After-Hours % Advancers

After-Hours % Decliners

Closing Volume

- NYSE volume 8% above its one-month average

- NASDAQ volume flat to its one-month average

- VIX index: down 2.35% to 26.15

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Closing S&P 500 Heat Map

Wolf Street howls about a boom/bust scenario for construction.

I have a company research call at 3:15 PM and won't be back until after the close.

BREAKING: President Trump says his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have spoken with a senior Iranian official, with potential "deal" terms emerging, per Axios.

President Trump on potential deal terms:

1. Iran committed not to pursue nuclear weapons or to enrich uranium,…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 23, 2026

Cannabis company, Tilray  (TLRY) :

Two of my faves - Guy Adami and Sir George Noble 

The End of Easy Money with George Noble

A truly great interview.

Is this the best timed trade of 2026?

At 6:50 AM ET today, $1.5 BILLION in notional value worth of S&P 500 futures contracts were bought.

This trade was so large it sent the entire index +0.3% higher that minute.

Then, 14 minutes later at 7:04 AM ET, President Trump announced… pic.twitter.com/zFdZ1sQxeq

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 23, 2026

I'm adding back to Disney  (DIS)  at $98.35.

At the time of publication, Kass was long DIS (M).

Guy and Dan on MRKT CALL.

Run, don't walk to watch the boys with humility and actionable ideas.

Let's go to the tape. 

Stocks Rip On Hopes Of Ceasefire Deal

Are Pot Stocks Poised For Rescheduling Rally... | Cannabis

Here are today's things:

(AMZN)  (BUY) $202.815 (SALE) $209.42

(GOOGL)  (BUY) $296.39 (SALE) $304.71

(META)  (BUY) $587.70 (SALE) $606.43 

(MSFT)  (BUY) $379.72 (SALE) $386.85

FINANCIALS

(APO)  (SALE) $114.02

(AXP)  (BUY) $292.60 (SALE) $305.51

(BAC)  (BUY) $46.79 (SALE) $48.07

(BX)  (SALE) $114.45

(C)  (BUY) $108.73 (SALE) $112.88

(KKR)  (SALE) $92.22

(WFC)  (SALE) $79.50

CANNABIS

(CURLF)  (BUY) $2.15

(MSOS)  (BUY) $3.61

(GTBIF)  (BUY) $6.24

(TCNNF)  (BUY) $6

CONSUMER / ENTERTAINMENT

(DIS)  (BUY) $98.90 (SALE) $100.74

(NKE)  (SALE) $52.66

(PEP)  (SALE) $151.74

(PG)  (SALE) $146.07

ETFS

(QQQ)  (BUY) $578.85 (SALE) $593.78

(SPY)  (BUY) $646.37 (SALE) $663.17

At the the time of publication Kass was Long APO S, AXP S, BAC S, BX S, C S, KKR S, WFC S, CURLF VS, MSOS L, GTBIF VS, TCNNF VS, DIS S, NKE VS, PEP S, PG S.

I'm back in the office.

Getting my sea legs back.

- NYSE volume 10% above its one-month average;

- Nasdaq volume 3% above its one-month average;

- VIX index: down 8.51% to 24.50

Moved to very large in cannabis - ETF and individual stocks combined.

I have a board meeting between 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. today.

From Peter Boockvar:

So much going on but so little to say at this point

It seems clear that the only way the Strait will be fully safe to traverse will be when the war ends. Until then and ahead of the deadline tonight, markets continue on with the war trade with only the US dollar, oil/gas and crop prices moving higher. The sharp shift higher in global bond yields is really compounding the current commodity supply challenges because of the massive amount of debt, particularly at the sovereign level, and all the levered positions out there and vulnerable corporate balance sheets. It also drags down the multiples of just about everything if sustained.

With respect to the US yield curve specifically, the fed funds futures are now pricing in an 82% chance of a year end rate increase. With the price of gold and the big selloff in response to the higher dollar and rise in real rates, according to the 14 day relative strength index it is now the most oversold since October 2023 and did bounce overnight off its 200 day moving average. The 7 day RSI is down to just 10, matching the lowest since July 2022. We are a bit less long, with almost no silver exposure, after the parabolic move up late 2025/early 2026 but are still there.

Gold 14 day RSI

Gold 7 day RSI

There continues to be a muted response in the US oil patch to the spike in prices and maybe that is because the longer end of the futures curve isn’t up nearly as much. The crude oil rig count rose by 2 rigs and now up 7 over the past three weeks. The US natural gas rig count fell by 2, though are well off their 2024 lows.

Crude Oil Rig Count

Natural Gas Rig Count

What else is there really to say as we market participants are all just a captive of the events in the Middle East. The war either continues on or ends, the Strait either reopens or it doesn’t and defining victory becomes tough to say with unfortunately the Iranian regime being so difficult to destroy.

