In This Either/Or Market, Can Bitcoin Stay on the Bullish Side of the Uptrend?
Let's dig into the charts of Bitcoin, Financial Services, and two key tech names.
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Do I really have to discuss Bitcoin again today?! It seemed as though it was all anyone could talk about on Monday. Now, everyone is trying to figure out if it is a precursor to some other moves in other groups or stocks.
My take is that it has all been one trade. The speculative trade. Quantum, Bitcoin, Rockets, AI, Coins, etc. Oh, and let’s not forget the craze we saw a few months back of –what was it?—Oh yes, Bitcoin Treasury stocks, whatever that is.
Look, Bitcoin did not break that long-term uptrend line on Monday. The reason I draw in thick lines is because if they are going to break, they need to do so like they mean it, and so far, BTC hasn’t done so.
As I said yesterday, and I will reiterate it, I like it when well-watched lines break, and this is now becoming a well-watched line. (after the 100,000 flat line we looked at yesterday). But what I prefer to focus on is still the Daily Sentiment Index (DSI), as it is now at 18. Break that line, and we ought to get some panic. And a DSI that goes under 15. As a reminder, when it comes to the DSI under 15 and we have yellow flashing lights, under 10, and it’s a buy.
As for stocks, I think Monday was mixed. And I don’t mean mixed in that the drugs rallied and technology didn’t. Technology stocks felt more like there was a lack of buying rather than any real selling. The selling was heavy, though in financials.
A few months ago, we looked at some of the asset manager charts like Blue Owl and (KKR) . Blue Owl has broken its April lows, but let’s check in on KKR because it is hanging by a thread. Thus far, it hasn’t cracked that low from Friday, November 7th, but it is threatening.
I see folks talking about the asset managers, but not much about the big banks. The Bank Index is at a support line. To me, these are the charts to watch.
Recall, we looked at Visa around the same time. It kept holding that 335 area, but in the last few days, it has given way.
The Home Builders (ITB) has also broken.
So, while everyone is so busy fussing over the fact that NVDA is down a few percentage points heading into earnings (and still clearly in an uptrend), I would point out that the unprofitable technology stocks have already been crushed for the most part, and the profitable ones, aside from a few, haven’t seen much selling in the last few days.
Even Oracle, which has fast become the poster child for what could go wrong in AI spending, has been milling around for a few days.
It remains an Either/Or Market.
