Daily Diary

Doug KassDoug Kass
DATE:

Update on a Bloom-ing Short

New short Bloom Energy (BE) at (in premarket at $265.39).

More next week.

Positions: Short BE VS

BY Doug Kass · Jul 9, 2026, 10:27 AM EDT

Morgan Stanley Short

Back shorting Morgan Stanley (MS) at $223.04.

Starting small and scaling on strength.

Positions: Short MS VS

BY Doug Kass · Jul 9, 2026, 10:20 AM EDT

Back to Shorting GRNY, JOET

Back shorting (GRNY) $27.80 and (JOET) $46.

Short GRNY S JOET S

BY Doug Kass · Jul 9, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT

SPY, QQQ Shorts

Back shorting the indexes after the two day rally:

* SPY (SPY) $748.64

* QQQ (QQQ) $722.34

Positions: Short SPY VS QQQ VS

BY Doug Kass · Jul 9, 2026, 10:11 AM EDT

The Brutal Divergence in Technology

Check out the brutal divergence between the hyperscalers and the memory equities this morning!  (AMZN -$4, GOOGL -$5, META -$20 , MSFT -$8 awhile chip stocks are the “world’s fair.”)

This back and forth (and lack of predictability) is the reason I have been shying away from shorting the Nasdaq recently. 

I am old enough to remember when every panelist on Fin TV was long MAG7. (They probably sold the top!)

For emphasis, this is a superb market to trade opportunistically but not so great for the buy and hold crowd.

Tough for homegamers.

LONG AMZN VS GOOGL VS MSFT VS

BY Doug Kass · Jul 9, 2026, 10:10 AM EDT

Programming Note

I have in an 9:30 a.m. meeting.

Should take about thirty minutes.

Radio silence.

Positions: None.

BY Doug Kass · Jul 9, 2026, 9:45 AM EDT

Less Than Meets The Eye

* S&P EPS growth, that is….

The business media has been ecstatic about strong, aggregate S&P EPS growth – serving as the foundation of the bullish argument.

But, take out Micron (MU) and Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings, all the non recurring gains (in the hyperscalers) from unrealized investment gains coupled with the (one time) energy sector contributions (from much higher oil prices – which will likely become more difficult two quarters out) – and things look much different and far less robust.

Positions: None 

BY Doug Kass · Jul 9, 2026, 9:30 AM EDT

Charting the ETF Action in the A.M.

Positions: None.

BY Doug Kass · Jul 9, 2026, 9:25 AM EDT

Demand is Elastic

Positions: None.

BY Doug Kass · Jul 9, 2026, 9:20 AM EDT

Charting the Premarket Percent Movers in the Morning

Positions: None.

BY Doug Kass · Jul 9, 2026, 9:10 AM EDT

Upside, Downside Movers in the Morning

Upside:

-AEHR +18% (receives follow-on FOX-XP wafer-level burn-in system order from lead silicon photonics customer)

-ALNY +18% (strength following disappointing Phase 3 CARDIO-TTRansform data from AZN, IONS)

-ENVX +17% (appoints Michael Vyvoda as COO)

-SMPL +15% (earnings, guidance)

-BBIO +11% (strength following disappointing Phase 3 CARDIO-TTRansform data from AZN, IONS)

-FCEL +11% (signs MoU with Siemens for fuel cell-based power generation collaboration)

-CECO +6.9% (JPMorgan Chase and Co Initiates CECO with Overweight, price target: $130)

-MU +6.7% (plans up to $3B investment to strengthen US semiconductor supply chain in collaboration with GlobalWafers)

-UCTT +6.5% (appoints Michael Keogh as CFO)

-BE +6.2% (rejects Hunterbrook Media report claims on financial results, accounting and scandium oxide supply)

-CBRS +5.8% (expands European data center capacity)

-MRVL +5.8% (sector strength)

-SNDK +5.1% (sector strength; hearing price target raise from Wedbush)

-TENX +5.1% (to present LEVEL trial data at ESC Congress 2026)

-NBIS +5.0% (strength following META headline on doubling compute capacity)

-INMD +4.8% (Steel Partners offers to acquire InMode at $16.75/shr in cash)

-PENG +4.6% (earnings, guidance)

-AVGO +4.4% (strength following META headline on doubling compute capacity)

-MARA +4.3% (acquires Matagorda County, Texas powered land site from HIF)

-CRWV +3.7% (strength following META headline on doubling compute capacity)

-AMD +3.5% (sector strength)

-CAT +3.0% (momentum)

-FIVE +2.4% (hearing Mizuho Securities Raised FIVE to Outperform from Neutral, price target: $220)

Downside:

-IONS -21% (Phase 3 CARDIO-TTRansform misses primary endpoint for eplontersen in ATTR-CM)

-FBRX -8.2% (FB102 Phase 1b vitiligo study data)

