Daily Diary

Doug KassDoug Kass
DATE:

Monday’s After-Hours Advancers and Decliners

After-Hours % Advancers

After-Hours % Decliners

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 4:45 PM EDT

Closing Market Stats for Monday

Closing Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Closing S&P 500 Heat Map

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 4:28 PM EDT

It’s Raining Bulls (Hallelujah!)

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 3:42 PM EDT

Dan Ives Takes a Dive

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 3:30 PM EDT

Covered My Index Shorts

With S&P cash +22 handles (and near the day’s lows) I have covered the balance of my index shorts for a gain:

* SPY $739.24

* QQQ $715.18

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 3:23 PM EDT

Things I Did Today

Here are today’s things:

* I shorted the indices:

 SPY at $743.26

 QQQ at $718.08

* Covered some SPY at $741.18 and $716.57 (I didn’t report this one promptly!)

* Shorted GRNY at $27.18 and JOET at $44.66.

* Added to VRNO long at $1.135.

* Shorted GS at $1,053.42 and MS at $215.02

Position: Long VRNO (S); Short SPY (S), QQQ (S), GRNY (S), JOET (S), GS (VS), MS (VS)

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 3:14 PM EDT

Gary Marcus Tweet

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 2:42 PM EDT

Rotten Apple?

Apple’s (AAPL) presentation was rotten.

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 2:15 PM EDT

Tech vs. Financials

Tech (XLK) vs Financials (XLF) at 1:13 PM:

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 1:35 PM EDT

Late Morning Charts and Stats

– NYSE volume 13% below its one-month average;  
– Nasdaq volume flat to its one-month average;  
– VIX index:  down 14.92% to 18.30

Positions: None.

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 11:19 AM EDT

More Tales From Nvidia: Is NVDA a Business or Stock? (Issue 201!)

It’s very interesting.  

I suppose Nvidia (NVDA) is not too different than Strategy’s Michael Saylor.  

Does Nvidia run a business, or a stock?  Is Jensen Huang a CEO or an equity market strategist and stock promoter?  

Jensen Huang is obviously brilliant.  He knows nearly the whole sector is a circular financing that has become too big for him to keep financing himself.  It is now moving from being dependent on privately funded circular financing deals and the nuttiness of the credit markets, to needing the amounts of capital that only the equity markets can provide.  Google (GOOGL) and Meta (META) have just implicitly told you that too, via their equity sales and theoretical planned equity sales. Open AI has told us it is even graver and more desperate than I suggest, because the company apparently is already back to begging the government again for money. 

At any rate if all of one significant down day in the equity markets is enough to spook the Nvidia CEO into full Saylor waving pom-poms mode, it shows you they all know how desperate the situation is and how dependent the scheme is for fresh capital inflows at greater scale from the public markets to keep the game going.  

The Nasdaq advances by +300% (and multiples are in unheard of territory) and then down 4% — and it is a “selloff” and a buying opportunity?

Positions: None.

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 10:50 AM EDT

TLT Hits Reverse

TLT (TLT) reverses to the downside – higher rates are a catalyst to taking on more short exposure.

Positions: None.

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 10:41 AM EDT

Shorting GS, MS

Shorting GS (GS) $1053.41 and MS (MS)$215.02.

Positions: Short GS VS MS VS

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 10:19 AM EDT

Shorting JOET, GRNY

Back shorting JOET (JOET) $44.62 and GRNY (GRNY) $27.14.

Positions: Short JOET VS GRNY VS 

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT

Tales From Nvidia: AI Is Now More Expensive Than Human Labor (Issue #200!)

Imagine a business that provided free humans to write code. Call that Business A.

Of course, every end customer would hire the free humans to write the code. They would review it is as productivity enhancing. Call these guys Business B.

Business A, if it had all of its losses funded (including by its suppliers), would grow like a weed, because the Business Bs would keep hiring the free humans. But, once Business A started charging a rate where they could make a profit on their humans, the Business Bs would stop hiring them and Business A would be out of business.

This is where AI is with respect to writing code. It may be OK at it (and even though it is better than it was, it is still not perfect and has issues and it’s mostly non-breakthrough production level code), but there are massive losses up and down the system to do it.

