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Doug Kass
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Tuesday's After-Hours Advancers and Decliners

After-Hours % Advancers

After-Hours % Decliners

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 4:50 PM EDT

Tuesday's Closing Market Stats

Closing Volume

- NYSE volume 16% below its one-month average

- NASDAQ volume 2% below its one-month average

- VIX index: down 4.51% to 22.45

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Closing S&P 500 Heat Map

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 4:35 PM EDT

Looking at the Sectors

Intraday look at the sectors all off their highs at 3:30 PM:

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 3:45 PM EDT

Adding to 2 Cannabis Names

I'm adding to  (MSOS)  at $3.85 and MSOX at $2.62.

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 12:29 PM EDT

Programming Note

I have to take a family member to a doctor's appointment at 2 PM.

And following that I have a funeral to attend.

Fun afternoon.

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 12:00 PM EDT

Late Morning Market Stats and Charts

- NYSE volume 18% below its one-month average;

- Nasdaq volume 2% above its one-month average;

- VIX index: down 5.32% to 22.26

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 11:21 AM EDT

Tweet of the Day (Part Four)

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 11:05 AM EDT

XLK (Tech) Vs. XLF (Financials)

Chart from 10:16 a.m. ET

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 10:45 AM EDT

Disney Moves

With Disney  (DIS)  returning to the living (up +$2.15) I have sold some calls against the common long.

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 10:03 AM EDT

My Goldman Gain

I have sold my  (GS)  long at $816.29 (+$21.50) for a gain.

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 10:01 AM EDT

Going Small...

With S&P cash +53 handles I am paring back some of my recent financial buys (that have gapped higher this morning) - taking position size from medium to small.

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 9:58 AM EDT

Boockvar on Air Travel, Dollar Tree Earnings, Australia Rates

From Peter Boockvar:

Some good travel news/RBA hikes/Other stuff

We’ll start with some good news today.

We saw some positive travel data from Delta and the stock is responding as they prep for a conference presentation today. In their slide deck they are “Raising revenue guidance on demand momentum” as “Consumer and corporate trends have accelerated into March” and they saw “Strength across main, premium, loyalty and MRO revenue” with “Domestic and international unit revenue growing mid single digits y/o/y.”

Higher fuel costs are though a new reality and also “March quarter non-fuel unit costs expected to be up mid-single digits y/o/y impacted by lower capacity and higher operating costs.”

JetBlue spoke too in an 8k and said “Demand for travel in the first quarter strengthened versus prior expectations, helping to partially offset additional expenses realized from operational disruptions and rising fuel costs. JetBlue is seeing demand strength for travel across both peak and non-peak periods broadly across the Company’s network. Incrementally, both premium and core cabin segments exhibited improvement within the quarter.”

After falling by 7.2% last week, Dollar Tree rallied back by 6.4% yesterday after earnings. They said this of note:

Comps were up 5% and “reflected continued ticket growth and expected decline in traffic, strong seasonal execution and high discretionary engagement with the customer.” They, like everyone, saw weather disruptions in January and February.

“We see discretionary outperformance as an indicator of customer receptivity to expanded value, with shoppers gravitating toward broader assortments and higher volume options.”

“Tariff expense increased substantially y/o/y. As we’ve discussed, we continue to actively deploy the five mitigation levers we’ve historically used to manage cost headwinds, including supplier negotiations, product reengineering, country of origin shifts, assortment adjustments and targeted pricing actions, all to maintain strong profitability while preserving value for our customers.”

And what will the impact be on the consumer of higher gasoline prices? “Higher prices at the pump impact all households. And so what we see is in the middle to higher income households, we see accelerated trade-in. So those customers are turning towards Dollar Tree. And then our core customer, the lower income shopper, our pack sizes are what really help them stretch their paycheck and make their budgets work for them. So the price impacts everyone, but for us, Dollar Tree is really that key tool that helps them manage their budgets and deal with these higher prices.”

