After-Hours % Advancers

After-Hours % Decliners

Closing Volume

- NYSE volume 14% below its one-month average

- NASDAQ volume 12% below its one-month average

- VIX index: down 3.31% to 18.09

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Closing S&P 500 Heat Map

With S&P cash + 11 handles, I have added to my index shorts:

*  (SPY)  at $715.22

*  (QQQ)  at $663.96

Position: Short SPY (S), QQQ (S)

Monday After the Close

Tuesday Pre-Open

Here are today's things:

* Shorted more indices:  (SPY)  at $713.75 and  (QQQ)  at $663.65.

* Shorted  (MU)  at $506.13,  (AMD)  at $353.00 and  (INTC)  at $84.62. 

 * Sold  (DIS)  at $103.71. 

Position: Short SPY (S), QQQ (S), MU (VS), AMD (VS), INTC (VS)

Investors (passive and active) are ever more conditioned to holding on to positions these days — rejecting most negative influences (war, improvisational government policy, supply shocks, higher inflation, rising rates, elevated oil prices, a massive U.S. debt load, valuations, etc.).

My thoughts and response:

* The disappearance of fear and doubt is what typically happens near or at the end of bull market cycles.

* The ursine and contrarian crowds are the subject of ridicule.

* The notion of risk vs. reward becomes irrelevant based on the general expectation that buyers will buy higher.

* The term "margin of safety" is also disregarded in a market landscape that replaces the sense of value with the idol of momentum.

* FOMO (fear of missing out) becomes the common investment denominator — with "buying the dip" a close second.

* The pessimists are now converted bulls (filled with renewed hubris, piss and vinegar).

* The shorts, well, they are like the flightless Dodo bird, an endangered species.

But, inevitably, something will happen "out of the blue" to upset the uber optimistic consensus.

It always does when the herd gets uncomfortably large.

Position: None

I'm back shorting indices with S&P cash -3 handles:

*  (SPY)  $714.01

*  (QQQ)  $662.81

Position: Short SPY (S), QQQ (S)

Global yields continue to rise.

This used to be a warning signpost.

No more.

Fear and doubt has left the building.

- NYSE volume 2% below its one-month average;

- Nasdaq volume 7% below its one-month average;

- VIX index: down 0.43% to 18.63

Positions: None.

* A trip to Disneyland or Disney World is getting too expensive for the "average family"

* Our research suggests that the price of oil has now hit a "tipping point"

* Our research suggests top and bottom-line disappointments lie ahead for the company...

Higher oil prices for longer will adversely impact Disney's  (DIS)  theme-park operations as well as other areas of the company (including but not restricted to Disney's cruise ships).

Already faced with sky-high theme park admission prices, the vulnerable lower part of the K-shaped domestic economy is likely to dent Disney's results for the next several quarters relative to consensus expectations.

I have taken a profit in my Disney long — and sold out my holdings.

I plan to repurchase shares of Disney if they fall on the anticipated disappointing results over the balance of the year.

Position: None

Causes and Conditions - Hussman Funds

Positions: None.

From Peter Boockvar:

Thank you/What I'm watching/Global bond yields/Interesting from P&G and SLB

Thank you to the Secret Service, the DC police and the FBI for protecting everyone, including some that are my friends, in that room from that man.

Specifically with earnings this week from Meta, Google/Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon, I’m watching for whether the level of CapEx expected to be this year at about $650b combined versus $410b in 2025 will be maintained or increased (I’m not expecting a decline but that semi trade really unwinds if there is). If maintained, it could be a reason for the semi trade to take a breather anyway considering the epic run. Also, Meta and Google are mostly advertising companies so I want to hear about the state of their global business, especially after February. And with Amazon, how is their customer responding to the jump in gasoline prices with respect to their other spend.

