Alright, folks, that is it for me today. I have an AMAT earnings call to listen to and am also getting an early jump on the Pro Portfolio’s Weekly Roundup. 

Thanks for letting me play once again in the sandbox. Hope to see you ‘round these parts again before too long. Dougie is back at the wheel tomorrow. 

Position: TheStreet Pro Portfolio is long AMAT shares. 

As you can see in the table below, we have a modicum of earnings reports after today’s close. While you may be a customer or even a fan of Boot Barn (BOOT), odds are the market’s focus will be on April-quarter results and July-quarter guidance from Applied Materials (AMAT). 

Back in February AMAT shared it sees its semiconductor systems business up more than 20% in calendar 2026. Coming off the increased multi-year outlook from Taiwan Semi (TSM) this morning and Cisco (CSCO) resetting its expected 2026 orders from hyperscalers to $9 billion from $5 billion, we’ll want to see AMAT lift that “more than 20%” figure. 

And an interesting story about that table. I attempted to use Microsoft Excel’s Data from Picture function three times to recreate it, but each time Excel stalled out. Using Claude, I uploaded the image and asked it to convert it to an Excel table. Done in seconds. 

Just saying…

Position: The Street Pro Portfolio is long AMAT shares. 

New York lawmakers are planning a new tax on New York City homes purchased in cash for at least $1 million, according to people familiar with the state budget negotiations.

The lawmakers are also considering expanding the tax to all-cash purchases over $1 million in New York, including those in the suburbs and upstate, people familiar with the matter said.

More on this here

Position: None

Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) has launched a unified interface for trading prediction markets across three platforms — Kalshi, CME Group (CME), and its subsidiary ForecastEx.

As it’s been explained, IBKR’s user interface aggregates similar contracts from all connected prediction market exchanges into one searchable interface, enabling users to trade contracts across all three prediction market exchanges from a single platform.

Per the company, its prediction markets will initially focus on election outcomes, climate events, and economic indicators.

Position: None

Tema, one of a growing number of ETF providers offering funds that track thematic trends, has ​filed with the U.S. securities regulator to roll out a ‌new exchange-traded vehicle offering exposure to prediction market platforms and the trading infrastructure that supports them.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is already considering whether or not ​to approve some two dozen ETFs by other firms seeking ​to repackage prediction market questions into a product investors ⁠can trade as easily as a stock, offering an alternative way ​to play the boom, in this space.

Thank you Reuters for that. 

Per the filing by Tema, it plans to invest in publicly traded companies that are either prediction market platforms or trading companies. That likely means a mix of exchanges, brokerage firms, ​market-making companies, and potentially financial data providers.

I’m mixed on this, but it aligns with my “Guilty Pleasure” investment theme.

Position: None

April 15th may be Tax Day but tomorrow, May 15, is the last day for companies to submit their 13F filings for the end of the March 2026 quarter. 

Advanced Micro Devices’ (AMD) 13F filing showed it owned 65,516 shares of Marvell (MRVL) valued at roughly $6.5 million at the end of March. The filing also revealed AMD retained positions in Sanmina (SANM), with 1.15 million shares, and ABSCI (ABSI), where it held 5.71 million shares. In addition, AMD disclosed a new position in Xanadu Quantum Technologies (XNDU) valued at approximately $1.5 million.

Amazon’s (AMZN) recent filing earlier this month showed it held shares in Astera Lab (ALAB), Beta Technologies (BETA), Marvell (MRVL), Nautilus Biotechnology (NAUT), and Rivian (RIVN). 

Looking at the SEC’s EDGAR website, Nvidia (NVDA) has yet to post its 13F and in some respects that may be one of the more interesting ones. 

The thing I wonder about is how many investors are tracking these public company investments when they think about their price targets and valuation framework. My gut say “probably not many” and that’s probably because against Amazon’s market cap near $2.9 trillion, its $2.66 billion investment in those five companies is peanuts. 

It’s also interesting and confirming at the same time to see AMD and Amazon owning MRVL shares. 

Boy I would love me some of those peanuts. 

Position: The Street Pro Portfolio is long AMZN, MRVL, NVDA shares. 

Cerebras Systems (CBRS) opens at $350 after pricing IPO at $185/share.

