market-commentary

2025's Penultimate Session Is a Dreary One as End-of-Year Rally Fails

The new 12-month lows have expanded as investors lock in tax losses and it might be best to sit out until 2026.

James "Rev Shark" DePorre·Dec 30, 2025, 4:09 PM EST

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The penultimate trading session of 2025 was slow, low-volume and dreary. The indices finished close to flat, while breadth was negative with just 40% of stocks advancing. Interestingly, there were 65 new 12-month highs but 213 new 12-month lows, which is a function of investors taking tax losses before the end of the year.

There are still no signs of a Santa Claus rally, which was the primary topic of discussion a week ago. It looks like traders jumped the gun, and now there are no buyers left to drive the action. The Santa Claus rally tends to be self-fulfilling to some extent. Once it starts, it draws in more buyers who are looking for some upside action, but if it never gets moving, then traders quickly exit and sit on the sidelines.

We will see if anything happens on New Year's Eve, but I suspect that traders won't be interested in doing much until next week. This is an extremely tough action to trade because it is so thin and random. It is easy to take some hits in good stocks due to illiquidity. Speculative action isn't taking place, so there is no good reason to stick around.

I'll see you on Wednesday morning. Don't forget that we have a full-day session. Have a good evening.

At the time of publication, DePorre had no positions in any securities mentioned.