After-Hours % Advancers

After-Hours % Decliners

Closing Volume

- NYSE volume 4% above its one-month average

- NASDAQ volume 6% below its one-month average

- VIX index: up 12.01% to 27.14

Breadth

Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Closing S&P 500 Heat Map

I bought small Adobe  (ADBE)  (after the EPS report) at $251.76.

I have a meeting at 4:30 PM this afternoon.

I will do a rundown of "things" very early Friday morning.

Hint: I was active today.

I'm adding to Disney  (DIS)  at $99.63.

 I'm adding to Amazon  (AMZN)  at $209.70.

I'm adding to speculative cannabis company, VRNOF.

I'm back long Goldman Sachs  (GS)  at $785.93.

Back in the office.

I did a lot of buying into the whoosh lower this morning.

I am net long in exposure for the first time in almost a year — as I am seeing opportunities on a risk/reward basis.

I will be back in the office at around 130 PM.

- NYSE volume 7% below its one-month average;

- Nasdaq volume 24% below its one-month average - VIX index: up 10.24% to 26.71

From Peter Boockvar:

Quick review of Claims, Housing and Trade

Initial claims for the week ended 3/7 were little changed at 213k vs 214k last week and about as expected. The 4 week average slipped to 212k from 216k as a print of 229k drops out. Continuing claims fell to 1.85mm from 1.871mm as expected.

Nothing new here with this direct measurement of firing’s (remaining low) and indirect spotlight on hiring (still modest) with continuing claims.

Housing starts in January (older news) jumped more than expected to 1.487mm vs the estimate of 1.341mm but the internals were quite mixed. Single family starts fell by 27k m/o/m but after rising by 31k in December. Multi family starts were where the upside was, going to 552k from 425k in this very volatile category.

Permits for each were down with single family at the lowest since last August and multi family just off the least since last August.

Bottom line, while seasonally adjusted and it’s always winter in January, weather trends do impact the timing of activity. With respect to multi family, from all the sunbelt REITS I heard from during earnings calls, there has been a dramatic reduction in the pace of new supply so likely the lift in multi family starts are coming in other markets, like on the coasts. I know where I sit in NJ, a lot of new supply has arrived with more to come but as seen below, permits in the aggregate are still well off their highs.

Also older news, the trade deficit in January of $54.5b was narrower than expected ($66b) led by a 5.5% rise in exports while imports fell a touch. This will lead to a modest rise in Q1 GDP estimates.

4 Week Avg in Initial Claims

Single Family Starts

Multi Family Starts

Single family permits

Multi Family Permits

With S&P cash -69 dandles I am buying across the board.

I will be back at around 1 p.m. - two meetings.

I have covered all of my Index short calls with S&P cash -51

I have two research meetings this morning (off campus!) between 10 AM and 1 PM.

Upside:

-TLYS +65% (earnings, guidance)
-HIMX +33% (hearing positive mention made at Hunterbrook)
-CDXS +32% (earnings, color)
-ORBS +31% (secures $125M in funding commitments; invests $50M in OpenAI and $25M in Beast Industries)
-BMBL +23% (earnings, guidance)
-LWLG +23% (announces collaboration with TSEM)
-FLY +18% (successfully Launches Alpha Flight 7Stairway to Seven mission tested and validated key Alpha Block II upgrades ahead of Flight 8)
-WOOF +16% (earnings, guidance)
-ABVX +8.4% (reportedly grants Astrazeneca exclusivity until March 23rd in view of offer)
-POET +6.9% (hearing Citrini Research out with positive comments)
-BBW +5.8% (earnings, guidance)
-MOS +5.7% (fertilizer sector strength attributed to prospect of higher prices due to shipping disruptions)
-DKS +5.5% (earnings, guidance)
-HIMS +5.1% (momentum)
-ONDS +3.0% (PLTR partners with Ondas and World View to advance next generation multi-domain intelligence platform)

Downside:

