Morgan Stanley  (MS)  limits redemptions on their private credit fund. Morgan Stanley (MS) Limits Redemptions on Private Credit Fund - Bloomberg

S&P futures are -45 in the early going as a direct result of this news.

After-Hours % Advancers

After-Hours % Decliners

Closing Volume

- NYSE volume 10% below its one-month average

- NASDAQ volume 5% below its one-month average

- VIX index: down 2.53% to 24.30

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors 

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Closing S&P 500 Heat Map

Thanks for reading my Diary today.

I hope you found my input helpful.

Enjoy the evening.

Be safe.

With S&P cash -9 handles I am doubling my short index call position.

Wolf Street howls about rising inflation. 

I have sold out my  (UBER)  long at $74.39 (a small profit) from earlier in the month.

My reason? Nothing to do with the fundamentals (below — see Whitney Tilson's comments).

Believe it or not, I have had a series of awful experiences in taking several Ubers over the last week.

If I am having troubles, so are others — and why be long a consumer stock that is providing an intolerable service?

From last week:

A Starter on Uber

By Doug Kass Mar 2, 2026 3:00 PM EST

I took the trading profit in Goldman Sachs  (GS)  at $820.91.

With S&P cash -7 handles (the low was -35 handles!) I am back shorting index calls.

This accounts for the the whoosh lower:

FBI warns Iran aspired to attack California with drones in retaliation for war: Alert - ABC News

Here are today's things:

* A lot of trades back in forth in index common and calls (all profitable but too numerous to repeat!)

* Financial buys:  (APO)  $105.62,  (BAC)  $48.09,  (GS)  $812.80,  (JPM)  $286.49,  (KKR)  $87.19,  (MS)  $158.09,  (WFC)  $76.91.

* Added to  (MSOS)  (common and calls) and MSOX.

* Sold  (UBER)  $74.29.

From last Friday:

Exploring a New/Old Trade

New buy, old friend - Viking Therapeutics (VKTX- $31.11)

More on Monday.

By Doug Kass Mar 6, 2026 9:45 AM EST

---

The quick case for Viking Therapeutics  (VKTX) :

* Top-tier efficacy and safety into Phase 3 trials

* The company has the same type of molecule as the superior Lilly  (LLY)  offering

* Executive who came from Lilly just purchased shares

* Many big pharmas have weak offerings and have holes in their portfolios coming up in the next few years

* M&A optionality (we could see a bidding war for VKTX after top pharmas are stressed having watched Lilly's meteoric rise)

* Technically, the chart is breaking out

I doubled up on Goldman Sachs  (GS)  at $811.34.

I have initiated a trading long rental in Goldman Sachs  (GS)  at $814.06.

The market doesn’t owe you anything

It doesn’t care that you are sitting in front of the screen and want to make a quick buck

Accept it

— Andrew O'Connell, CFA, FRM (@realpristinecap) April 20, 2023

I have taken off my  (SPY)  and  (QQQ)  positions (short common and calls) for a profit.

From Charlie! The Week in Charts (3/11/26) - Charlie Bilello's Blog

* Quoth The Raven, Gary Marcus, George Noble, Torsten Slok all chime in...

More AI/ (NVDA)  concerns:

OpenAI just published a paper proving that ChatGPT will always hallucinate.

Not sometimes. Not "until the next version." Always.

They proved it mathematically. And three other top AI labs confirmed it independently.

Here's what the research actually shows:
Even with perfect… pic.twitter.com/elh7g3lgO7

— Saidul (@saidul_dev) March 7, 2026

and...

🚨Let me explain what just happened because I don't think people understand how insane this is.

> A woman asked ChatGPT for legal help. It told her to fire her real lawyer. She did.

> Then it wrote 40+ court filings citing laws that don't exist. Cases that never happened.… https://t.co/L2oiffb21f pic.twitter.com/IzEV4U2kmG

— Tuki (@TukiFromKL) March 7, 2026

 From Quoth The Raven:

AI: Now With Less Circle And More Jerk

From George Noble:

I just learned something that should terrify every AI investor:

Six major large language models were tested on real freelance work - the kind actual humans get paid to do on Upwork.

Not homework. Not summaries. Real commercial tasks that generate real revenue.

Building video… pic.twitter.com/FCoxXO8HtE

— George Noble (@gnoble79) February 5, 2026

From Gary Marcus:

“A spate of outages, including incidents tied to the use of AI coding tools”, right on schedule

And finally...