The provider (OpenAI, etc.) loses scads of money, their suppliers (the DC guys) lose tons of money. The only ones making money are the semiconductor guys, who also really do not make as much money as people think if you back out the cash they have to send out to fund all of their customers to keep the game going!  

What if accounting rules required Nvidia (NVDA) to count investments in their own customers as a cost of goods (expenses) and to amortize them into their P&Ls, how much money would Nvidia really be making?

The cash flow statement shows a very different story than their earnings do. 

It is crazy what is being done — it is a way to move the discount off the P&L.

Anyway, the article below has it right.  The free human analogy I used is pretty much exactly what AI is:   

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 9:45 AM EDT

Going Less Small on Shorts

I have moved from very small to small-sized index shorts just now:

* SPY (SPY) $744.68

* QQQ (QQQ) $719.44

Positions: Short SPY S QQQ S

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 9:30 AM EDT

Charting the Premarket Movers (Updated)

Chart from 9:10 a.m. ET

Positions: None.

BY Adam Smith · Jun 8, 2026, 9:26 AM EDT

Upside, Downside Movers in the Morning

Upside:

-TNGX +46% (reports positive initial Phase 1/2 vopimetostat combination data in MTAP-deleted and RAS-mutant metastatic PDAC)

-MPAA +36% (earnings, guidance)

-ABAT +30% (wins DOE appeal to reinstate grant for Tonopah Flats Lithium Project refinery)

-OCC +22% (earnings, color)

-NRIX +17% (Roche licenses Nurix’s bexobrutideg for up to $2.3B)

-GLW +9.3% (enters multibillion-dollar pact with Amazon to power data centers in US)

-EH +8.9% (authorizes $30M ADS and ordinary share buyback)

-CGEM +8.4% (positive update from EULAR dataset; adds additional support to CLN-978 efficacy/safety profile in SLE/RA)

-MRVL +8.3% (to join S&P 500 index)

-SRAD +7.3% (signs multi-year global agreement with Kalshi)

-SMCI +6.8% (hearing strength attributed to Bluefin note indicating company won $5.2B deal from xAI)

-MSTR +6.1% (acquires 1,550 BTC for $101.3M)

-NVTS +4.9% (introduces Isolated Through-Hole Package for SiC MOSFETs, Enabling Direct-Cooled Thermal Management)

-SNDK +4.5% (receives broker price target increases)

-FLEX +4.2% (to join S&P 500 index)

-ENOV +2.9% (launches DonJoy Spinamic Hybrid Scoliosis Brace in the US)

-VOYA +2.5% (hearing Raymond James Raised VOYA to Strong Buy from Market Perform, price target: $117)

-CTSH +2.4% (Wedbush, Inc. Raised CTSH to Outperform from Neutral, price target: $70)

-CPB +2.2% (earnings, guidance)

Downside:

-GOCO -37% (files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy)

-WIX -10% (cuts guidance, reducing workforce)

Positions: None.

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 9:21 AM EDT

Charting ETF Action in the A.M.

Positions: None.

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 9:15 AM EDT

Boockvar Notes on Peace Deal, Extended Moving Averages, Used Vehicles

From Peter Boockvar:

Just a few things

With further complications in the Middle East, understanding this was never going to be an easy thing to resolve and finish, I keep remembering the comments from Exxon and Chevron a few weeks ago about dwindling inventories. In both believing in the big risks to the upside in price and that whenever this gets fully resolved, and it will, not believing there is much risk to the downside, we remain long oil and gas stocks.

However Meta decides to raise more capital from here, from the story Friday, on the heels of the Google raise, we’re reminded again how expensive this build out is and these companies that were once cash flow gushers are no longer.

As for the stock market selloff, it doesn’t take a technician to see how extended above the moving averages we were in the semis and other parts of the AI infrastructure trade that just needed a catalyst to correct back. And considering we’re still well above the 50 day in many cases, there could be more to this in the short term.