-NTSK -20% (earnings, guidance)
-GIII -17% (earnings, guidance)
-TIC -15% (earnings, guidance)
-PATH -11% (earnings, guidance)
-AAOI -8.0% (optical and data center names following Citrini Research report)
-WLTH -6.8% (earnings, color)
-VFF -6.0% (earnings, color)
-DG -5.4% (earnings, guidance)
-GFS -4.7% (files to sell 20M ordinary share secondary offering and announces concurrent $300M share repurchase)
-CCL -3.2% (weakness off concerns regarding higher oil prices)
-MS -2.7% (said to limit redemptions on private credit fund; Investors have requested to withdraw (redeem) 10.9% of the fund’s capital)
-MELI -2.6% (JPMorgan Chase and Co Cuts MELI to Neutral from Overweight, price target: $2,100 from $2,650)
-NCLH -2.6% (weakness off concerns regarding higher oil prices)
-OWL -2.6% (reportedly Blue Owl Capital is doubling down on AI infrastructure investments, including loans to two more data centers)

From Peter Boockvar:

The fate of the global economy is literally down to who blinks first/Interesting comments from Petco

The fate of the global economy is literally down to who blinks first as energy is the lifeblood of commerce. I just read this from an article in Reuters, “US intelligence indicates that Iran’s leadership is still largely intact and is not at risk of collapse any time soon after nearly two weeks of relentless US and Israeli bombardment, according to three sources familiar with the matter.”

Further, “A ‘multitude’ of intelligence reports provide ‘consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger’ of collapse and ‘retains control of the Iranian public,’ said one of the sources, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss US intelligence findings. The latest report was completed within the last few days, the source said.”

Here is the update with global container shipping prices where the Red Sea is now again a dangerous place to be traversing because of the Houthi threat but we know the Hormuz Strait is the real risk. The Shanghai to NY trip rose $103 to $3,080, though still remains low. A similar rise took place in the route to LA. Shanghai to Rotterdam saw the biggest rise, jumping by 19% w/o/w to $2,443.

Shanghai to NY

Shanghai to Rotterdam:

Global bonds continue to be no safe haven as inflation eats into their appeal. Ahead of an expected rate increase next week from the RBA, Aussie yields are jumping higher. Their 2 yr yield rose 8 bps to 4.51%, the highest since 2011. The 10 yr was up by 10 bps to 4.95%, matching a 15 yr high. Yields moved higher in Japan (BoJ meets next week but is not expected to move, maybe instead in April). The German 10 yr bund yield is just 3 bps from also a 15 yr high.

With respect to US Treasuries, inflation breakevens continue to pop, with the 2 yr up 9 bps yesterday to 3.12%. The 5 yr was up 4 bps to 2.64% and the 10 yr a more modest 3 bps to 2.38%.

I hear from some that somehow the Fed should look through this, of course depending on the sustainability of the commodity price move, but because oil and gas prices filter through to so many other things (see comments from Petco below), how can they realistically do that? I know, this is a supply shock and not your typical fiscal largesse combined with easy monetary policy stoking inflation but still.

Aussie 10 yr Yield

Not many earnings calls left this season but some left.

From Petco Health & Wellness, up by 17% pre market and a stock we own:

“We are starting the year from a position of strength while continuing to navigate a bumpy macro backdrop. Of note, our guidance assumes that fuel prices normalize by the end of the quarter...we believe our ability to gain market share is not entirely reliant on a cooperative macro environment or pet industry sales growth.”

This was an interesting stat, “Industry data tells us that 34% of Gen Z customers shop exclusively in stores. Interestingly, this group’s preference for an in-store experience is much higher than Gen X or Millennials and is virtually in line with Boomer preferences.”

To the possible impact of a prolonged rise in energy prices, “it’s similar to every retailer out there. We have our inbound ocean. And that sort of lags, it comes in later into our P&L through cost of goods sold. And then we have our outbound from our DCs (distribution centers) to our stores, a lot of it trucking. That can impact more rapidly. And then we have our parcel shipping. That can also be impacted. So we’ve incorporated in our scenarios in the range we gave, absorbing some of the volatility we’ve seen in gas prices over the last week or so. But the base assumption is that things start to normalize after Q1.”