Upside:

-APGE +13% (announces positive Phase 2 Part A 52-Week Data of Zumilokibart (APG777), demonstrating maintenance and deepening of responses with Every 3- and 6-Month dosing in Moderate-to-Severe Atopic Dermatitis)

-INSM +10% (Phase 3b ENCORE Study of ARIKAYCE (Amikacin Liposome Inhalation Suspension) in Patients with MAC Lung Disease Met Primary and All Multiplicity-Controlled Secondary Culture Conversion Endpoints)

-WRD +8.7% (earnings, color)

-FLUT +8.3% (reportedly a bipartisan pair of U.S. senators are introducing legislation Monday to prohibit entities regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, including prediction-market exchanges Kalshi and Polymarket's U.S. platform, from listing contracts related to sporting events)

-DKNG +6.7% (reportedly a bipartisan pair of U.S. senators are introducing legislation Monday to prohibit entities regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, including prediction-market exchanges Kalshi and Polymarket's U.S. platform, from listing contracts related to sporting events)

-AAL +5.8% (airline sector strength following President Trump comments postponing certain Iranian strikes)

-CCL +4.9% (leisure sector strength following President Trump comments postponing certain Iranian strikes)

-UAL +4.7% (airline sector strength following President Trump comments postponing certain Iranian strikes)

-ADI +4.1% (hearing position raised at management fund)

-NCLH +3.7% (leisure sector strength following President Trump comments postponing certain Iranian strikes)

-ONDS +3.7% (acquires World View building on prior $10M investment)

-MDB +3.5% (Mizuho Securities Raised MDB to Outperform from Neutral, price target: $325)

-USAR +3.5% (USA Rare Earth and Arnold Magnetic Technologies partner to expand U.S.-made rare earth magnet supply for critical industries)

-JBLU +3.0% (airline sector strength following President Trump comments postponing certain Iranian strikes)

-SYK +2.8% (updates cyber incident investigation)

-SNPS +2.5% (Elliott has multibillion-dollar investment in Synopsys)

-TRIP +2.5% (Tripadvisor and Starboard Value enter into Cooperation Agreement)

Downside:

-VALN -34% (along with partner Pfizer missed pre-determined statistical criteria for Lyme Disease vaccine)

-PRZO -14% (files to sell $4M registered direct offering)

-GLNG -5.5% (downside momentum)

-VG -3.9% (signs LNG supply deal with Vitol)

* To make peace come true...

… One can have a dream, baby.
Two can make a dream so real.
One can talk about being in love.
Two can see how it really feels.

… One can wish upon a star.
Two can make a wish come true, yeah.
One can stand alone in the dark.
Two can make a light shine through.

… It takes two, baby.
It takes two, baby.,
just me and you.
You know it takes two.

- It Takes Two Marvin Gaye - LIVE It Takes Two 1976

Iran has said that there has been no correspondence whatsoever with President Trump or the Administration.

While it is hard to differentiate truth from fiction on whether there has been conversations between the two countries, to quote Shakespeare in Henry IV - the better part of valor was to take off some long positions.

As Grandma Koufax used to say to me:
"Dougie, you can't go broke taking a profit."

Current pre-market price action—marked by a broad-based decline in asset prices, including 6% and 8% drops in gold and silver—reflects a persistent flight to cash. At this stage, cash has emerged as the only reliable (nominal) safe haven.#markets #economy #investing #investors

— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) March 23, 2026

Fed Speakers:

8:30 a.m.: Fed Bank of Chicago President Goolsbee (Non-Voter) Television Appearance -- CNBC Squawk Bo

Treasury Auctions

11:30 a.m.: Treasury hosts a $89B 3 and a $73B 6-Month Bill Auction;

3:00 p.m.: Treasury inv.

class auction data

Economics Calendar

IRAN TO PRESIDENT TRUMP:

“You struck our hospitals, we did not do the same. You struck our emergency centers, we did not do the same. You struck our schools, we did not do the same. But if you strike electricity, we will strike electricity.”

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 23, 2026

I have taken down by half all of my individual equity longs of the last two trading sessions.

All small sized now in all of them.

I was quoted in Charlie Gasparino's column on cannabis in Sunday's New York Post:

Pot Inc. is waiting to cash in on Trump’s marijuana reclassification — but the DOJ is still dragging its feet

"High-yield spreads rose to a 9-month high this week, and we’ve seen the largest weekly withdrawals from high-yield mutual funds since Liberation Day" --JPM

— Gunjan Banerji (@GunjanJS) March 23, 2026

On the Trump announcement I have sold out all of my index common:

*  (SPY)  $665.64

*  (QQQ)  $596.34

@realDonaldTrump

I AM PLEASE TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WITCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP

I am trading and investing dispassionately and opportunistically — in a volatile market setting which is providing wonderful opportunities.

I am also buying in the face of my perception of renewed values (especially in tech and banking) and in the face of fear (on the part of both the business media and market participants).

Those values may be surfacing, catalyzed by the intensification of the Iranian/U.S. conflict.

In my view, we are closer to the beginning of the end of conflict that at the end of the beginning. 

I am currently long 29 stocks and short 11 stocks. 