This is absurd. See title/text. Then look at chart below. The spike started in 2020, right around Covid and all the BS and money printing and everything else that went on then. There was no AI or LLMs then. Also, the Y axis is altered, it does not start at zero, so that makes the spike look bigger.

Dunno why everyone, even the economists, feel like they have to sell AI?

The Daily Spark

Torsten Slok, Apollo Chief Economist

March 7, 2026

New Business Formation Exploding Higher

The surge in new US business formation is being fueled by AI and large language models that are dramatically reducing the cost and complexity of launching a company, see chart below. As these firms scale, they will create jobs, underscoring that AI is likely to strengthen, not disrupt, the US labor market.

Sources: US Census Bureau, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist

Adding to MSOS, MSOX and private equity stocks.

From Peter Boockvar:

Let's call 2.5% core a new baseline figure

The February CPI rose .3% headline and .2% core as expected with 2.4% and 2.5% y/o/y gains for each, unchanged with January. Prior to the energy price spike of course, energy prices rose .6% m/o/m after a 1.5% drop in January. Food prices were up by .4% m/o/m and 3.1% y/o/y with a .4% rise in ‘food at home’ and .3% gain for ‘food away from home.’ Boosting ‘food at home’ prices was a 3.6% jump in ‘fresh sweetrolls, coffeecakes and doughnuts.’ They are good. Also, beef/veal prices continue to skyrocket, up another 1.5% and by 14.5% y/o/y.

In services, a continued moderation in rental gains slowed services inflation ex energy to a .3% m/o/m and 2.9% increase. OER was up by .2% m/o/m for a 2nd month and up by 3.2% y/o/y. And, Rent of Primary Residence saw just a one tenth m/o/m rise and 2.7% y/o/y. Medical care prices continue higher, up by .5% m/o/m and 3.4% y/o/y. With airlines limiting capacity expansions and before this jet fuel spike, fares rose 1.4% m/o/m after a 6.5% jump in January and 3.8% increase in December. They are now up 7.1% y/o/y. Vehicle maintenance saw a .9% m/o/m rise and up by an expensive 5.6% y/o/y. Auto insurance prices continue to slow, down .3% m/o/m and up just .2% y/o/y as we recycle thru the price spikes.

Health insurance prices were down by 1.1% m/o/m and 3.6% y/o/y according to the BLS. Really?

Goods prices were up .1% m/o/m and 1% y/o/y helped by another drop in used car prices, down by .4% m/o/m and 3.2% y/o/y. This though should reverse soon as the Manheim index has moved higher. New car prices were flat and up just .5% y/o/y. We’ll soon see how it responds to higher aluminum prices. Apparel prices jumped by 1.3% in the month and up 2.5% y/o/y. ‘Household furnishings and supplies’ prices rose .2% m/o/m and 3.9% y/o/y, continuing to be impacted by tariffs with appliance prices in particular up by 3.1% in February alone. ‘Recreation Commodities’, many of which are imported, saw prices up .4% m/o/m and 2.5% y/o/y.

Bottom line, lets call a 2.5% rise in core CPI y/o/y a baseline figure with what has happened since February. Yields are up about 2 bps from 8:29am est in 2s, 10s and 30s.

Core CPI y/o/y

From Peter Boockvar:

What is the per gallon of gasoline price point that destroys demand, according to one operator?

February CPI is of course in focus today but it should be viewed as old news for certain obvious components like energy, food, airfares, and new cars (price of aluminum) to name a few items. But also for other things touching the consumer like restaurants as more money gets diverted to paying for gasoline. I still think the bigger picture trend of slowing service price gains mostly due to moderating rental price increases (for now) and rising goods prices after the period of disinflation post inflation spike is intact.

Hopefully the G7 release of oil reserves will relieve some of the shortages at refineries but these countries still need to get the crude oil to them via shipping and eventually these reserves will have to be refilled, and then some, as I argued yesterday. Japan is going ahead itself on releasing direct to its own refineries.

Can central banks hike rates soon in response to the newly created inflation worry? The RBA might and today ECB member Peter Kazimir said they could too at some point. “For the time being, we need to stay calm” but “I’d say a reaction by the ECB is potentially closer than many people think. I don’t want to speculate about April or June. But we will be ready to act if needed.” In response to the comments, yields are up across the board in Europe, though the euro is little changed.