On their consumer, “what we like about this environment, or what we like about our customers, I should say, is our customers skew to the higher end of the income spectrum. So that’s good news for us because that end of the spectrum can obviously withstand macro changes without it being as large of a percentage to their overall well being.”

Dollar General reported today and both top and bottom line numbers, along with comps, look above expectations. In their release they said this of note:

“Same store sales increased 4.3% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, reflecting increases of 2.6% in customer traffic and 1.7% in average transaction amount.” Gains “included growth in each of the consumables, seasonal, home products, and apparel categories.”

Dick’s Sporting Goods earnings look good but no real macro commentary in the release. I’ll give earnings call comments tomorrow.

Fed Speakers

11 a.m.: Fed Governor Bowman (Voter, Dove) in conversation on "Basel III and Bank Capital Rules" at the Cato Institute, Washington DC (Q&A from moderator. Livestreamed here );

2 p.m.: Federal Reserve releases figures on the financial health of U.S. household in its Flow of Funds report for the 4th quarter of 2025, in Washington;

2 p.m.: Federal Reserve issues quarterly financial accounts of the United States

Treasury Auctions:

11 a.m.: Treasury announces a 6, 13, 26 and 52-Week Bill Auction;

11 a.m.: Treasury Announces a TIPS and Bond Auction;

11:30 a.m.: Treasury hosts a $100B 4 and a $90B 8 Week Bill Auction;

1 p.m.: Treasury hosts a $22B 30-Year Bond Auction;

2 p.m.: Treasury buyback (liquidity support)

Economic Calendar

rolf thrane

Stating the obvious - Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf - There is True Social messaging from the president that is going to change reality. There is no quick resolution here. IMHO for oil markets and hence the broader market

If oil stays elevated, it is difficult to see how equity markets can rally meaningfully. It is much easier to see how they could decline.

The obvious problem is the Strait of Hormuz and the concentration of global oil flows through the Persian Gulf. What pundits don't analyze is the realistic pace at which this can be normalized.

A wholesale regime change in Iran could theoretically resolve it, but such an outcome is unlikely to happen quickly.

Even if attacks on vessels stopped tomorrow, it would still take time before companies such as A.P. Moller – Maersk and other major shipping operators felt comfortable sending their fleets through the strait under normal operating conditions.

Escorting ships through the strait may reduce the danger, but it does not eliminate it. Convoys are less dangerous, not safe.

Military options to suppress attacks on oil infrastructure and shipping certainly exist, but by their nature they would involve a gradual campaign of attrition.

The hardest factor to analyze is the set of compensating measures for a potential Persian Gulf oil deficit. There may well be several of them—strategic reserves, rerouting of supply, alternative production increases—but none of them are fast.

Will oil rise further from here? who knows.

Will it fall quickly back to prior levels? don't think so.

Markets are often said to anticipate future developments. I am not convinced that this particular risk has been fully absorbed yet.

If one looks deeply at the structural realities of the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf energy system, there does not appear to be a rapid solution. Any normalization is likely to be slow. With that I think the market has too many headwinds right now to rally much. If the market rallied I will double down on my shorts. There are no quick fixes, no campaign bottles to be uncorked next week - only short-lived rallies trigged by shallow unrealistic messaging.

“Our fund’s performance remains strong”, but we can’t meet the redemption requests.

Wow.

— Jeffrey Gundlach (@TruthGundlach) March 12, 2026

Chart of the Day - Credit Is Starting to Crack

Remember when the sunshine boys and girls on Fin TV, who always prefer the view of the rearview mirror (where investment vision is naturally 20/20) and never the front windshield (Slink, Belski, Drawdown, Farmer Jim, The Clerk et al), used the narrow investment-grade spread to Treasuries as a reason to be bullish? 