This is the greatest imbalance (of longs vs. shorts) that I have had since 2022.

The S&P Short Range Oscillator has grown more oversold at -7.00% vs. -6.61%.

The S&P 500 Technology sector is now trading below last year’s tariff-selloff lows.

As a result, Tech trades at a 21% discount to its 5-year average P/E ratio and 10% below its 10-year average, making it the most discounted sector in the S&P 500. pic.twitter.com/a5KjFDE2GT

— Duality Research (@DualityResearch) March 21, 2026

S&P 500's Daily Sentiment Index is at 22, the lowest since last April's crash.

Similar depressed sentiment readings came close to marking bottoms for $SPX pic.twitter.com/10LxaxpfMn

— Subu Trade (@SubuTrade) March 21, 2026

BREAKING: Silver has lost 43 percent of its value since January 29th. It set an all-time high of $121.67 that day. It closed Friday at $69.50. In less than eight weeks, nearly half the value of the world’s most hyped precious metal evaporated while Chinese banks sold out 600… pic.twitter.com/2AkAg2U6T4

— Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ (@shanaka86) March 21, 2026

Private credit exploded over the past decade: pic.twitter.com/AZAxCtH57w

— The Icahnist (@TheIcahnist) March 21, 2026

GS: Geopolitical risk through the years 1900-today pic.twitter.com/Y2SW5KZ2yj

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) March 21, 2026

For most of the past three years, falling energy prices had been helping to push the US inflation rate (CPI) lower. But that tailwind will soon become a headwind, with prices of Oil and Gas spiking on a YoY basis. CPI could hit 3% in March.

Video: https://t.co/QXjtf3WkP5 pic.twitter.com/2JS0IU16KM

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) March 21, 2026

This is where the market can usually fools the most people.

My sentiment index just printed 9.5. That's the lowest reading since the April 2025 bottom when it hit 6.5.

Every red dot on this S&P chart marks a reading below 9.6. Look where they land. Every single one caught a… pic.twitter.com/udXQynJ30r

— Mike (@MarketMike) March 21, 2026

$SPX Heisenberg Observation!

In the last 11 years we have seen quite a few 200dma breakdowns.

Each one of them initially led towards a bounce back to retest the 200dma shortly afterwards before failing and heading back down. And head back down quite drastically I might add.… pic.twitter.com/LAk8ydTvOa

— Heisenberg (@Mr_Derivatives) March 21, 2026

The bond market sees inflation rising above 5.3% YoY over the next twelve months. pic.twitter.com/MSJnP6SAZV

— Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) March 22, 2026

Nasdaq down to a 25x P/E
S&P 500 20x
MidCap 400 below the 20yr median once again.. 16x GS pic.twitter.com/JpCrJMGC2y

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) March 22, 2026

Whoever still thinks The Machine's AI (modern day markets) is governed by smooth/stable distributions like "moving averages" (Moving Monkeys) doesn't get it pic.twitter.com/jwp8KZ30YL

— Keith McCullough (@KeithMcCullough) March 21, 2026

BREAKING. Day 23. The war reached central Israel again this morning. Explosions confirmed in Petah Tikva. Cluster munition damage across Tel Aviv streets. In the south, rescue teams are still searching rubble in Arad from last night’s strike that injured over a hundred people,… pic.twitter.com/uWY1ZHNT3n

— Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ (@shanaka86) March 22, 2026

BREAKING: In the last 24 hours, the 2026 Iran war crossed four thresholds simultaneously. Each one would be the lead story of any other week. Together they form the architecture of an escalation spiral that has no off-ramp visible from any capital on Earth.

First. Iran struck… https://t.co/TUtADHAaNN pic.twitter.com/bWRWhrNjq4

— Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ (@shanaka86) March 23, 2026

I am initiating an investment in American Express  (AXP)  in premarket trading.

With S&P futures -55 handles, I am adding to indices ( (SPY)  and  (QQQ) ),  (C) ,  (BAC) ,  (META) ,  (GOOGL) ,  (MSFT)  and  (AMZN) .

In premarket trading — with S&P futures -50 handles — (besides the index long taken at 3 AM) I have added to Amazon  (AMZN) , Alphabet  (GOOGL) , Meta  (META)  and Microsoft  (MSFT) .

Prices will be transmitted in "Things" later today.

Sold all of my index common laws (and went small net short (delta equivalent) the indices on Friday night on the
"winding down" comments by President Trump.

On Sunday night I covered the net short indices (by going long index common against short calls).

Early Monday morning (3 AM) I went long indices: 

Dougie Kass

As I posted in Comments Section I sold out all of my Index common longs (SPY and QQQ). I wanted to emphasize that I am still short (S) Index calls - meaning I am net short the Indices, after the amazing post market rally based on Trump's "winding down" comments. '

Dougie Kass

Against my short Index calls I have just moved to delta neutral by buying:* SPY $646.98* QQQ $579.76

Dougie Kass

3AM trading longs in Indices (with s and p futures -70:

* SPY $641.90

* QQQ $573.84