Micron stock to use as one example:

Ahead of the May CPI report on Wednesday, Manheim released its May wholesale used vehicle index on Friday that rose 3.6% y/o/y and .3% m/o/m. They said, “Wholesale value trends continue to normalize from a strong start to the year, as we start to move into summer months and consumers continue to contend with higher gas prices. The Manheim Index overall remains higher against last year, yet it wasn’t as strong as we normally see within the month. As values were much higher in February and March, they started to normalize and depreciate in May, with non-seasonally adjusted prices falling a bit over one percentage point in the month. But the big picture shows good balance in supply and demand, with days’ supply sitting at pretty seasonal levels, even if it remains a bit below last year.”

Also, “we continue to see dealers bidding up the prices of EVs faster than Non-EV values at Manheim, consistent with gas prices that remain higher by 38% against last May.”

Lastly, “Affordability concerns continue, as we’ve seen higher appreciation in older units at Manheim this year – a trend we’ve been calling out recently. Additionally, some of the most affordable segments are showing the highest gains so far this year with compact cars higher by 12.3% in non-adjusted values since December, the highest of any major segment.”

Here were some macro tidbits from the ABM Industries earnings call Friday, a stock we own and up 6.8% in a tough tape, and a provider of a variety of services to many different end markets:

Offering janitorial services to office buildings in particular, “the prime office recovery continues to gain traction. Although as mentioned, the market is still experiencing some softness on the West Coast. The US office leasing is approaching 2019 levels. Net absorption turned significantly positive in the first quarter, the strongest since 2020 and prime vacancy rates continue to tighten. New supply remains extremely limited with the construction pipeline nearly 90% below its 2020 peak.”

West Coast markets they are referring to are LA, San Francisco and Seattle, “they’re probably two or three times worse than New York City. And if you were to think about those markets, think West Coast is kind of tech heavy, whereas East Coast is banking, legal. And from a return to work standpoint also as you guys know, like West Coast, when it comes to the tech sector, they’re not returning to work the same way financial services and legal is.”

Just one data point of note overseas and that was the somewhat dated April factory order number from Germany. It was weaker than expected, falling 3.8% m/o/m vs the expected drop of 2% and March was revised down by 5 tenths to a 4.5% gain. Declines were seen in auto, electrical equipment and machinery. The economy ministry said “There are growing signs that rising energy and commodity prices, as well as significantly heightened geopolitical uncertainty, are increasingly leading to lower demand, particularly for capital goods. Against the backdrop of rising costs and uncertainties, as well as growing supply chain bottlenecks, industrial activity is likely to continue to show only modest growth in the coming months.”

Positions: None.

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 8:58 AM EDT

My Tweet of the Morning

I call B.S. (again):

Positions: None.

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 8:45 AM EDT

Charting the Morning Percent Movers

Positions: None.

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 8:35 AM EDT

My Comment of the Day

Dougie Kass

2m ago

I am shorting the Indices on a scale now… 

Positions: Short SPY Vs. QQQ vs. 

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 8:23 AM EDT

Treasury Auctions, Economic Calendar

Treasury Auctions and Actions

11:00 a.m.: Treasury buyback announcement (liq support); 

11:30 a.m.: Treasury hosts an $89B 3 and a $77B 6-Month Bill Auction; 

3:00 p.m.: Treasury inv. class auction data

Economic Calendar

Positions: None

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT

Where Are the Hunt Brothers When Silver Needs Them

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT

Back Shorting the Indices

With S&P futures up by +53 handles I am back shorting the indices:

* SPY  $743.00

* QQQ $714.95

Position: Short SPY (VS), QQQ (VS)

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 7:35 AM EDT

Nothing to Be Concerned About Here

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 7:30 AM EDT

Tweet of the Day (Part Trois)

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 7:15 AM EDT

I Call B.S. to SpaceX

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 7:05 AM EDT

Tweet of the Day (Part Deux)

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 6:50 AM EDT

I Will Not Be Buying the SpaceX IPO

* At some point I will be shorting it…

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 6:35 AM EDT

Tweet of the Day

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 6:05 AM EDT

Kass vs. Niles (On Comparing the AI Boom to the Dot-Com Boom)

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 5:55 AM EDT

Oscillator Closer to Neutral

The S&P Short Range Oscillator is closer to neutral at 1.22% vs. 2.69%.

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Jun 8, 2026, 5:45 AM EDT