Another story of note in the private credit space, this time from the Financial Times saying “JPMorgan Chase has clamped down on its lending to private credit groups, with bankers looking to cut risk as concerns mount over the credit quality of companies in their stables. The bank informed private credit lenders that it had marked down the value of certain loans in their portfolios, which serve as the collateral the funds use to borrow from the bank, according to people familiar with the matter.”

“The move will limit how much money JPMorgan lends to private credit groups against those loans going forward - a sign traditional Wall Street banks are growing cautious of an industry that has grown rapidly as non-bank lenders became top creditors to higher-risk borrowers.”

I want to be clear that not all private credit is created equal and I see countless deals on my desk. There are very good loan underwriters and many that are not. The asset class suffered from too much money chasing not enough good loans to mostly single B rated companies. And, many of these loans were given to private equity leveraged buyouts which just put more debt on to a business. I prefer those that lend more directly to companies that help them grow their business instead and those with EBITDA north of $200 million that can better handle the economic gyrations and cycles.

https://www.ft.com/content/389a0003-d8de-4afd-9de9-be6e9fc6888c

To a few earnings calls.

From Casey’s General Store, the Midwest convenience store operator and one of my go to earnings calls in gauging the state of the consumer since they cater to them all:

“Continuing the momentum from the prior quarter, whole pies and hot sandwiches in all-day parts performed well during the third quarter...Energy drinks and nicotine alternatives continue to outperform the category with double digit growth.”

“we had a little under 3% pricing reflected in our current quarter. And that’s primarily on the nicotine category, where we tend to just pass through the manufacturer price increases that we have.” On prepared food, “we took almost no price.” And, “On the grocery side, we do use pricing to preserve margin. That’s a contractual business for us annually. And so we will continue to take price in that category commensurate with the inflation we take from our partners. And the pricing we do receive...in the grocery category especially is often largely or completely offset by promotional support from our vendor partners.”

And importantly on the gas station business, “on the volume side of things, with absolute retail prices, we really don’t start to see any level of demand destruction until we’re approaching $5 a gallon at retail. As we sit here today, we’re right around $3 a gallon in our footprint. So we have quite a ways to go before we would be concerned from a volume standpoint.” I bolded to emphasize.

On the state of their consumer, “we’re still seeing customers shop at our stores across all income cohorts. For sure, the upper income cohorts are stronger, but we’re growing business across the low income cohorts as well. And what we’re seeing in terms of behavior difference, I’d say the middle and upper income cohorts are performing about the same. They’re still shopping at our stores. They’re shopping across all categories. Very little change in their behavior.”

“The lower income cohorts are still growing with us. I think that’s an important thing to call out. They are growing at a slower rate than the other cohorts, except in prepared foods where they’re actually growing as strong, if not stronger, than the higher income cohorts. I think that’s really a reflection of the value proposition that our prepared foods category offers relative to QSRs and other of our national brand pizza competitors. They’re also leaning a little bit heavier on the dispensed beverage side within prepared foods because that typically represents a better value than the bottle and can beverages on the non-alcohol or on the grocery and general merchandise side.”

I’ll add, when someone is going for fountain soda instead of a can or bottle, that tells you how stretched financially and value conscious some are.

“On grocery and general merchandise, lower income consumers are buying at a little bit slower rate, but still growing again. And that kind of holds together logically, as they may have opportunities to go to a grocery store and buy in bulk at a lower unit cost than what we would be able to provide...I still feel very good about the overall health of the consumer and their shopping habits.”

From Kohl’s, which certainly has its own competitive dynamic in the department store space:

“Beyond our category performance, it is also important to acknowledge that the consumer is behaving differently in this challenging macroeconomic environment. We know our core low to middle income customers continue to face financial pressure, and they are seeking value. As we expect this customer behavior to persist, we are adapting our strategies to ensure we are delivering great value to better serve this customer.”

Oracle we see is jumping pre-market off a near 52 week low and they said this of note:

Defending its software business against the haters, “I’ll say a few words about the reported SasS Apocalypse. You’ve all heard the thesis or theory that new companies coding quickly using AI will spell the death of SaaS. I don’t agree with that at all. I do think that AI tools and their coding capabilities would be a threat if we weren’t adopting them, but we are and very rapidly. Oracle is using the best AI coding tools and the best developers not only to accelerate our SaaS business, but to deliver solutions that enable entire ecosystems across numerous industries.”

