After-Hours % Advancers

After-Hours % Decliners

Closing Volume

- NYSE volume 11% above its one-month average

- NASDAQ volume 10% above its one-month average

- VIX index: down 14.78% to 25.13

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

S&P 500 S&P 500 Heat Map

Despite some spectacular gains (from the lows) I have sold none of the individual equity buys bought in the market weakness earlier.

But I have moved to small sized in my short index calls with S&P cash up by over +50 handles.

CBS reports that during a phone interview with a senior official in the Administration that President Trump reportedly said the war could be over soon.

With S&P cash +25 handles I am back shorting index calls.

Here are today's things:

Indices

* Multiple profitable trades in  (SPY)  and  (QQQ)  common and calls (premarket and during regular market). (Now no positions)

* Covered  (IWM)  at $243.84 (premarket), shorted at $248.55, covered at $245.35.

Financials

* All buys:

(APO)  $ 105.74

(BAC)  $46.99

(BX)  106.69

(C)  102.83

(JPM)  281.18

(KKR)  87.59

(MS)  154.69

(WFC)  77.19

Consumer

All buys:

(KMB)  $102.78

(NKE)  55.85

(DIS)  99.97 (new name)

Cannabis

(CURLF)  $2.26

(GTBIF)  6.46

(MSOS)  3.87

MSOX 2.65

VRNO 1.18

Energy

* Covered  (OIH)  at 369.77

* Shorted  (XLE)  at $58.28 (premarket) covered at $57.35

* Shorted  (XOM)  at $156.06 (premarket), covered XOM at 152.55

$cwbhf $msos $yolo$sbev $hiti $vff $glasf $ycbd $cvsi $tlry all eyes on the Federal Register: pic.twitter.com/X4Px6pCoq5

— rstar (@sixonehalfdoz) March 9, 2026

I'm buying a starter position in Disney  (DIS)  at $99.97 — a stock I have avoided for years.

I don't think this is the perfect or ideal entry point — I would move to medium sized in the mid-nineties.

At the current price, the reward vs. risk is reasonable and (with a market cap of only $177 billion) there is a lot of optionality in ownership.

The threats I have outlined in the past (and that have kept me away from Disney (and at times I have been short) — sky-high park admission prices, AI disruption of its movie business, streaming competition, etc. — are starting to be discounted in this popular stock.

More later in the week on the name.

I initiated long positions in  (WFC)  at $77.23 and  (BAC)  at $46.99 just now.

My guess is that the easy money has been made on the long side today.

"The Big Short" New York Premiere - Outside Arrivals

In anticipation of a market correction/bear market I have substantially bolstered my cash position recently in order to take advantage of the possible developing long opportunities. Meanwhile, I am trading more aggressively from the short side than I have in a while.

A Story of Patience

Most people know that Michael Burry bet and profited against subprime in 2008. It became known as the Big Short (and a movie was even made out of his experience). But fewer people know what happened before the payoff. 

For two years, Burry's Scion Capital was bleeding — as his trade/investment was under water. His Limited Partners threatened lawsuits. His founding backer, Joel Greenblatt, flew across the country to call him a liar. Burry was forced to "side-pocket" his subprime trades, locking up withdrawals in order to survive. He refused to let anyone leave even as the fund's losses mounted. His partners stopped speaking to him. Then the market broke. 

Scion ultimately made about $725 million and his investors saw +489% total return. Burry was a genius, but six months earlier, he was nearly out of business. The lesson is the cost to hold. Being early and being wrong feel exactly the same; until they don't.

Most people don't survive the "until." (Ultimately Burry shut down his Fund because managing human emotion during the wait was too painful). 

I have felt like Michael Burry over the last 18-20 months as our ursine market outlook did not match the market participants' enthusiasm and robust investment returns. The difference, of course, between my hedge fund Seabreeze Partners and Scion Capital is that while being negative in view, we have managed risk well (as for 25 of the last 26 months our Partnership has delivered a positive investment return).

