U.S. markets had a really nice day, all things considered. The Diary had a rough start today, but our team got together and figured that out, thank goodness. The S&P 500 gained 1.02% while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.89%. 

It seems that investors got over the fact that the war or at least the blockade impacting the Middle East might go on for a bit. Crude surged ahead of the open this morning and then more or less sold off over the balance of the session. Treasury securities found a bid as well.

All 11 S&P sector SPDR ETFs managed to close out the day in the green with nine of them gaining at least 1% and three gaining at least 2%. The Industrials  (XLY)  led the way, while Tech  (XLK)  brought up the rear. 

Five member stocks of the S&P 500 managed gains of at least 10% for the regular session, led by Quanta Services  (PWR)  and Qualcomm  (QCOM) . Could it be that earnings, which have been hot, and profit margins that are running at 15-year highs, are starting to matter more than day-to-day headline risk? Perhaps.

Have a great evening, gang. April was a good month and we needed it. Tomorrow is Friday and I think some of us could use a weekend right about now. It's always a pleasure to fill in for Dougie when I get the chance. Thank you for having me and God bless you all.

Sarge

Positions: None

Since integration (1947), only three Major League hurlers have started 43 games or more in a single season. This incredible feat has been accomplished six times by these three individuals. Name these three starters...

1) Wilbur Wood of the Chicago White Sox started 49 games in 1972, 48 games in 1973 and 43 games in 1975. Wood went 24-17, 24-20 and 16-20 in those years, respectively.

2) Mickey Lolich of the Detroit Tigers started 45 games in 1971 going 25-14.

3) Phil Niekro of the Atlanta Braves started 44 games in 1979 and 43 games in 1977, going 21-20 and 16-20 in those seasons.

Note: Though they all received votes, none of these pitchers ever won a Cy Young Award. 

In 1883 and 1884, Old Hoss Radbourn of the Providence Grays made 76 and 75 starts in back-to-back seasons. Incredibly, Radbourn pitched 73 complete games in 1884, the year the Grays won the NL pennant and defeated the original New York Mets (AA pennant winners) in what was then called the World Series.

Since integration (1947), only three Major League hurlers have started 43 games or more in a single season. This incredible feat has been accomplished six times by these three individuals. 

Name these three starters... 

Longtime Sarge-fave Advanced Micro Devices  (AMD)  is set to release its first-quarter financial results after the close of business on Tuesday, May 5. Cinco de Mayo. Party. 

Fun Fact... AMD CEO Lisa SU, like your author, grew up in the same general area of the Queens section of New York City around the same time. She was a few years younger than I, so I did not know her, but I always take pride when a Queens kid does well.

For the quarter, Wall Street is looking for adjusted EPS of $1.29 on revenue of about $9.9 billion. Results like that would measure up exceptionally well to the $0.96 posted by AMD for the year-ago comp on annual revenue growth of roughly 33%. 

Interestingly, of the 36 sell-side analysts that I know to track AMD, 27 have revised their earnings estimates higher since the start of the period, while six have reduced those estimates. Three analysts have left their estimates unrevised.

The Chart

Readers will see that AMD ran sideways from October 2025 into April 2026, creating a half-year-long basing period of consolidation. Some call this a "rectangle" pattern. Early in April, the stock took back its 50-day SMA and 21-day EMA after using the 200-day SMA (red line) as consistent support going back to the start of March. The shares moved sharply higher as April wore on and have run into some choppy trade as earnings approach.

Looking at the indicators, Relative Strength has been technically overbought territory for more than two weeks. Below the chart, the daily MACD has gone semi-parabolic. Within that indicator, the histogram of the 9-day EMA is running well above the zero-bound. In addition, the 12-day EMA and the 26-day EMA are also running well into positive territory as well with the black line above the gold line. That's key. This particular indicator is flashing what I see as a medium-term bullish signal. As long as this indicator remains hot, I would not let a red-hot reading for RSI scare me. 

I am long the stock and have been for the better part of several years. I have taken some off for protection's sake as my price target was $334 based on previous activity and I do not have a new target just yet. 

Position: Long AMD equity. 

SoFi Sees 8 Price Target Moves as Wall Street Reacts to Earnings | TheStreet Pro

Positions: Long BBBY, EVLV, MBLY, OCUL, ONDS, PL, PLTR, RKLB, SIDU, SNAP SOFI, EVLV equity; Short OCUL, ONDS, SNAP, SOFI calls. 