On their AI infrastructure business, “Demand for AI infrastructure, both GPU and CPU, continues to exceed supply. This is directly visible in our $553 billion RPO (remaining performance obligations).” They then went through how they are ramping up the needed data center supply to meet the demand. “Demand for AI and advanced compute will continue to expand broadly across the economy. There will be many successful models, agentic platforms and businesses that emerge.”

CapEx was left unchanged at $50b, which is an extraordinary 75% of expected revenue vs about 10% in fiscal ‘22.

To one economic data point. Weekly mortgage applications saw a pop in purchases, rising 7.8% w/o/w even with the 10 bps rise in mortgage rates for the week ended March 6th which we know rose after the oil price spike. Refi’s were unchanged after jumping in the prior three weeks.

Upside:

-KALA +63% (launches a Revolution for Biotech- First AI Agent Deploying in 14 Days)

-DOMO +41% (earnings, color)

-AUNA +19% (earnings, guidance)

-TMDE +19% (momentum)

-BLDP +11% (announces new pact with New Flyer (unit of NFI Group) for 50 MW of fuel cell bus engines)

-TH +11% (earnings, guidance)

-SERV +10% (earnings, guidance)

-ORCL +9.9% (earnings, guidance)

-NBIS +8.6% (NVIDIA and Nebius Partner to Scale Full-Stack AI Cloud; Nvidia to invest $2B in Nebius)

-KMX +7.4% (Starboard confirms letter to CarMax)

-UNF +6.5% (confirms to be acquired by Cintas at $310/shr in $5.5B transaction)

-CXM +6.4% (earnings, guidance; announces share buyback program)

-MNKD +5.4% (insider buy)

-CRWV +4.8% (higher in sympathy with ORCL)

-UBER +3.5% (Amazon's Zoox and Uber Announce Strategic Partnership to deploy Zoox purpose-built robotaxis on Uber)

-NKE +2.4% (Barclays Raised NKE to Overweight from Equal Weight, price target: $73 from $64)

Downside:

-RAY -22% (earnings, color)

-KOS -20% (prices ~98M shares at $1.90/shr for gross proceeds worth ~$185M)

-GRPN -12% (earnings, guidance)

-AVAV -11% (earnings, guidance)

-CPB -5.3% (earnings, guidance; suspends share repurchases)

-CTAS -4.0% (UNF confirms to be acquired by Cintas at $310/shr in $5.5B transaction)

-SLB -2.5% (cuts guidance, citing Middle East hostilities)

Treasury Auctions:

11:30 a.m.: Treasury hosts a $69B 17-Week Bill Auction;

1:00 p.m.: Treasury hosts a $39B 10-Year Note Auction;

2 p.m.: Federal Budget Balance (February)

Fed Speaker:

8:30 a.m.: Fed Governor Bowman (Voter, Dove) speaks on "Supervision and Regulation" at the American Bankers AssociationWashington Summit, Washington DC (No text. Q&A from moderator. Livestreamed at x.com/ABABankers)

Economic Calendar

Barclays has upgraded Nike  (NKE)  and raised its price target from $64 to $73 (very ambitious!).

I recently initiated a position in Nike and I added to the position (as posted) on Monday at $55.85.

"Where's Wilson? They are selling, Mortimer"

Trading Places: Sell!

Bill Ackman's Pershing Square is the latest asset management company to share a piece of their "pie" with public investors. 

Bill Ackman's Pershing Square files for IPO on the NYSE

History indicates that when billionaire asset managers seek to sell a part of their businesses — the broader markets often suffer.

Caveat Emptor. 

President Trump is expected to sign an executive order this summer establishing a commission to study marijuana descheduling, according to two sources who spoke with The Marijuana Herald. https://t.co/XQ33QmnAzW

— Anthony Martinelli (@AMartinelliWA) March 10, 2026

BREAKING: Iran announces that facilities associated with major US technology companies could become targets next.