My Negative Market View Remains Unchanged

Over the last two years I have made the case that the markets have materially underpriced risk — that there is a broad and growing list of possible market and economic outcomes that are market unfriendly. I continue to hold to this view. Fundamentally, our concerns continue to be justified:

* Geopolitical risks are multiplying. (The recent attack on Iran is illustrative of this concern as the most immutable rule of war is the law of unintended consequences.)

* A period of disappointing economic growth and persistent inflation lie ahead: As you all know by now I call this "slugflation." (Recent hot inflation coupled with the rise in crude oil are supportive of this view.)

* I remain skeptical about the circular financing of massive AI projects as well as the likelihood of generating adequate returns on that capital investment. (The Mag 7 and peripheral companies represent a large portion of the S&P Index.)

* The private equity and debt markets are deteriorating. (See my Surprise List where I highlighted the risk in Apollo  (APO) , KKR  (KKR) , Blackstone  (BX)  and the others.)

* Consensus forecasts for 2026-7 S&P profits are likely too optimistic.

* Neither political party seems to have any fiscal discipline — as measured by our country's growing deficit and ever-expanding debt load.

* The equity risk premium has become, for the first time in almost three decades, an equity risk discount. Historically, this is an indicator that current valuations provide a poor launching pad for future returns. It also means that investors believe there is more risk in owning bonds than stocks — truly a foolish (and dangerous) notion. From a valuation standpoint stocks remain somewhere between highly overvalued and pornographically overvalued. Most traditional valuation metrics support this view:

Bottom Line

I continue to expect at least a small double-digit decline in the S&P Index this year.

Based on recent events and price action, the correction of the multi-year bull market may come sooner than later.

Related: As War Rages on in Iran, Oil Itself Takes Back Burner to These Concerns

Note: This article was a summary of recent commentary to my Seabreeze Partners (hedge fund) investors and other observations made in my Daily Diary on TheStreet Pro.

At the time of publication, Kass was long SPY common (s/m), QQQ common (s/m); short SPY calls (s/m), QQQ calls (s/m).

I have collapsed my long index common with short index calls for a profit as the VIX has declined.

I now have no positions in the indices. 

Real good pickups on Friday in  (PG)  and  (PEP) .

Not so good in  (KMB) !

From Friday:

Things I Did Today

Here are today's things:

* (KMB) bought at $104.21

* (PEP) bought at $157.73

* (PG) bought at $153.67

By Doug Kass Mar 6, 2026 3:52 PM EST

I sold my  (IWM)  trading long rental for a +$4 gain in an hour or so. 

- NYSE volume 14% above its one-month average;

- Nasdaq volume 7% above its one-month average;

- VIX index: down 3.15% to 28.56

I added meaningfully to my  (KMB)  long under $103.

As is obvious with my updated Market Outlook I remain negative over the intermediate term.

That said, given the ramp up in the VIX, the oversold Oscillator,  the rising uncertainty/fear and the possibility of some resolution in Iran (as the Administration begins to react to rising oil prices and lower stock prices) -  a short term rally is quite possible.

With S&P cash -95 handles I am taking on some long trading rentals.  

I just added  (JPM)  to those rentals at $281.18.

I will reshort on a meaningful rally.

I covered my energy shorts for a small profit:

* (XOM)  $152.82

* (OIH)  $367.51

*  (XLE)  $56.65

Adding to  (MSOS)  and (MSOX).

From Peter Boockvar:

We are now just a captive of geopolitical events we have no control of

With respect to the Strait closure and its economic and market obvious impact we know it’s all about the duration and the weekend provided us with no clues on how long it goes on for and if anything, the appointment of Khamenei’s son tells us that the Iranian regime is digging in, thus prolonging the conflict.

What else is there to say that’s new as the big market moves last week continue today. As market and economic participants we are now just a captive of geopolitical events we have no control of.