Position: None

From TheStreet Pro’s Bob Lang, talking about the massive breadth divergence…

There are different ways to analyze market breadth, but I have found 2-3 styles that tell me a great deal about how a trend is working and when there are differences with price. Let’s remember, the price action is the king of all indicators, no matter what other indicators might be telling you. Certainly we can throw up a yellow caution flag if there are divergences between, say price and breadth. Could this be a test? Maybe, but the market needs to prove that it is not significant.

On that accord, we had a noticeable difference in new highs and new lows that is being talked about. On 5/12 and 5/13 you can see the new lows beat out new highs for the first time in weeks, a stark divergence. That explains the early weakness on Tuesday but not the strength on Wednesday. These divergences between new highs and lows are not common but when they do happen it throws a caution flag in the air. This is due to the lack of momentum in new highs, and the push by mega cap-weighted issues moving higher while smaller stocks are trailing. Overall market momentum is slowing down, even as the indices advance with new all-time highs.

The Hindenburg Omen requires this diverging characteristic among others. There is a long track record of weakness following the “Omen.” When it triggers there is an “ominous” moment of selling — usually — and markets move down helplessly. No indicator has a perfect record, though and we have had many Hindenburg Omens over the past several years that scared many investors/traders out of the markets but did not pan out. Divergences like this however are real and we should pay attention at all times.

Below is the criteria for a Hindenburg Omen to occur:

New Highs and Lows: The number of NYSE new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows must both exceed 2.2% (or 2.5%) of total NYSE issues.

Higher Highs/Lows Ratio: New highs cannot be more than twice the new lows.

Upward Trend: The NYSE index must be in an uptrend, defined as being above its 50-day (or 10-week) moving average.

Negative Sentiment: The McClellan Oscillator must be negative, indicating a decline in overall market momentum

You can see the source for that data in the chart footer, but for what it’s worth, AAA shows the national average for a gallon of gas at $4.534 as of today (May 14).

Position: None

What did Trump, Xi, and crew dine on at today’s summit?

Reportedly , Beijing roast duck, ​ and beef ribs with dessert options for American guests that included tiramisu, fruits, and ice cream, and a “trumpet-shell shaped pastry.”

Position: … Hungry

U.S. import and export prices surged in April by the most in four years on oil-market pressures tied to the Iran conflict. This adds further evidence of higher inflation on top of this week’s April consumer price index and producer price index figures. 

The import price index rose 1.9% MoM, the biggest increase since March 2022.  

Export prices rose 3.3% from the prior month, also the most in more than four years.

And when we strip out petroleum, import prices rose 0.7% month-over-month in April, pointing to other factors than energy driving inflation pressures. 

Other factors like tariffs and supply chain issues perhaps?

Position: None

Netflix’s (NFLX) ad-supported subscription tier now reaches 250 million global users, the company announced at its Wednesday Upfront presentation, up from 94 million last year. (Netflix stopped reporting subscription numbers in Q1 2025.) 

Its ad-supported tier will debut in 15 new countries this year. 

Netflix also secured another five NFL games, including a Thanksgiving game the company had been publicly gunning for and a Week 1 match in Australia.

Other announcements included an aggressive push into advertising across new content formats. Ads will soon come to its recently launched vertical video feed, as well as its video podcasts—though it’s unclear whether ad-free subscribers will be exposed to these ads. New personalization tools will also debut to improve contextual targeting.

Position: The Pro Portfolio is long NFLX

This morning Visa (V) published its updated look at the U.S. economy:

Over the last couple of months, we assumed the conflict would be short lived. This month we have once again revised this view and expect the conflict to last through early summer. While we think most of the upside to oil prices has subsided, it will likely take some time for traffic to begin moving through the Strait of Hormuz and for oil production to recover enough to rebuild global inventories. As a result, we now see oil and gasoline prices remaining elevated through at least Q3 of this year, resulting in higher inflation for longer. 

This revised set of assumptions has a few material impacts on our outlook for this year and next. For starters, we now see inflation peaking around 3.9 percent on a year-over-year (YoY) basis this quarter as measured by the PCE deflator. The duration of elevated oil and gas prices has also led us to upwardly revise core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, suggesting that higher energy prices will be passed on through other consumer goods as well. The good news is that the labor market still appears to be on solid footing. With higher headline and core inflation and job growth continuing, we no longer expect any interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year and expect only one 25-basis-point cut in late 2027. 