Well...

From (1) Jim Carroll (@vixologist) / X:

Investment Grade Corporate Bonds relative to 7–10 Year Treasuries (LQD/IEF) made new multi-month lows today and suffered its third-worst session since last Halloween.

When Treasuries begin to outperform corporate credit, it marks a shift toward safety and away from risk.

This suggests credit spreads are widening and financial conditions are tightening, which tends not to be the best environment for equities.

The Takeaway: Credit spreads are widening, and if the trend persists, it’s likely to act as a headwind for risk assets.

Yo, Charts pic.twitter.com/GqQHVs9VU8

— da Chart Life (@daChartLife) March 11, 2026

S&P 500 short term breadth now in the best spot (for bulls) since the April 2025 bear market bottom pic.twitter.com/rpASccEgIo

— nextbigtrade (@nextbigtrade) March 11, 2026

Financials $XLF relative to S&P 500 $SPX back to prior support. Does it hold again? pic.twitter.com/FXCLfbm7x0

— Jack (@alphacharts365) March 11, 2026

Crude oil has pulled back from its high of over $110/barrel, but fertilizer stocks are still moving, hitting multi-year highs. This corner of the market still appears to be expecting petro price pressure. pic.twitter.com/r6Y5yIn6hu

— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) March 11, 2026

It really feels like everything is aligning from a cycle perspective right now. We’re already seeing a revaluation of hard assets, while the longer-term effects of the disruptions around #Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are still far from fully understood.
At the same time, we’re… pic.twitter.com/sGZX0u4BJ1

— Cycle Investment Strategy (@cycle_strategy) March 11, 2026

Bonus — Here are some great links:

It's Messy

Mag Seven Meltdown or Bull Market Reset?

Three Questions

#Iran War Update No. 12 (focus on Iranian strategic narrative):

🔹Iranian sources expect that the war is entering a new and more volatile phase that could, on the one hand, involve internal unrest, and on the other hand, expanded regional fronts and greater pressure on global…

— Hamidreza Azizi (@HamidRezaAz) March 12, 2026

The recent rise in interest rates (the 10-year Treasury note yield has risen from under 4.00% to 4.24%) is especially troublesome when coupled with a diminution in S&P 2026-27 EPS expectations (as rising energy prices trickle down) — and are serving to expand the equity risk discount.

Again, this move from equity risk premium to equity risk discount is at the foundation of my ursine stock market view.

* More slugflation lies ahead...

Wolf Street howls about food inflation.

* Well, you can tell by the way I use my walk...

With S&P futures (bottoming around -62 handles, where we took a trading long rental last night at 8:00 PM) and now about -31 handles (5:05 AM) we have taken the profits and sold Index common (and back to delta neutral):

*  (SPY)  ($673.08) — We had bought last night at $670.13

*  (QQQ)  ($604.77) — We had bought last night at $602.12

The S&P Short Range Oscillator moved further into oversold ground at -5.38% vs. -4.27%.

* Life goin' nowhere, somebody help me...

Well, now I get low and I get high
And if I can't get either, I really try
Got the wings of heaven on my shoes
I'm a dancing man, and I just can't lose

You know it's alright, it's okay
I'll live to see another day
We can try to understand
The New York Times' effect on man

Whether you're a brother or whether you're a mother
You're stayin' alive, stayin' alive
Feel the city breakin' and everybody shakin'
And we're stayin' alive, stayin' alive

- The Bee Gees, Stayin' Alive 

Dougie Kass

Wednesday night trading.

At about 8PM I went long Indices (against short calls) and took trading long rental:

• SPY $670.13
• QQQ $602.12

Dougie Kass

Late Diary post explains the futures drop after the close:

Futures -60 Handles on MS Redemptions Limits

Morgan Stanley (MS) limits redemptions on their private credit fund. Morgan Stanley (MS) Limits Redemptions on Private Credit Fund - Bloomberg

S&P futures are -62 in the early going as a direct result of this news.