To a few price points other than crude which we see is back above $100 for both WTI and Brent, the average gallon of gasoline as of yesterday according to AAA, is now at $3.48 vs $2.98 last Saturday. And, as I highlighted on Friday, crop prices are now rallying too. Soybeans are up another 1.5% to over $12 a bushel at $12.19, a level last seen in June 2024. Corn and wheat are each up about 1%. The CRB Food Stuff index is up 5.8% over the past week.

It’s a shame that we used the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve in order to manipulate price rather than it being solely used as a supply disruption backstop which was what it was meant to do but we are where we are down 37% from the peak in barrels of inventory. So, when the Strait eventually reopens, ships start flowing again and prices fall, I do expect countries around the world, including the US, to enlarge, and even newly create for some, their strategic reserves.

AAA Avg Gallon of Gasoline

US Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventory in millions of barrels

We watch to see in coming weeks what the US oil and gas company reaction is to the spike in prices. As of March 6th, the crude oil rig count remained at around the lowest level since September 2021 at 411, up 4 rigs w/o/w. For natural gas, the rig count stands at 132, about 30% above its lows of a year ago but off its highs of a few years ago.

Crude Oil Rig Count

Natural Gas Rig Count

The entire jump in the commodity complex makes the February CPI we’re going to see on Wednesday old news but we can certainly at least parse out the core components to see the underlying trend. Manheim released its February wholesale used car index on Friday and was up .8% m/o/m and 4% y/o/y. Manheim said “Since the start of 2026, we’ve seen mostly solid demand at Manheim with higher sales conversion rates indicating an appetite from dealers to buy. As we progressed through February, we saw prices move higher than usual, especially in the back half of the month. The last week of January and early February threw some winter weather at dealer groups, which they indicated slowed down traffic.”

And, “Now that we are officially in March, with warmer weather ahead across much of the US, we have seen retail demand increasing in our most recent data points – for both new and used sales. The average tax refund is running 10% higher this year, as we hit some of the strongest weeks for consumer filing, and we are expecting to see that translate to more traffic at dealerships in March.”

Of course now though some of those refunds will go towards higher gasoline and maybe food bills along with chilling consumer confidence.

Needed more than ever in Japan right now with their large energy import needs, base pay in January rose 3% y/o/y which is the fastest pace of wage gain since 1992. If the yen keeps weakening here, the BoJ might have no choice but to hike rates again.

Base Pay in Japan y/o/y

China reported its February inflation stats but muddied by the timing of Lunar New Year so we’ll focus more on the March data. The same can be said with Taiwan’s February trade data, though exports to the US specifically rose 34% y/o/y driven by tech related shipments

Due to backwards energy policy in Europe for years now, all eyes on their industrial base with spiking oil and gas prices, Germany in particular. They reported both factory orders and industrial production for January that were weaker than expected. And, it’s only going to get worse from here with the Economy Ministry saying “Against the backdrop of current developments in the Middle East, which are not yet reflected in the indicators, and the significant rise in crude oil and gas prices on the world markets, the risk of a setback in the expected recovery of the industrial economy has increased significantly.”

Trading Long Rentals

*  (MS)  $155.40

*  (C)  $103.12

*  (BX)  $107.19

*  (APO)  $106.00

* (KKR)  $88.19

Below is a summary of some recent commentary to my Seabreeze Partners (hedge fund) investors and other observations made in my Diary.

In anticipation of a market correction/bear market I have substantially bolstered my cash position recently in order to take advantage of the possible developing long opportunities. (Meanwhile, I am trading more aggressively from the short side than I have in a while.)

A Story of Patience 

Most people know that Michael Burry bet and profited against subprime in 2008 - it became known as the Big Short (and a movie was even made out of his experience.). But fewer people know what happened before the payoff. For two years, Burry's Scion Capital was bleeding -- as his trade/investment was under water. His Limited Partners threatened lawsuits. His founding backer, Joel Greenblatt, flew across the country to call him a liar. Burry was forced to "side-pocket" his subprime trades, locking up withdrawals in order to survive. He refused to let anyone leave even as the fund's losses mounted. His partners stopped speaking to him. Then the market broke. Scion ultimately made about $725 million and his investors saw +489% total return. Burry was a genius, but six months earlier, he was nearly out of business. The lesson is the cost to hold. Being early and being wrong feel exactly the same; until they don't. 