AI darling and twice Sarge "stock of the year" Palantir Technologies  (PLTR)  will release its first-quarter financial results after the closing bell on Monday, May 4, also known as "Star Wars Day." After a two-to three-year run for the ages, the stock, which has struggled of late, is still up 27% over the past 12 months. However, PLTR is down 24% over the past six months.

For the period to be reported, Wall Street is looking for adjusted EPS of $0.28 on revenue of about $1.55 billion. Results like that would compare more than well to the $0.13 posted by Palantir for the year-ago comp on year-over-year revenue growth of better than 74%. That would be the eleventh consecutive quarter of accelerating annual sales growth for the company. 

Of the 22 sell-side analysts that I know that track PLTR, 18 have revised their earnings estimates higher since the start of the quarter, while zero have reduced their estimates. Four analysts have left their estimates unrevised.

Readers will note that shares of Palantir sold off from late December into mid-February. The stock then developed a Double Bottom pattern of bullish reversal that ran from the start of 2026 into the present with a $162 pivot. That pivot just happens to appear at the peak of what became a very small Double Top pattern of bearish reversal. This pattern formed in the middle of that Double Top.

The stock is battling to try to retake both its 21-day EMA and 50-day SMA. Recapturing both of these lines would help to get both swing traders and portfolio managers on the same page and force them to increase long-side exposure. One item to watch would be the 200-day SMA, which has proven to be stiff resistance as that Double Top developed.

Looking at the indicators, Relative Strength is almost perfectly neutral and appears to be almost disinteresting. The daily MACD is struggling as well. Within that indicator, the histogram of the 9-day EMA is resting just barely in negative territory, while the 12-day EMA and the 26-day EMA are both running below the zero-bound with the black line below the gold line. 

While the technical pattern and setup appear to be less than bullish to me, I remain long the stock, but I have taken a little something off ahead of earnings. My current price target is $194. 

Position: Long PLTR equity

Forget 'Sell in May.' Under Trump, market could be poised for summertime gains


Positions: none

Amazon Price Target as In-House Chip Business Hits $20 Billion | TheStreet Pro

Positions: Long AMZN equity.

Q1 GDP landed at +2.0% q/q, SAAR, falling short of the 2.3% consensus.

 
March Personal Income printed at +0.6% m/m, beating expectations.March Personal Spending met expectations at growth of 0.9% m/m.

 
Q1 Employment Cost Index hit the tape at +0.9% q/q, above the +0.8% expectation.

 
Initial Jobless Claims printed at 189K, well below the consensus call for 215K.

March PCE prints at +3.5% y/y, as expected. March Core PCE prints at +3.2% y/y, as expected.

Positions: none

S&P Futures: +42 vs FV.

Nasdaq Futures: +193 vs FV.

US Ten-Year Note: 4.399%

US Two-Year Note: 3.906%

US Three-Month T-Bill: 3.678%

WTI Crude: $104.80

Gold: +1.78%

Silver: +2.82%

Bitcoin: +1.08%

US Dollar Index: -0.52%

Positions: Long physical gold & silver

This morning's Market Recon column has been published:

Oil Overshadows Earnings, Powell Digs In, U.S. Plots Next Move on Iran | TheStreet Pro

Position: Long AMZN equity

S&P Futures: +29 vs FV.

Nasdaq Futures: +129 vs FV.

US Ten-Year Note: 4.4%

US Two-Year Note: 3.9%

US Three-Month T-Bill: 3.678%

WTI Crude: $105.24

Gold: +1.97%Silver: +2.9%

Bitcoin: -0.29% 

US Dollar Index: -0.66%

Position: Long physical gold and silver

Good Morning!

Time to rock. The Fed. Powell. The War. The hyperscalers. PCE inflation later. Personal Income & Spending on the way. Apple  (AAPL)  too. 

You kids better hurry up and get those push-ups in. Coffee, push-ups (or whatever is reasonable for you), repeat. Rock and roll. We have been granted a new day, gang. Let's not take that gift lightly.

For the time has come, to stand up straight. To defend those we love. To set a shining beacon of an example of what adult maturity looks like for those who follow. Be who your children think you are. You can't be the smartest, the fastest or the strongest. You can be pure of heart and mind. Make it so. Onward and upward, gang. Lock & load. Thursday beckons.

I am the one they call "Sarge" and I am filling in for Dougie today. Rah.