Higher inflation also has the effect of taking a bite out of consumer spending as real (inflation-adjusted) income growth is expected to reach stall speed towards the middle of this year, weighing on real consumer spending. We now expect the economy to grow 2.2 percent YoY this year, down from our estimate of 2.5 percent last month. Inflation pressures should ease next year, which should help lift real income growth once again, but only modestly. We are not expecting much change in next year’s growth outlook, with GDP likely expanding at the same 2.2 percent pace as this year.

In the back of Visa’s May report, on page 3, thumbing through its quarterly forecasts, we find the following:

Q1 2026 GDP: 2.0%

Q2 2026 GDP: 2.3%

Q3 2026 GDP: 2.3%

Q4 2026: GDP: 2.6%

Q1 2027: 2.1%

Q1 2026 CPI: 2.7%

Q2 2026 CPI: 3.8%

Q3 2026 CPI: 3.7%

Q4 2026 CPI:  4.2%

Q1 2027: 3.7%

Position: None

Underneath the pop we’re seeing the shares of Versant (VSNT) we’re seeing things that confirm a few of our thoughts over at the Pro Portfolio.

First is the continued shift to digital content consumption, which has been highlighted rather nicely in the monthly data published in Nielsen’s The Gauge. While Cable commanded 24.5% of the market back in April 2025, as of February of this year that fell to 20.0%. Where did it go? Streaming, which accounted for 48.0% of TV viewing  as of February 2026.

The top three platforms?

Google’s (GOOGL) YouTube with 12.7% of total U.S. TV viewing

Netflix (NFLX) at 8.4%

Disney (DIS) gets the bronze with 5.0%. 

Getting back to Versant, linear distribution revenue for its pay TV networks — which include CNBC, MS NOW and the Golf Channel as well as USA, E!, Syfy and Oxygen — was down roughly 7%.

Because advertisers look to spend where consumer eyeballs are, it’s not surprising to see Versant’s advertising revenue fell 5% year over year. 

Position: The Pro Portfolio is long GOOGL, NFLX.

Cisco (CSCO) CEO on CNBC – There is a networking supercycle that is starting now.

Nice confirmation between the linkage of rising AI adoption and usage, and the demand for networking. 

As I pointed out recently, the autonomous driving market will be another tailwind for data center and networking given the amount of data that will be created, processed and consumed. 

Position: None

Retail sales in the United States increased 0.5% in April 2026 over the previous month.

Retail sales in the United States increased 4.90 percent in April of 2026 over the same month in the previous year.

Retail-only sales rose 5.2% year over year, with notable strength in non-store retailers:  +11.1%, the strongest month in February-April

Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, & book stores: +13.4%

Gasoline stations: +20.9% (no surprise given the climb in gas prices)

Electronics & Appliances: +7.6%

Clothing & accessories: +5.5%

Food services & drinking places up 2.7%, a tad better than March but weaker than February.

Declines in furniture and department stores. 

Those figures are very good for the Pro Portfolio’s positions in Amazon (AMZN), TJX (TJX), and of course, Costco (COST). 

Costco’s U.S. adjusted comp sales rose 8.0% – Clearly continuing to win consumer wallet share in the current environment, and poised to do so as consumers grapple with inflation headwinds. 

TJX reports next week, and tonight’s earnings from Ross Stores (ROST) will help frame or possibly re-frame expectations. 

Position: TheStreet Pro Portfolio is long AMZN, COST, TJX. 

The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell 4.4% y/y in April, but rose 0.4% month over month (m/m), building on a 10.4% m/m gain in February and a 3.0% gain in March.

Per the good folks that publish the data, the normal seasonal trend would put the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index down just 1% y/y in May.

Positions: None.

JPMorgan is out with bullish comments on Netflix (NFLX), reiterating its “Overweight” rating and $118 price target.

The action follows Netflix’s fourth annual advertising upfront. JPMorgan is positive on Netflix’s reach, content strategy, and improving advertising technology. And sees its upfront announcements demonstrating “progress towards building a scaled advertising strategy and highlight the view of Netflix becoming “Global TV.”

The Pro Portfolio recently added to its NFLX position at $88.64 on May 11. 

Position: TheStreet Pro Portfolio is long NFLX

A few more price target increases for Nvidia (NVDA) ahead of its earnings report next week:

Cantor Fitzgerald takes its target to $350 from $300

UBS resets its at $275 from $245.

Position: TheStreet Pro Portfolio is long NVDA

Klarna’s guidance disappoints

While Klarna’s (KLAR) March-ending quarter results topped consensus expectations, its guidance falls short:

It sees Q2 revs of $960 million to $1.00 billion vs. the $1.06 billion consensus and the $1.01 billion posted in Q1 2025. 