Most people don't survive the "until." (Ultimately Burry shut down his Fund because managing human emotion during the wait was too painful). I have felt like Michael Burry over the last 18-20 months as our ursine market outlook did not match the market participants' enthusiasm and robust investment returns. The difference, of course, between Seabreeze Partners and Scion Capital is that while being negative in view, we have managed risk well (as for 25 of the last 26 months our Partnership has delivered a positive investment return).

My Negative Market View Remains Unchanged 

Over the last two years I have made the case that the markets have materially underpriced risk - that there is a broad and growing list of possible market and economic outcomes that are market unfriendly. I continue to hold to this view. Fundamentally, our concerns continue to be justified: 

 * Geopolitical risks are multiplying. (The recent attack on Iran is illustrative of this concern as the most immutable rule of war is the law of unintended consequences.) 

 * A period of disappointing economic growth and persistent inflation lie ahead: As you all know by now I call this "slugflation." (Recent hot inflation coupled with the rise in crude oil are supportive of this view.) 

 * I remain skeptical about the circular financing of massive AI projects as well as the likelihood of generating adequate returns on that capital investment. (The MAG7 and peripheral companies represent a large portion of the S&P Index.)

* The private equity and debt markets are deteriorating. (See my Surprise List where I highlighted the risk in Apollo, KKR, Blackstone and the others) 

  * Consensus forecasts for 2026-7 S & P profits are likely too optimistic. 

 * Neither political party seems to have any fiscal discipline - as measured by our country's growing deficit and ever-expanding debt load. 

 * The equity risk premium has become, for the first time in almost three decades, an equity risk discount. Historically, this is an indicator that current valuations provide a poor launching pad for future returns. It also means that investors believe there is more risk in owning bonds than stocks - truly a foolish (and dangerous) notion. From a valuation standpoint stocks remain somewhere between highly overvalued and pornographically overvalued. Most traditional valuation metrics support this view:

Summary

I continue to expect at least a small double-digit decline in the S&P Index this year.

Based on recent events and price action, the correction of the multi-year Bull Market may come sooner than later.

Day 9: Iran war is wider and longer:
— new, harder line leader in Iran
— new leader promises “new phase”
— 130+ drones by Iran last 24 hours 
— US talking “limited” ground forces 
—desalination hit in Bahrain
— oil $102, 4 yr high
— Americans disapprove, 59% v 41%
— Russian… pic.twitter.com/NaL8yvzEtr

— Robert A. Pape (@ProfessorPape) March 9, 2026

Upside:

-RLMD +55% (reports 12-Month Phase 2 Interim Data for NDV-01 in Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer; to advance NDV-01 into Phase 3 RESCUE registrational program in second line (2L) BCG-unresponsive and adjuvant intermediate-risk NMIBC in mid-2026)

-HIMS +48% (confirms new collaboration with Novo Nordisk, the company announced plans to align its US and global strategies with a focus on an increasing variety of FDA-approved GLP-1s)

-XENE +44% (announces Positive Topline Data from Phase 3 X-TOLE2 Study of Azetukalner in Focal Onset Seizures)

-QURE +36% (multiple broker upgrades)

-OPTX +26% (receives $4M defense order)

-DNTH +23% (early GO decision in CAPTIVATE Phase 3 trial for claseprubart in CIDP)

-FGL +22% (awarded RM16M EPCC contract for 25.40MW LSS project)

-LSTA +20% (to be acquired by Kuva Labs at $5.00/shr)

-RGNX +13% (biotech strength off Vinay Prasad departing FDA once again)

-CAPR +12% (biotech strength off Vinay Prasad departing FDA once again)