They specifically note that Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, IBM, Oracle, and Palantir are all potential targets across Israel, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 11, 2026

Chart of the Day: SPX

$SPX

Mental capital is finite so preserve it!
It is still an episode to watch rather than being whipsawed.
6800 a true magnet for the bulls to defend. Spinning top candle today from a bounce off the December low converging with the lower part of the channel.
Back into the… pic.twitter.com/CBOIZfDoMj

— conradseric, CMT, CAIA, CEFA (@conradseric) March 10, 2026

Just 1 S&P 500 sector ETF is up on the month...$XLK +0.8% @koyfincharts pic.twitter.com/t9dM1Vr5xy

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) March 10, 2026

$XBI Con una estructura de rectángulo descendente. El precio por encima de las medias de 21,50,200 días. A esperar el breakout. pic.twitter.com/vqDXpcTktD

— Gonza (@GonzaSanchezL) March 10, 2026

Who's shorting small-caps up here? 🙋🏼‍♂️ pic.twitter.com/buhPQAWn37

— Sam Gatlin (@sam_gatlin) March 10, 2026

Commodities - $PDBC $GSG
Bullish trend is still very early. It is outperforming in absolute and relative terms. $PDBC has less energy weighting as $GSG. pic.twitter.com/OskM8aHdvI

— Jim Knarr (@ChartMonitor) March 10, 2026

SPX/GOLD, long-term perspective. https://t.co/w9O8BfP2qn pic.twitter.com/yXBxE756oV

— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) March 10, 2026

Crude Oil has to be impossible to trade right now

Red = Transportation Secretary Chris Wright says the Navy escorted a ship through the Strait of Hormuz, -8.3%

Blue = Social Media post deleted, +5.49%

Green = repost below, potential mines in the Strait, +9.57% https://t.co/CyYSfrWcZP pic.twitter.com/5WwL74K5wx

— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) March 10, 2026

Bonus — Here are some great links:

Buying the Dip in the MAG7s

After the Reversal

That Tom Lee is on daily on CNBC with nonsensical price targets that yield no critical questions from the interviewer is a fundamental flaw of Fin TV's brand of journalism: 

TOM LEE SAYS HIGHER OIL PRICES ARE BULLISH FOR 🇺🇸 STOCKS

- U.S. is a net oil exporter
- Higher oil = capital flows out of the rest of the world, back into the U.S.
- When growth is scarce, people buy growth stocks
- The U.S. stock market is a growth index pic.twitter.com/YSgAM2quVG

— Tom Lee Tracker (Not actually Tom) (@TomLeeTracker) March 10, 2026

Wolf Street howls about the supply of single family homes.

This is the CNBC clip today where Tom Lee says he sees $SPX hitting 7,300 in March. Yes +7.7% rise in 15 trading days.

He then says a -20% bear market may show itself later this year. pic.twitter.com/JHyotXRqNX

— Heisenberg (@Mr_Derivatives) March 10, 2026

* It's getting to be a habit ('trading the range') with me

Every kiss, every hug seems to act just like a drug
You're getting to be a habit with me
Let me stay in your arms I'm addicted to your charms
You're getting to be a habit with me

I used to think your love was something
That I could take or leave alone
But now I couldn't do without my supply
I need you for my own

Oh, I can't break away I must have you everyday
As regularly as coffee or tea
You've got me in your clutches and I can't get free
You're getting to be a habit with me

Oh, I can't break away I must have you everyday
As regularly as coffee or tea
You've got me in your clutches and I can't get free
You're getting to be a habit with me
You're getting to be a habit with me.

- Harry Warren and Al Dubin, You're Getting To Be A Habit With Me

Dougie Kass

As noted late Tuesday I ended the day slightly long in Index positions (long common/short calls).

With S and P futures +27 handles at 910PM I am off loading some of my common to be in a slightly net short Index position.

Sales:

• SPY $679.56
• QQQ $609.96This was a profitable trade as I bought Spy, QQQ common in the hole during the afternoon. A good streak.

#Iran War Update No. 11 (focus on Iranian strategic narrative):

🔹There are mounting signs that the war may be moving toward a more dangerous maritime phase. Reports that Iran may have begun mining the Strait of Hormuz have fueled growing concern that Tehran is preparing to…

— Hamidreza Azizi (@HamidRezaAz) March 11, 2026

The S&P Short Range Oscillator moved further into an oversold at -4.27% vs. -3.27%.

The following chart shows the stress points affecting the markets. Above the dotted line are the VIX, crude, bond volatility (MOVE), and credit spreads. Below the dotted line are the drawdowns in the various public companies that specialize in private credit. pic.twitter.com/qfSopAI2JD

— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) March 10, 2026