Mind the Bitcoin Trapdoor: Sellers in Control Until $103,450 Reclaimed
Range is king for the Bitcoin price below $100,000 and here is is where real supply should bite.
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Bitcoin’s tape is heavy.
If we look at the decline from November 10 to November 20, the first real responsiveness showed up around $80,000 — more than 20% beneath where the price was 10 days earlier.
Since then, we’ve been chopping around, and the more time price spends grinding between the mid-$80,000s and mid-$90,000s, the higher the odds this resolves lower toward $70,000. That area matters because it aligns with prior resistance (now support?) from March 2024 to October 2024. Also note that the half-back level from the November 2022 low to the October 2025 high is a bump above $70,000.
I’m treating $84,500 as the line that indicates when gravity takes over. A couple of closes beneath $84,500 and sellers return with a vengeance.
On the upside, $100,000 is the obvious psychological hurdle, but the spot that should attract real supply is near $103,450, which is the halfway point of the drop from above $126,000. If price can’t chew through that, sellers will keep leaning into strength, and Tom Lee’s gazillion-dollar price targets will have to wait.
Speaking of social media...
Be careful of what you read and believe on X. Most of it is noise and a waste of time. Bitcoin bulls will always see a buy regardless of money flows or liquidity because their worldview requires it, and every week, a new voice declares the road to the moon or to $1 million.
The haters are just as dug in. Peter Schiff will keep preaching the same sermon whether Bitcoin is up, down or sideways. That said, never say never. BlackRock launched iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) , JPMorgan is pushing ahead with blockchain and stablecoin rails, and Vanguard now allows clients to access regulated spot bitcoin ETFs, such as IBIT. If those firms can evolve, anyone can. The truth is, opinions move when money and clients do.
Your posture should match your horizon. If you truly believe the long-term path is $500,000 to $1 million, and you’re not a trader, trying to jump in and out to dodge routine volatility is a poor use of energy. I’m a trader, and I run a split approach. I hold a core IBIT position in a long-term account that I do not sell (I add to the position on weakness). Separately, I trade IBIT, both common and options, to monetize the range that the market is gifting us.
Currently, the trend is bearish. We have lower highs from the $126,000 peak, repeated failures under $100,000, and rallies getting sold into the $94,000 to $96,000 band. Until BTC reclaims $100,000 and then chews through $103,450, assume a range with sellers controlling the top and responsive buyers doing the heavy lifting below.
At the time of publication, Byrne was long IBIT and short IBIT calls.