Many questions on this. Is Klarna’s reach slowing, or is it more indicative of the consumer’s appetite for additional credit and spending? Perhaps share loss to Affirm (AFRM)?

Data in the New York Fed’s latewst Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit found:

Aggregate delinquency showed little change in Q1 2026, with 4.8% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency. Transitions into early delinquency held steady for auto loans, but ticked down for credit cards, from 8.7% annually to 8.6%, and for mortgages from 3.9% to 3.8%. Transitions into serious delinquency were mostly unchanged for auto loans and credit cards but accelerated slightly for mortgages from 1.4% to 1.5%.

That makes me go hmmm when it comes to Klarna.

Position: None

Upgrades:

AN2 Therapeutics (ANTX) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Leerink, target $9

Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan, target $68

Commercial Metals (CMC) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS, target $89

Compass Minerals (CMP) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan, target $30

Gladstone Land (LAND) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Lucid Capital, target $11.50

Illumina (ILMN) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Daiwa, target $155

Orsted (DNNGY) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley

Starbucks (SBUX) upgraded to Buy from Hold at TD Cowen, target $120

Staar Surgical (STAA) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush, target $40

Downgrades:

Amphastar (AMPH) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo, target $19

Autohome (ATHM) downgraded to Hold from Buy at HSBC, target $17.30

Bandai Namco (NCBDF) downgraded to Sell from Buy at Goldman

Camden Property (CPT) downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform at Scotiabank, target $95

Doximity (DOCS) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo, target $18

Doximity (DOCS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies, target $19

Doximity (DOCS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG Research

Doximity (DOCS) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird, target $18

Doximity (DOCS) downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc

Everpure (P) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup, target $90

Flex LNG (FLNG) downgraded to Reduce from Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux, target $25

JBS (JBS) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan, target $18.50

KT Corp. (KT) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities, target $23.08

MAA (MAA) downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform at Scotiabank, target $120

Prestige Consumer (PBH) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer

Solv Energy (MWH) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS, target $50

Solstice Advance Materials (SOLS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Vertical Research; target $90

Tango Therapeutics (TNGX) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies, target $27

Whirlpool (WHR) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman, target $53

Wix.com (WIX) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo, target $54

Wix.com (WIX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup, target $66

Wix.com (WIX) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital, target $60

Initiations

Academy Sports (ASO) initiated with an Overweight at Stephens, target $78

Brightstar Lottery (BRSL) initiated with a Neutral at BNP Paribas Exane, target $12.60

Cipher Mining (CIFR) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies, target $32

DraftKings (DKNG) initiated with an Underperform at BNP Paribas Exane, target $20

Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) initiated with an Underperform at BNP Paribas Exane, target $80

Hut 8 (HUT) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies, target $156

Kalaris Therapeutics (KLRS) initiated with an Outperform at Wedbush, target $17

Riot Platforms (RIOT) initiated with a Hold at Jefferies, target $24

Suncrete (RMIX) initiated with a Buy at Roth Capital, target $21

TeraWulf (WULF) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies, target $28

Position: None

We have another positive data point for chip demand as well as semi-cap equipment ahead of quarterly results tonight from Applied Materials (AMAT):

TSMC the world’s largest contract chipmaker, expects the global semiconductor market to exceed $1.5 trillion by 2030, topping its previous forecast ​of $1 trillion, according to its presentation materials ahead of a tech ‌symposium on Thursday.

Position: The Street Pro Portfolio is long AMAT.

Here we go.. as of now, equity futures point to a positive market open and we’re getting headlines about Pres. Trump’s visit with China’s Pres. Xi.

US clears H200 chip sales to 10 China firms as Nvidia CEO looks for breakthrough

US Says China Wants More Of Its Oil to Cut Middle East Reliance

Trump, Xi Discussed Raising Purchases of American Crops, US Says

China Renews Import Permits for US Beef Plants as Xi, Trump Meet

But also…

Xi tells Trump that mishandling of Taiwan could spark conflict

White House has few tools for gas-price relief as Iran war drags on

And..

Cerebras set for debut in stock market gripped by AI mania

Cisco jumps on strong revenue forecast, AI push with job cuts

As you can see, we’re going to have a lot to talk about today, and we’ve got more than 2 hours until the market open. 

Get some coffee, and let’s get ‘er done. 

Position: None