Market Scoreboard: Mag 7 Doubles Average S&P Stock as 2025 Ends Soft
The ‘bigger is better’ theme worked during the year and AI remained a winner. Now, here's my best advice as we look ahead to 2026.
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The major indexes are indicated lower for the fourth consecutive session as 2025 draws to a close. The much-anticipated Santa Claus rally has been a dud so far, leading to further weakness as traders abandon hopes of padding year-end gains and begin closing up shop.
Action on this final day of the year will be driven by last-minute positioning as investors brace for the year ahead. Many institutional players are currently finishing the process of liquidating positions and realigning portfolios to attack their benchmarks the moment the new year begins. While major investment banks largely forecast a continuation of the bull market, expectations are more tempered. The consensus points to increased volatility and potential shifts in market leadership.
The 2025 Scoreboard
With only one trading session remaining in 2025, here is how the major benchmarks stand:
| Ticker | Index | YTD Return |
|---|---|---|
MAGS | Magnificent Seven | 24.90% |
QQQ | Nasdaq 100 | 22.06% |
SPY | S&P 500 (Market Cap) | 18.74% |
DIA | Dow Jones Industrial Average | 15.67% |
IWM | Russell 2000 (Small Caps | 14.36% |
RSP | S&P 500 Equal Weight | 12.35% |
The most notable takeaway from these figures is that the Magnificent Seven doubled the performance of the average stock in the S&P 500. Large-cap tech easily outpaced both the blue-chip DJIA and the small-cap Russell 2000. In 2025, bigger was undeniably better, and AI remained the dominant winning theme.
Defying the Forecasters
At the start of the year, there was significant concern that President Trump’s tariff program would stifle the economy and lead to a dismal year for equities. However, the economy proved far more resilient than anticipated. Despite a sharp correction in April, the market maintained its primary uptrend for the remainder of the year. Once again, the biggest losers were the economic forecasters, who continue to struggle with the market's unpredictability.
Looking Ahead to 2026
No one knows exactly what 2026 has in store, but one certainty remains: there will be opportunity. Astute traders can thrive regardless of whether the indexes trend higher or lower. The market doesn't need to go "straight up" to be profitable; it only needs to provide volatility.
The beauty of the stock market is that it is a game of infinite opportunity. There is always a new setup or a fresh theme on the horizon. Our job is to remain patient, wait for the right situation to develop, and then seize it aggressively.
My best advice for the year ahead is to embrace the difficulty. Investing and trading are not supposed to be easy; they require hard work, constant vigilance, and emotional discipline. The reason the stock market offers the potential for immense wealth is precisely because it is challenging. There is no other business that offers this level of opportunity to those willing to do the work.
If you are heading out early to celebrate, I offer my best wishes for 2026. Let’s make it our best year yet.
At the time of publication, Rev Shark had no positions in any securities mentioned.