-AZN -7.8% (Phase 3 CARDIO-TTRansform misses primary endpoint for eplontersen in ATTR-CM)

-IBM -4.8% (SBUX reportedly uses AI to develop in-house software solutions to reduce reliance on Microsoft and IBM software)

-CRM -4.6% (KeyBanc Capital Markets Cuts CRM to Sector Weight from Overweight)

-RXT -4.1% (expands Palantir partnership for regulated and sovereign enterprise AI; files mixed shelf; indeterminate amount; earnings, guidance)

-LEVI -4.0% (earnings, guidance)

-META -3.8% (AI chip going to production)

-MAT -2.7% (Goldman Sachs Cuts MAT to Sell from Neutral, price target: $12)

-PEP -2.5% (earnings, guidance)

BY Doug Kass · Jul 9, 2026, 9:00 AM EDT

(Literally) The Market Without Memory From Day to Day

A pattern: Memory/semis up big, memory/semis down big, then up big….

Wash, rinse and repeat.

In the market without memory from day to day.

Great for dispassionate and opportunistic traders – not so great for the buy and hold crowd.

Positions: None.

BY Doug Kass · Jul 9, 2026, 8:50 AM EDT

More on Cannabis (Part Deux)

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Jul 9, 2026, 8:30 AM EDT

Treasury Auctions, Fed Speakers, Economic Calendar

TREASURY AUCTIONS

11:00AM: Treasury announces a 3 and 6 month bill auction; 

11:30AM; Treasury hosts a $100B 4 and a $95 8 Week Bill Auction;

1:00PM: Treasury hosts a $22B 30-Year Bond Auction; 

2:00PM: Treasury buyback (liq support)

FED SPEAKERS 

9:00AM: Fed Bank of New York President Williams (Voter) participates in keynote moderated discussion before “The Future of Market Liquidity and Functioning” Workshop hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, NYC (Other details TBA.Open to in-person press.) 

1:30PM: Fed Bank of Dallas President Logan (Voter) moderates “Market Liquidity and Leverage in a Digital Age” panel before “The Future of Market Liquidity and Functioning” Workshop co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, NYC (Other details TBA. Open to in-person press)

ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR TODAY

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Jul 9, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT

Tweet of the Day

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Jul 9, 2026, 7:45 AM EDT

Howling About AI and the Fed Minutes

Wolf Street howls about AI’s contribution to the domestic economy.

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Jul 9, 2026, 7:15 AM EDT

We’re Living in a Powder Keg and Giving Off Sparks

Every now and then, I get a little bit lonely
And you’re never coming ’round
(Turn around)
Every now and then, I get a little bit tired
Of listening to the sound of my tears
(Turn around)
Every now and then, I get a little bit nervous
That the best of all the years have gone by
(Turn around)
Every now and then, I get a little bit terrified
And then I see the look in your eyes

– Bonnie Tyler, Total Eclipse of the Heart

A daughter of a coal miner born in Wales, she sounded like a combination of John Fogerty and Rod Stewart.

I thought about her most famous song, Total Eclipse of the Heart, many times in the context of my ursine market view:

Together we can take it to the end of the line
Your love is like a shadow on me all of the time (all of the time)

I don’t know what to do and I’m always in the dark
We’re living in a powder keg and giving off sparks

RIP Bonnie Tyler.

Bonnie Tyler, singer famed for ‘Total Eclipse of the Heart,’ dies at 75

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Jul 9, 2026, 7:00 AM EDT

From The Street of Dreams

Consensus long Exxon Mobil (XOM) has its price target reduced by JPMorgan from $173 to $158 this morning.

(Caution: This is Halftime’s Jim Lebenthal’s favorite energy stock).

Position: None 

BY Doug Kass · Jul 9, 2026, 6:45 AM EDT

Not Broadening Out

Despite pleas of broadening out, the equity market is teetering on a disbroadening.
Here were yesterday’s stats:

* SPY    -0.29%

* QQQ  +0.27%

* IWM   -0.89% 

* RSP   -1.22%

To me, key to the broadening-out thesis would be continued strength in financials, which was nowhere to be found:

* JPM -$8

* C – $3

* KRE challenging (to the downside) some important support.

Position: Short JPM (S), C (S)

BY Doug Kass · Jul 9, 2026, 6:35 AM EDT

Beware the Loud Footsteps of Market Structure

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Jul 9, 2026, 6:25 AM EDT

Priceless

We remain short of SpaceX (SPCX):

Position: Short SPCX (VS)

BY Doug Kass · Jul 9, 2026, 6:15 AM EDT

Still Overbought

The S&P Short Range Oscillator remains in overbought (as it’s been for weeks) at 2.16% vs. 3.18%.

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Jul 9, 2026, 6:05 AM EDT

The Slippery Slope of Volatility

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Jul 9, 2026, 5:55 AM EDT