-TALK +8.0% (to be acquired by Universal Health Services at $5.25/shr)

-LYV +6.2% (said to be close to mid-trial settlement of DOJ antitrust matter that avoids Ticketmaster sale)

-AAOI +5.2% (received first volume order for its 1.6T data center transceivers)

-RAPP +4.3% (announce Strategic Collaboration with Tenacia Biotechnology for Development and Commercialization of RAP-219 in Greater China; to receive $20M upfront cash payment, up to $308M in potential development and commercial milestones)

-VRT +3.4% (to be added to S&P 500 Index)

-LITE +3.1% (to be added to S&P 500 Index)

-MGY +2.3% (oil and gas strength)

Downside:

-OLMA -41% (negative read-throughs from Roche ph3 persevERA study missing primary endpoint)

-FCEL -4.0% (earnings)

-JEF -3.0% (discloses Western Alliance’s loan solely against First Brands Receivables)

-AAL -2.7% (pressure on airline stocks as higher oil prices could pressure travel)

-USB -2.4% (files mixed shelf of an indeterminate amount)

Treasury Auctions

11:30 a.m.: Treasury hosts an $89B 3 and a $77B 6-Month Bill Auction; ‘
3:00 p.m.: Treasury inv. class auction data

Economic Calendar

Remembering your generational call 17 years ago. Engrained in my memory. pic.twitter.com/sGhheJOSDb

— Mark J Parker, Sr (@MarkJParkerSr) March 9, 2026

Remembering your generational call 17 years ago. Engrained in my memory. pic.twitter.com/sGhheJOSDb

— Mark J Parker, Sr (@MarkJParkerSr) March 9, 2026

Enter The F-Bucket of Vol pic.twitter.com/9hqupfILnV

— Keith McCullough (@KeithMcCullough) March 9, 2026

As I have tweeted recently, I no longer watch @cnbc.

My ears and eyes remain glued on Bloomberg @business and @tomkeene @ferrotv @lisaabramowicz1

This means I will no longer be critical of @cnbc going forward as it is clear that their formulaic programming (same bullish… https://t.co/RsbwPjrxBl

— Dougie Kass (@DougKass) March 9, 2026

* On an even worse jobs report under the surface...

A Horrendous Job Report Looks Even Worse Under the Surface

The Dales Report on Sunday (and I am quoted a bit in it!):

▶️ Would Bondi's Removal Stop Rescheduling?

(⌛6 min)

🤔 *IF* Pam Bondi was removed as Attorney General, could an acting AG still sign the final order to Reschedule Cannabis?

🌿 Cannabis ETFs: 🌎 $YOLO 🇺🇸 $MSOS

📈 $SPY $QQQ #FinTwithttps://t.co/YZQYGHrhwd

— The Dales Report (@TheDalesReport) March 7, 2026

Microsoft $MSFT hasn't closed below its 200-week moving average in more than 12 years 🚨 The 200-week MA has held as support despite multiple attempts in 2022, 2023, 2025, and 2026 ✅ pic.twitter.com/sbKI8nicUJ

— Barchart (@Barchart) March 9, 2026

Chart of the Day -  (XLE)

Based on the preliminary data just after the open, the NYSE's McClellan A-D Oscillator is now officially "way the heck down there". Closing numbers will be different, of course. pic.twitter.com/qxOCepKs0T

— Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) March 6, 2026

That December low is taking on more and more significance. pic.twitter.com/pk26aii4MK

— Walter Deemer (@WalterDeemer) March 6, 2026

#NDX, 1d

24000 is the line in the sand.

because nothing good happens under 200d MA. pic.twitter.com/ILERLDlw4U

— Yuriy Matso (@yuriymatso) March 6, 2026

What is the market telling us about the major structural macro risk to investors?

Inflation or disinflation???