The news that Kevin Warsh’s confirmation vote can now go ahead also likely gave Jay Powell confidence to confirm his end of May golf tee times. In the meantime, ahead of this week’s swan song meeting and gatherings at other central banks (ECB, BoE and BoJ in particular), global bond yields are moving higher. The 10 yr JGB yield closed at the highest level since 1997 at 2.48%. The 10 yr German bund yield, up 2.3 bps today to 3.02% is 7 bps from a 15 yr high. The 10 yr UK gilt yield, up by 3 bps today to 4.94% is 5 bps from a level last seen in 2008.

10 yr JGB Yield

10 yr Bund Yield

10 yr Gilt Yield

Still not enough price incentive it appears for US crude oil drillers as the Baker Hughes rig count fell by 3 rigs to 407 and back to exactly the number it stood at on 2/27, the weekend before the war started. We know E&P companies are looking at the back end of the futures curve and not willing to respond to the current front month which is changing a lot daily and certainly will again when the war ends.

Crude Oil Rig Count

To a few earnings calls of note.

From Proctor & Gamble and whose stock rose about 2% Friday as they reported beats to both the top and bottom line estimates:

“Organic sales increased more than 3% versus the prior year. Volume increased 2 points, pricing was up 1 point and mix was flat for the quarter.”

“We delivered broad based growth across the business with each of our 10 product categories growing organic sales...Growth was also broad based geographically with each of our 7 regions growing organic sales.” North America in particular saw 4% sales growth.

“we are maintaining our fiscal ‘26 guidance ranges across organic sales growth, core EPS and adjusted free cash flow productivity. However, where we will land within those ranges has become more uncertain given the geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. We continue to expect organic sales growth of in line to 4%.”

“Underlying global market growth for our portfolio footprint is around 2% on a value basis with a positive trend over the last two months. However, it’s unclear how much higher gasoline and energy costs will impact near term consumer spending in our categories.”

I’ve been arguing that we’re seeing a lot of pull forward of ordering post war that is helping global manufacturing. P&G said this, “the trade inventory increase we saw in March was driven by Easter timing and likely some protection against potential price increases or supply chain disruptions resulting from the conflict in the Middle East. We expect this to result in fourth quarter organic sales somewhat lower than third quarter.”

As to the higher costs to them from the war, “We now expect a headwind of approximately $150 million after tax for the fiscal from a combination of commodity linked cost inflation, feedstock exposures and logistics disruptions resulting from the conflict in the Middle East.”

Will they use pricing to offset this? Maybe. “You have broad macro cost headwinds, which are hitting everyone in the industry, which generally is demanding pricing. So typically, when you see these headwinds, the entire industry will move up in terms of pricing. And then on the other side, you have the reality that the consumer has been hit with cumulative inflation beyond anything that they’ve seen in recent history. I think the opposite ends here, the way to square that in our mind is innovation. Consumers do respond well if we give them a truly better proposition in the categories that we’re in because they see there is upside...And as we do that and we take a little bit of pricing with it, consumers respond...We give the consumer choice to either pick the innovation with a bit of pricing and the promise of better performance or stick with what they know.”

“So I don’t think we’ve lost pricing power. I think pricing power has to be earned and the way to earn pricing power is to combine pricing with truly a delightful experience for the consumer.”

From SLB, a stock we own as part of our positive stance on the energy space and up 2.6% Friday:

“It was a challenging start of the year marked by severe disruption in the Middle East that impacted our first quarter revenue and earnings. At the onset of the conflict, customer decisions to safeguard personnel and assets led to an initial wave of operational shutdowns. As the conflict persisted, further activity curtailments followed as a result of production shutdowns. The impact of these actions was most pronounced in Qatar due to force majeure and the suspension of offshore operations, and in Iraq due to the security conditions. We also experienced more gradual impact from offshore rig shutdowns in other countries in the region, driven by a combination of security concerns and export capacity disruptions.”

On what they see from here and “how we expect the market to evolve as the conflict in the Middle East is resolved. Firstly, we anticipate that oil prices will set at levels above the pre-conflict baseline. This reflects the new balance of liquid supply and demand, which has been significantly altered by more than 500 million barrels of lost production impact thus far. In this environment, energy security remains at the forefront. We expect many countries to accelerate efforts to diversify supply, strengthen domestic resource development, and rebuild strategic and commercial inventories that have been drawn down during the conflict.”

