Peace Sells and the Market's Buying It; Keep Close Eye on S&P, Amazon Charts

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U.S.-based financial markets rallied sharply again on Tuesday. The war that provoked a just as sharp selloff? The selloff associated with the ability of agentic artificial intelligence and the ability of AI to wipe out not just occupations but disrupt entire industries? Not Tuesday's problem. Not a very recent problem, either. As the closing bells down at 11 Wall St. and up at Times Square rang their last on Tuesday, the S&P 500 had rallied for nine out of the past 10 days. Likewise, the Nasdaq Composite has now rallied for eight of the past 10 daily trading sessions. Looking out to the mid-majors, the Russell 2000 (small caps), Dow Transports and Philadelphia Semiconductors have all posted nine green-candle sessions in 10.

It gets better. Those Dow Transports, which were pounded by higher fuel costs, are now up 22.5% year to date and closed on Tuesday in record territory. The S&P 500 is now up (+1.85) for 2026 and closed just 0.5% shy of a new record high. It goes on. The Nasdaq Composite is also green year to date and closed 1.6% short of a new record intraday high. Party on, dudes.

It has been the peace process in the Middle East that has brought these markets back, just as it had been the lack of a peace process that had driven them lower. On Tuesday, Pres. Trump told the New York Post that discussions with Iran were "happening, but, you know, a little bit slow." The president called the New York Post back a short while later and said, in reference to Islamabad, Pakistan (home of this past weekend's peace negotiations):

“You should stay there, really, because something could be happening over the next two days, and we’re more inclined to go there. It’s more likely, you know why? Because the field marshal is doing a great job.”

The "field marshal" is Pakistani Army Field Marshal General Asim Munir, of whom Pres. Trump added, “He’s fantastic, and therefore it’s more likely that we go back there. Why should we go to some country that has nothing to do with it?" 

“I just think he’s a great guy, that guy. The field marshal. You know he ended the war with India, saved 30 million people." 

Hmm, tell us how you really feel. Obviously, the American president feels that his team can work with this guy and this guy, who must have a relationship with the Iranian side, feels that peace is possible or even probable.

In a separate interview on Tuesday, Pres. Trump told ABC News, “I think you're going to be watching an amazing two days ahead. I really do.” 

Then, the president told the Fox Business Network that he sees the war as “close to over.” In response, front month WTI Crude traded with an $88 handle overnight after trading above $105 per barrel as recently as Sunday night. The U.S. Ten-Year Note has yielded just 4.24% overnight after paying nearly 4.37% on Sunday evening.

So Close

Almost believing
This one's not pretend
Let's go on dreaming
For we know we are
So close, so close
And still so far

- Menken, Schwartz (from Disney's Enchanted), 2007

Marketplace

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 gained 1.18%, while the Nasdaq Composite tacked on 1.96%, Both the Dow Transports and Philly Semiconductors scored daily gains of better than 2%. The semis were led by Micron  (MU)  and Nvidia (NVDA)  while the transports were led by the airlines.

Eight of the 11 S&P sector SPDR exchange-traded funds closed out the Tuesday session in the green, led by the Discretionaries  (XLY) , Technology  (XLK)  and Communication Services  (XLC)  as growth was once again favored. Energy  (XLE) , for obvious reasons, rode out the session in the caboose.

As for breadth, winners beat losers by a two-to-one margin at the NYSE and by a rough nine to four at the Nasdaq. Advancing volume took a 59.4% share of composite NYSE-listed trade and a more commanding 77.1% share of composite Nasdaq-listed activity. Aggregate trade was strong across the board, increasing by 14.9% on day-over-day basis across Nasdaq-listings and gaining 5.2% across NYSE-listings. Volume also increased across the membership of the S&P 500.

Related: After a Huge Rally, FOMO Has Set In. Are Investors Late to the Party?

The Chart​s

Readers will note that the S&P 500 ​just put together a two-day reconfirmation of the bullish trend after a brief pause on Friday. 