Could this be more clear? We are in a new regime...not about Iran... pic.twitter.com/yklE1UX9v7

— David Burrows (@barometerca) March 6, 2026

Wheat closed at nine month highs....new momentum highs on multiple time frames. pic.twitter.com/4zKkY5pOGq

— Linda Raschke (@LindaRaschke) March 6, 2026

$IEI : $HYG credit spreads breaking out similar to spring of 2024? @TheChartReport pic.twitter.com/o0sfiDXgFO

— Stacey A. Lee (@BaileyBaxter25) March 6, 2026

Bonus — Here are some great links:

Weight of the Evidence

Inside Edge

Boiling a Frog

#Iran War Update No. 9 (focus on Iranian strategic narrative):

🔹Israeli strikes continued to focus heavily on Iran’s missile infrastructure. The Israeli military said it targeted the headquarters of the IRGC Aerospace Force in Tehran, a key center responsible for Iran’s missile…

— Hamidreza Azizi (@HamidRezaAz) March 8, 2026

The United States is actively discussing seizing Kharg Island.

Axios reported on 8 March, citing administration officials, that the operation is under review. Kharg is a five-mile-long island sitting 15 to 30 kilometres off Iran’s southern coast. It handles 80 to 90 percent of… https://t.co/h05tjwtWXe pic.twitter.com/vUYIOrWBtS

— Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ (@shanaka86) March 9, 2026

JUST IN: Hours ago I wrote that Kharg Island was the red line the coalition drew for itself. The one target whose destruction would do more to end this war than every other strike combined, left untouched because reaching it would create consequences the coalition cannot manage.… https://t.co/CjcweHhhrh pic.twitter.com/uquQ8gKKOm

— Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ (@shanaka86) March 8, 2026

The S&P Short Range Oscillator stands at -3.95% vs. -1.82% (that's an increasing oversold).

But, remember, oversolds can stay oversold (and even increase) during a market correction.

Just in🔥

NYT and other sources say White House Officials expect Trump to announce 'victory' over Iran and try to bring an end to the conflict due the the disaster unfolding in the markets. pic.twitter.com/9tLP7pwdwJ

— UNN (@UnityNewsNet) March 8, 2026

BREAKING: Jim Cramer comments on the Iran war:

“I don't see a path to de-escalation,” he says. pic.twitter.com/2w7n72UCcU

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 9, 2026

Futures were down 2.5% last night, now down just about 1.25 because of European oil reserve potential... might be a sell opportunity that people will take if it stays this high (4:30a.m.)

— Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) March 9, 2026

Fear tonight of more energy infrastructure targeting and no way to open the Strait. A sudden oil shock is always bad for stocks. Can 2022 repeat? Could it be worse...My Sunday piece draws the parallel. I don't see a path to de-escalation...

— Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) March 9, 2026

BREAKING: Japan is preparing to tap its strategic petroleum reserves for the first time since the system was created in 1978.

The government has instructed the Shibushi national oil storage base in Kagoshima to prepare for possible crude release. Refiners are lobbying for… pic.twitter.com/nL5SB4QcCF

— Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ (@shanaka86) March 9, 2026

For once, I agree with HSBC.$CRWV is only going down. pic.twitter.com/Rq06Sqr4ot

— Jérémie (@jeremie0117) March 8, 2026

I was active last night (and profitable):

Dougie Kass

Sunday Night Trading

Buying the Indices (at 803PM) - Long Rentals

• SPY $661.13
• QQQ $588.63

Dougie Kass

Doubled up:

• SPY $660.11
• QQQ $587.46

Accumulating IWM

• $242.17

cjsolus

Sure feels like "Capitulation Sunday"!! CL up 25.... i don't want to be Warsh coming in and Jay Powell is having cocktails watching this action,,, Long Bond down over 1 pt...it's got a bit of an ugly face

Dougie Kass

215AM Futures trading I took a quick short term profit in my SPY and QQQ trading long rentals. Sales at:

• • Spy $662.72
  • QQQ $590.71
  I also sold my IWM long for a small profit at $243.64

I am now delta neutral on my Index position.

Wolf Street howls about the spike in oil prices.