Ahead of the Fed tomorrow, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25 bps to 4.10% as fully expected. Governor Bullock has a reputation as a hawk and she followed through. She said “We had a very robust conversation over the past two days about whether we should hold until May” to see how the Middle East situation further plays out but “If we do not act, these price pressures will spread and the eventual adjustment will be harder.” And of particular note, “Higher petrol prices will add to inflation, but they’re not the reason for today’s decision. Inflation was already too high, reflecting the fact that demand is outstripping supply...The board’s challenge is that if we don’t raise interest rates, and we’re going to see second round effects coming from petrol prices and fuel prices, they’ll get into supply chains.”

As this hike was anticipated, the 2 yr Aussie yield fell 3 bps after rising by 3 bps yesterday. The Aussie$ is higher and trades great versus the US dollar because it is considered a commodity currency. The same can be said for the Canadian dollar. So, this US dollar strength has been against some currencies and not others. The ASX was up about 1/3 of a percent.

Bank Indonesia held rates at 4.75% as expected.

Cass Freight reported its February shipments data yesterday and it rebounded 10.4% from the weather impacted January. I want to mention specifically something I highlighted when going through earnings season and that was a much reduced trucking capacity environment that was leading to higher trucking prices. And now we are going to likely have fuel surcharges on top of that. Cass said “spot capacity remains tight in early March, positioning trucking rates to accelerate.”

“With volumes still soft around the industry, supply constraints are supporting higher rates. These constraints are not just weather, but equipment and increasingly drivers.” We know there has been a crackdown on non-English speaking, non-domiciled drivers.

Overseas, the German March ZEW investor confidence index dropped dramatically to -.5 from +58.3 and sharply below the estimate of +39.2. Less impacted was the Current Situation which declined just 3 pts. ZEW said “The ZEW indicator has collapsed. The escalation in the Middle East spikes energy prices and increases inflationary pressure. This heightens the risk for the German economy that the emerging trend of economic recovery will slow down. How strong these effects will turn out depends on the intensity and the duration of the conflict. The financial market experts are skeptical that a quick resolution of the conflict will take place.”

While this was an ugly number, it is not market moving as investors focus more on the IFO index which surveys actual businesses

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 9:45 AM EDT

The Sentiment Shift

In yesterday's opening missive (Getting Less Bearish), I described the rapidly changing sentiment - from complacency to fear.

More confirmation of this from Bramo:

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 9:35 AM EDT

One System Consuming Itself

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 9:25 AM EDT

Charting the ETF Action in the A.M.

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 9:17 AM EDT

Upside, Downside Movers in the Morning

Upside:

-LIDR +32% (earnings, guidance; to join NVIDIA Halos AI Systems Inspection Lab to Advance Safety-Certified Physical AI Solutions)

-JVA +25% (earnings)

-CTRN +18% (earnings, guidance)

-OKLO +5.9% (Oklo’s Atomic Alchemy granted U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission License for isotope material)

-TNDM +5.5% (Piper/Sandler Raised TNDM to Overweight from Neutral, price target: $33)

-DAL +5.1% (raises guidance)

-UBER +3.8% (NVIDIA to launch L4 Software-Driven Robotaxis on Uber across 28 cities by 2028)

-AAL +3.7% (higher in sympathy with DAL)

-LYFT +3.5% (to make rides smarter and more efficient through Agentic AI, accelerate AV future with NVIDIA DRIVE Hyperion)

-JHG +3.3% (Victory Capital amends offer to $56.84/shr for Janus Henderson by increasing cash portion of the offer from $30/shr to $40/shr)

-MU +2.5% (in High-Volume Production of HBM4 Designed for NVIDIA Vera Rubin, PCIe Gen6 SSD and SOCAMM2)

-TH +2.5% (hearing constructive commentary from Oppenheimer)

Downside:

-ALDX -68% (receives Complete Response Letter from U.S. FDA for Reproxalap NDA in Dry Eye Disease; FDA says "application has failed to demonstrate efficacy in adequate and well controlled studies")

-LNSR -25% (announces Termination of Merger Agreement with Alcon Research, LLC)

-MVST -22% (earnings)

-TME -12% (earnings, color)

-NBIS -6.7% (expected to file for $3.8B convertible note offering)

