Goldman Sends Market a Warning After Iran Oil Shock

Goldman Sachs Could Bounce in the Short Run, but Longer-Term Losses Are Possible

The market mood is improved for a second consecutive day on Tuesday. The Nvidia (NVDA) induced volatility added some complications yesterday and the stock is trading flat today, but large-cap technology, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the Magnificent Seven (MAGS) are consolidating nicely and building support at current levels. That kind of quiet, constructive action after a volatile session is exactly what you want to see.

The best news on Tuesday is the breadth. Only about 25% of stocks are in negative territory, which means three out of four names are participating in the move. Strong broad breadth of this kind typically means the Russell 2000 (IWM) is leading and that is the case, with small caps up roughly 0.75%. When the smaller names participate it is a sign the buying is broad rather than concentrated in a handful of index heavyweights.

Oil is higher but bonds are stronger and interest rates are pulling back, which suggests some of the more acute inflation fears are diminishing at the margin. The Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday afternoon will put the inflation question front and center once again, so enjoy the relative calm while it lasts.

The Story the Media Is Missing

On Monday, I highlighted a list of stocks that have been acting well throughout this difficult market environment. From my perspective that is the most important story in this market right now and it is one that almost nobody in the financial media is covering. The coverage stays focused on the indices, the macro headlines, and the Iran situation. That is the forest. The trees tell a different story.

There has been heavy rotational action but a meaningful number of individual stocks have held up well and look technically sound. My optimism is increasing as a result and I am starting to do a little more buying, mostly slowly and incrementally. The shopping list work of the past two weeks is starting to pay off.

Note on Downside Risk

I have attached a video today discussing the heightened downside tail risk that Goldman Sachs recently flagged. This is my first time incorporating video and I hope to make it a regular feature going forward. Let me know what you think.

I thought I’d experiment with a video. I am new to this, but I highlighted some comments from Goldman about tail risk pic.twitter.com/NR5ZGZ2kjZ
— James DePorre (@RevShark) March 17, 2026

The Goldman work is worth understanding clearly. Even as the near-term picture improves, Goldman's quantitative team has outlined specific downside scenarios tied to the Iran oil shock that the market is not fully pricing. The snap-back potential if good news arrives is substantial. So is the downside if the worse scenarios materialize. Knowing both sides of that setup is useful as you size positions and manage risk.

New Buy: Opendoor Technologies

One stock I am adding today is Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) . This was a cult favorite in Summer 2025 before the chart deteriorated. The technical picture has improved considerably and the stock is breaking above resistance on Tuesday. I have a small initial position and will add if the momentum looks sustained.

At the time of publication, DePorre was long OPEN.