Something I’ve been arguing and that $85 is the new $65 for all of the above reasons.

“In short, the fragility of the global energy complex we are witnessing today demonstrates the strategic importance and long term value of oil and gas. Together, these dynamics are expected to support a constructive macro environment for upstream investment over the coming years.”

Positions: None.

Amazon   (AMZN)  Vs. Microsft  (MSFT)  (as terms get revised on MSFT/OpenAI agreement):

Positions: None.

  From The Divine Ms. M (Helene Meisler):

Positions: None.

Upside:

-ORKA +30% (announces Positive Week 16 Data for ORKA-001 from Ongoing EVERLAST-A Phase 2a Trial in Moderate-to-Severe Plaque Psoriasis)

-SGMT +27% (Denifanstat Phase 3 trial in acne planned for 2H26; priced 29.2M shares at $6.00)

-RMAX +21% (confirms to be acquired by The Real Brokerage Inc. at $13.80/shr)

-MANE +20% (Oral VDPHL01 Achieved Early, Consistent, and Robust Hair Growth in Positive Phase 2/3 ‘302’ Clinical Trial in Male Pattern Hair Loss)

-OGN +17% (Sun Pharma acquires Organon in cash deal valued within the $10-13B range speculated for $14/share)

-QCOM +12% (OpenAI is working with MediaTek and Qualcomm to develop smartphone processors, with Luxshare as the exclusive system co-design and manufacturing partner)

-BBIO +7.9% (Pfizer/Cipla patent settlement)

-CLF +4.8% (Iran said to suspend exports of steel slabs and sheets until May 30th)

-PTON +4.6% (SPOT introduces guided workout experiences in partnership with Peloton)

-XOMA +4.5% (confirms acquired by Ligrand for $39.00/shr or $739M)

-COHU +4.4% (Jefferies Initiates COHU with Buy, price target: $55)

-LGND +3.9% (XOMA confirms acquired by Ligrand for $39.00/shr or $739M; raises guidance following acquisition)

-JOBY +3.6% (completes NYC's first point-to-point eVTOL air taxi demonstration flights)

-VZ +3.4% (earnings, guidance)

-NTR +2.1% (Barclays Raised NTR to Overweight from Equal Weight, price target: $85)

Downside:

-CMPX -79% (Tovecimig COMPANION-002 Phase 2/3 study data)

-DPZ -5.8% (earnings; announces $1B share buyback increase)

Positions: None.

Positions: None.

Positions: None.

Source: TipRanks

Positions: None.

Treasury Auctions and Actions:

11:00 a.m.: Treasury buyback announcement(liq support);

11:30 a.m.: Treasury hosts a $77B 6-Month Bill Auction;

1:00 p.m.: Treasury hosts a $69B 2-Year Note Auction;

1:00 p.m.: Treasury hosts a $89B 3-Month BillAuction;

1:00 p.m.: Treasury hosts a $70B 5-Year Note Auction

Economic Calendar

10:30 a.m.: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (April); 

Positions: None.

How One Fund Manager Is Taking Advantage Of Wartime Volatility

* With tight stop and sized responsibly

* Semis are as overbought as at any time in history

* But this trade is not advisable for most home-gamers 

Dougie Kass

535 AM Monday Morning

Very small trading short rentals:

AMD $353 MU $506.13

Also, INTC $84.62

Position: Short AMD (VS), MU (VS), INTC (S)

Marijuana Is for Dummies - WSJ

Positions: None.

The S&P Short Range Oscillator is at 4.89% vs. 4.52%, still deeply overbought.

Position: Short SPY (S) QQQ (S)

Dougie Kass

Sunday Night Trading 806PM

Shorted:

SPY $712.71

QQQ $663.24

Added to shorts 915PM

SPY $713.77

QQQ $664.93

Position: Short SPY (S), QQQ (S)