorithms will force whatever now pitifully passes for price discovery on our marketplace.

Put bluntly, expect to see that job creation has continued to slow as has wage growth. That said, I also expect to see that demand for labor, while starting to wane, has not made like a pea rolling off of a table, plummeting straight to the floor. 

Economists are probably hoping for signs of stability. Traders and investors may be on the lookout for some weak data as that would strengthen the case for short-term rate cuts in early 2026. Remember, for markets, often bad is good and vice versa. Then again, a very weak Empire State Manufacturing report for December did not do much for equities on Monday, did it?

Equities

Monday ended up being a moderately negative day for equities that was much worse for the AI-trade and big tech than it was for the broader marketplace, as last week's rotation out of growth and into value continued on its way. Last week's poster children of the rotation, Oracle  (ORCL)  and Broadcom  (AVGO) , were again slapped around pretty hard as the Dow Jones U.S. Software Index surrendered 1.53% for the day and the Dow Jones U.S. Semiconductor Index gave up 0.78%.

Several readers asked on Monday if I had initiated AVGO on Friday's dip. I did and added to it once on Monday. My net basis is still $350.57 as I mentioned to at least one reader. The position is not large and never will be as this was a trade, not a statement and definitely not an investment. You are all likely familiar with my 8% rule. This position is currently down 3.5% at zero dark-thirty on Tuesday morning. You kids see the beatdown suffered by CoreWeave  (CRWV) ?

Taking in the view from 10,000 feet, the S&P 500 lost just 0.16% on Monday as the Nasdaq Composite gave back 0.59%, extending the Confirmation Day selloff experienced on Friday. ​

​Small-caps were hit fairly hard as well, as the Russell 2000 gave up 0.81%. Didn't anyone close in the green, Sarge? Oh, sure. but you don't want to hear it. The defensives did well, which is not often a good sign for the markets, or for the economy. 

Was this just a case of posturing for safety ahead of the BLS data? Very possibly. We'll know more soon enough.

Breadth

Surprisingly, eight of the 11 S&P sector SPDR ETFs closed out the Monday session in the green. Surprising that is, until one realizes that defensive sectors took four of the top five slots on the daily performance tables, with Health Care  (XLV)  in the lead followed by the Utilities  (XLU) . Technology  (XLK) , as it had on Friday and as it had for last week, placed in eleventh place.

Winners actually beat winners across the NYSE, by less than a smidgen (7 issues), while losers beat winners by roughly 7 to 4 margin across the Nasdaq. Advancing volume took just a 41.4% share of composite NYSE-listed trade and an even less impressive 30.3% across composite Nasdaq-listed activity. 

Aggregate trade was steady from Friday's levels. Trade was down 0.8% across Nasdaq listings and up 1.3% across NYSE listings. Trade was also up just a hair across the membership of the S&P 500.

Good News!

Reuters reported on Monday that Nvidia  (NVDA)  was considering adding production capacity for its H200 chips designed specifically for export to Chinese-based customers. Chinese tech giants Alibaba  (BABA)  and ByteDance have apparently shown great interest in purchasing bulk quantities of said GPUs.

This would also involve Taiwan Semiconductor  (TSM) , as the foundry for the Nvidia-designed chips. These chips are manufactured in Taiwan, would have to be exported to the U.S. for review and then exported from the U.S. to mainland China. The Department of Commerce still has to finalize the president's policy and any deal between U.S. exporters and their Chinese clients.

Bad News?

Ford Motor  (F) , which is a former "Stocks Under $10" name, will be taking a $19.5 billion write-down of its electric vehicle division. Appearing on CNBC on Monday, Ford CEO Jim Farley said, "EVs just weren't selling. This was the right time to listen to the customer." 

As part of the firm's directional shift, production of the current F-150 Lightning electric pick-up will end. The company will pivot its electric vehicle operations towards hybrids, extended range vehicles and smaller models.

Ford still sees these types of vehicles, in the aggregate, approaching a 50% market share by the year 2030, up from about 17% in 2025. Ford does expect to hire thousands of U.S. employees over the next few years as the company makes these changes. In addition, there are still plans for an eventual next generation F-150 Lightning, but it will be more of an extended range electric vehicle and will be assembled in Dearborn, Michigan.

Bitcoin at a Crossroads

According to a CoinDesk report, the pressure on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies on Monday forced more than $584 million in liquidations across the space dominated by Bitcoin and Ether. The largest single margin call, I mean liquidation order, was for an $11.58 million position in Bitcoin that was executed at Binance. 

Bitcoin bottomed close to $85,600 on Monday and is trading close to $87,000 this morning. Is the selloff over? Are the forced liquidations over? 

It's not difficult to notice the quite obvious double top pattern of bearish reversal that ran over this past summer into October. That pattern produced a selloff that culminated with a low of $80,525 on November 21. That's exactly where this chart starts to get interesting.

Less than a week ahead of that low, Bitcoin suffered a "death cross." That's an overtly bearish signal. Though the signal is more pronounced and taken more seriously if the 200-day line is already headed lower when it is crossed, this is not exactly the case here. It's still not a positive signal.

Readers will note that from November 21 through early December, Bitcoin rallied and that rally now looks to me to appear an awful lot like a bear flag. Flags, be they bullish or bearish, are patterns of trend continuance. The trend for Bitcoin had already been bearish. The downside pivot? That November 21 low. The upside pivot would now be the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA).

Looking at my favorite indicators, Bitcoin's reading for Relative Strength, while not in technically oversold territory, is not in good shape. In addition, the daily moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is in poor shape as well. 

The histogram of the 9-day EMA is now in negative territory. The 12-day EMA has also moved below the 26-day EMA as well, with both of those lines below the zero-bound. These are bearish signals.

While this liquidation event may be over and that would permit dip buyers to enter at or close to what may be legit support, that November 21 low looms large. Lose that level, and this very likely gets very ugly.

October Employment Situation (08:30 ET)

Non-Farm Payrolls: Expecting 55K, Last 119K.

Average Hourly Earnings: Expecting 3.8% y/y, Last 3.8% y/y.

Average Weekly Hours: Expecting 34.2, last 34.2 hours.

November Employment Situation (08:30 ET)

Non-Farm Payrolls: Expecting 43K.

Unemployment Rate: Expecting 4.5%.

Underemployment Rate: Expecting 8.2%.

Participation Rate: Expecting 62.5%.

Average Hourly Earnings: Expecting 3.7% y/y.

Average Weekly Hours: Expecting 34.2.

Other Economics (All Times Eastern)

08:15 - ADP Employment Report (weekly): Last +4.75K.

08:30 - Retail Sales (Oct): Expecting 0.2% m/m, Last 0.2% m/m.

08:30 - Core Retail Sales (Oct): Expecting 0.2% m/m, Last 0.3% m/m.

08:55 - Redbook (Weekly): Last 5.7% y/y.

09:45 - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Dec-Flash): Expecting 52.1, Last 52.2.

09:45 - S&P Global Services PMI (Dec-Flash): Expecting 53.6, Last 54.1.

10:00 - Business Inventories (Sep): Expecting 0.2% m/m, Last 0.0% m/m.

16:30 - API Oil Inventories (Weekly): Last -4.8M.

The Fed (All Times Eastern)

No public appearances scheduled.

Today's Earnings Highlights (Consensus EPS Expectations)

After the Close:  (LEN)  (2.18),  (WOR)  (.70)

At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long AVGO and NVDA equity.