The index has pulled away from its 50-day  simple moving average in classic pivot / slingshot-type action as portfolio managers have been forced to increase long-side exposure and risk managers have been forced to stand down due to the strength of the technicals to include indicators such as Relative Strength and the daily moving average convergence divergence.

Just be a little bit on the alert this day and perhaps for a couple of sessions. Why? Technically speaking, though the keyword readers will hop on the peace train should all go well, the index is approaching "double top territory." That's potentially bearish, though I don't know if such sentiment can take hold right now. For those who need to see what I am trying to communicate here, if realized, it would look like this:

Am I nervous? No. I only fear God and bad things happening to the people I care for. ​That said, there is an unfilled gap down to the 200-day line. Rock on.

Econo-Boost!

The markets, in rally mode on Tuesday, thanks to the peace process, did get a boost from producer-level price inflation (or lack thereof) for the month of March. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its producer price index data for March on Tuesday and inflation for the month was surprisingly cool to the touch.

On a month-over-month basis, headline PPI for March printed at growth of 0.5%, in line with February, and far below the 1.1% growth that had been the consensus view. Core PPI (ex-food & fuel) landed at growth of just 0.1% m/m with the street looking for growth of 0.5%.

On a year-over-year basis, headline PPI landed at +4%, well below the 4.6% growth that had been feared, while core PPI printed at +3.8%, in line with February and below the expected growth of 4.1%. In response, futures markets trading in Chicago moved the next rate cut from October 2027 to September 2027. Big whoop. Much more importantly, these same markets all but priced out the possibility for a rate hike in 2026.

Amazon Rocks

On Tuesday, Amazon  (AMZN)  said it had agreed to acquire Globalstar  (GSAT)  in a deal that would value the mobile satellite services provider at $11.57 billion or $90 per share. Globalstar is 20% owned by Apple  (AAPL) . Almost simultaneously, Amazon and Apple announced an agreement to continue to provide satellite services for iPhone and Apple Watch to include emergency SOS. Amazon shares traded up 3.8% on Tuesday and are now more than 25% off of their late March lows.

​Like with the larger indexes, Amazon investors now have to be alert to the possibility of a large double top that has come after smaller double bottoms and double tops that have proven prophetic. ​AMZN did enjoy the technical benefit of a swing traders' or mini-golden cross last Thursday where the 21-day exponential moving average crosses above the 50-day SMA. Does AMZN pause now? The shares are indeed overbought at this point and there is an unfilled gap down to the 50-day SMA. A pause would not surprise.

Economics 

(All Times Eastern)

07:00 - MBA 30 Year Mortgage Rate (Weekly): Last 6.51%.

07:00 - MBA Mortgage Applications (Weekly): Last -0.8% w/w.

08:30 - Import Prices (Mar): Expecting 0.8% m/m, Last 1.3% m/m.

08:30 - Export Prices (Mar): Expecting 2.2% m/m, Last 1.5% m/m.

08:30 - Empire State Manufacturing Index (Apr): Expecting 0.5, Last -0.2.

10:00 - NAHB Housing Market Index (Apr): Expecting 37, Last 38.

10:30 - Oil Inventories (Weekly): Last +3.081M.

10:30 - Gasoline Stocks (Weekly): Last -1.589M.

4:00 - Net Long-Term TIC Flows (Feb): Last $15.5B.

The Fed

(All Times Eastern)

08:30 - Speaker: Reserve Board Gov. Michael Barr.

1:45 p.m. - Speaker: Reserve Board Gov. Michelle Bowman.

2:00 p.m. - Beige Book.

Today's Earnings Highlights 

(Consensus EPS Expectations)

Before the Open:  (ASML)  (6.64),  (BAC)  (1.02),  (MS)  (3.02),  (PNC)  (4.16)

After the Close:  (PNC)  (4.16)

At the time of publication, Guilfoyle had no position in any security mentioned.