-TSAT -5.9% (earnings, guidance)

-ASO -4.6% (earnings, guidance)

-COHR -4.3% (weakness following NVDA comments at investor event)

-LITE -3.4% (weakness following NVDA comments at investor event)

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 9:10 AM EDT

Charting the Percent Movers in the Morning

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 8:50 AM EDT

Treasury Auctions, Economics Calendar

Treasury Auctions:

11:00 a.m.: Treasury Announces a 4 and 8 Week Bill Auction;

11:30 a.m.: Treasury hosts a $50B 52-Week Bill Auction;

11:30 a.m.: Treasuryhosts a $85B 6-Week Bill Auction;

1:00 p.m.: Treasury hosts a $13B 20-Year Bond Auction

Economic Calendar:

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 8:40 AM EDT

Mag 7 Below the Moving Averages

The collection of Mag 7 constituents are now below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages:

However, I prefer the analysis of fractals over the vision of moving monkeys!

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 8:10 AM EDT

El-Erian

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT

Tweet of the Day

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 7:45 AM EDT

Credit Spreads Deteriorate Further

"Investment vision is always 20/20 when viewed in the rear view mirror."

- Warren Buffett 

Remember the observations from the perma bulls on Fin TV (especially Belski, Farmer Jim, Slink and the Floor Trader, among others) that thin credit spreads served as the foundation of their bull market outlook?

I said, at the time, that the foundations of credit were destabilizing — but the bullish cabal were encouraged by the "rear view mirror."

From Keith McCullough at Hedgeye:

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 7:35 AM EDT

More Signposts of Slugflation

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 AM EDT

Netflix Should Acquire Disney

Over the course of the last two days I have "bottom fished" in Disney's  (DIS)  shares, which have obviously been adversely impacted by higher oil prices (and its possible implications at its theme parks).

For years I have avoided Disney based on a number of concerns and headwinds — and for years Disney's stock has been an abysmal underperformer.

As I will discuss in the next week, Disney's shares are finally moving into an area that may provide more upside reward than downside risk.

I believe there is merit and optionality (albeit at relatively long odds), of a possible deal with Netflix NFLX) (after the later company lost out to Paramount  (PSKY)  on acquiring Warner Bros Discovery  (WBD) ).

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 7:10 AM EDT

Gene Munster on Nvidia

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 7:00 AM EDT

Charting the Technicals

Chart of the Day: Nasdaq

After closing at its lowest level of the year on Friday, the Nasdaq gapped higher to start the week and finished the session up over 1%.

The Nasdaq continues to hold support near 24,000, with a move back above 26,000 potentially signaling the next leg higher.

Momentum is also beginning to improve as the Relative Strength Index made a higher low, suggesting selling pressure may be fading.

The Takeaway: If support holds, 26,000 remains a key level to watch, with a reclaim signaling buyers may be regaining control.

- Yuriy Matso (@yuriymatso) / X

Bonus — Here are some great links:

Equities, Options

The Paradox of Protecting the Downside and Getting Upside

The Strength in Defensives

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 6:45 AM EDT

Day 17

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 6:25 AM EDT

From Capital Light to Capital Intensive

* Hyperscalers' free cash flow will plummet, EPS will be pressured by depreciation charges and valuations are likely to decline.

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 6:15 AM EDT

Quick Profit

S&P futures have rallied in the last two hours to only -8 handles (a recovery of +25 handles).

I have sold out the indices at a quick profit:

*  (SPY)  $668.43 (Bought at $666.24) 

*  (QQQ)  $599.33 (Bought at $597.52)

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 6:05 AM EDT

Early Tuesday Morning Trading 

* At 4:15 AM...

With S&P futures -32 handles I have taken a small trading long rental in the indices:

*  (SPY)  $666.24

*  (QQQ)  $597.52

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 5:55 AM EDT

Still Deeply Oversold

The S&P Short Range Oscillator slipped to -7.34% vs. - 7.87%.

The Oscillator is still in deeply oversold territory.

BY Doug Kass · Mar 17, 2026, 5:45 AM EDT