After-Hours % Advancers

After-Hours % Advancers

Volume

- NYSE volume 17% above its one-month average

- NASDAQ volume 12% above its one-month average

- VIX index: up 10.12% to 23.61

Closing Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Closing S&P 500 Heat Map

Earnings After the Close

Earnings Before the Open

From the one and only, Randorama (!):

Randy

In Appreciation of Dougie

Lightning trading starting most mornings at four,

Our Dougie is many things but never a bore.

While quoting grandmothers and the Wall Street legends of lore

He is busy writing with great panache and always giving the score.

So let's hear it for Dougie for raising the floor,

As he assists us in piling up cash profits galore.

* Regime change is no longer a specific goal of the attack on Iran...

Wolf Street howls about oil (vey!). 

From Charlie! 

The Week in Charts (3/3/26) - Charlie Bilello's Blog

While the rally off of the lows has been impressive (+100 S&P handles), one of the reasons I re-shorted the indices was the fact that only 1 of 11 sectors is positive: 

With S&P cash -54 handles I am following up with shorting of QQQ calls.

With S&P cash only -51 handles (more than +100 handles from day's lows) I am more aggressively shorting  (SPY)  calls.

With S&P cash -66 handles I am back shorting  (SPY)  calls.

We have sold most of our consumer (defensive) staples on strength over the last month.

Today the sector came back to earth:

(PG)  -$4.58

(KMB)  -$4.53

(PEP)  -$3.16

I would be patient and let them sell off another 3-5% before considering a repurchase of the three stocks above.

With S&P cash -120 handles (+45 handles from lows) I have taken off my index longs:

*  (SPY)  $674.73

*  (QQQ)  $597.17

With S&P cash -112 handles, I have sold out all my trading long rentals (individual securities):  (MS) ,  (C) ,  (APO) ,  (BX) .

Chart from 10:20 a.m. ET

I took a +$2 profit in  (IWM)  buy - sold at $256.35.

* Be opportunistic

* Stay flexible

* Be disciplined by taking quick trading losses

* Let trading profits run

* Ignore Fin TV and the business media

I have covered my  (GRNY)  short at $24.35 (-$0.75 today) - for a profit.

I have added to my Index longs:

*  (SPY)  $669.83

*  (QQQ)  $592.00

Long  (IWM)  at $254.59 . 

Long  (BX)  $105.72..

*  (MS)  $161.44

*  (C)  $107.66

*  (APO)  $101.24

Bidding for  (UBER)  in the premarket.

Added to index (long):

*  (SPY)  $673.96

*  (QQQ) $594.51

Note: Most of my very short-term trading is not random. As was the case with the last few trades this morning, the decisions are based on a proprietary (stochastic) model built by one of my mentors. That mentor has made over $500 million in trading over his lifetime - he was the best pure trader I have ever seen or worked with.

*  (MSOS)  $3.58

* (MSOX) $2.41

Upside:

-MOBX +178% (awarded US Navy Tomahawk missile component order)

-BATL +136% (entered into a definitive agreement to raising approximately $15 million at a price of $5.50 per share)

-ZD +61% (agrees to sell Connectivity division to Accenture for $1.2B in cash)

-VG +15% (New York State Supreme Court denies Shell's petitions to overturn arbitration award issued in favor of Venture Global in Aug 2025)

-KTB +13% (earnings, guidance)

-PLUG +13% (earnings, guidance)

-BBY +11% (earnings, guidance)

-OUST +11% (earnings, guidance)

-PINS +10% (announces $1B strategic investment from Elliott and $2B of near-term share repurchases)

-SEM +8.3% (to be acquired by Consortium led by Robert A. Ortenzio, Martin F. Jackson and WCAS at $16.50/share in cash)

-DAVE +6.4% (earnings, guidance)

-LNG +5.2% (energy strength amid Iranian war)

-AVAV +5.1% (remains in active negotiations with the U.S. Space Force on a contract amendment to deliver ground stations supporting the SCAR program after the contract was temporarily paused)

-VSNT +5.0% (earnings, color)

-TGT +3.8% (earnings, guidance)

Downside:

-MDB -27% (earnings, guidance)

-SGRY -22% (earnings, guidance)

-LIF -19% (earnings, guidance)

-SE -15% (earnings, guidance)

-ONON -13% (earnings, guidance)

-HROW -12% (earnings, guidance)

-CRDO -11% (earnings, guidance)

-FRO -8.1% (supertanker weakness amid Iranian war)

-SRAD -7.1% (earnings, guidance)

-ESPR -6.7% (acquires Corstasis Therapeutics for $75M upfront payment)

-AZO -5.2% (earnings, color)

-DHT -5.2% (supertanker weakness amid Iranian war)

-COHR -4.7% (pullback following NVDIA AI deal momentum)

-ACHR -4.5% (earnings, guidance)

-CI -3.9% (names President & COO Brian Evanko as new CEO; effective July 1st; Affirms FY26 outlook)

-UAL -3.8% (airline weakness amid Iranian war)

-DAL -3.6% (airline weakness amid Iranian war)

-AS -3.1% (prices 20.6M shares at $36.40/shr for gross proceeds ~$750M)

-ECO -2.9% (supertanker weakness amid Iranian war)

-GEV -2.6% (invests $30M in Sesto San Giovanni facility expansion)

-TCOM -2.3% (travel stock weakness amid Iranian war)

-BKNG -2.2% (travel stock weakness amid Iranian war)

Back with a trading long rental in the indexes: 

 *  (SPY)  $674.47 

*  (QQQ)  $594.98 

From Peter Boockvar:

Not even China can keep the Strait open/Bonds no safe haven/Some earnings/LSTA breaks

Whenever there was a confrontation with Iran the question was always, ‘whatever if the Strait of Hormuz closes?’ It was always the worst nightmare scenario but never seemed to come to pass, especially because China gets about 45% of their crude oil needs from the Middle East with 11% from Iran in particular and they had their economic say to Iran. Well, here we now are, it seems. Iranian officials said they are closing it, via bombing threats, even though US Central Command said that is not the case. Either way, tanker prices have skyrocketed, insurance is only available at much higher prices, if one can get it, and we know the delivery of both crude and LNG is about to fall dramatically.

According to a Reuters story, the cost of shipping 2 million barrels of oil from the Middle East to China in a VLCC (very large crude carrier) rose to about $425,000 per day, a record high. That is double the price seen Friday. And, “Atlantic rates rose to $61,500 per day on Monday, up 43%, or $18,750, from Friday, according to Spark Commodities, a pricing assessment agency for LNG shipping. Pacific rates rose to $41,000 per day, up 45%, or $12,750, from Friday.”

Link: www.reuters.com/

Markets seemed to have gotten off easy yesterday and even after the closing of the Strait story came out yesterday afternoon, it didn’t really respond so what we see on the screens this morning is a definite delayed reaction.

Back to my point earlier that China gets almost half of its crude shipments via the Strait, they are already vocal on allowing safe travel of tanker shipments and according to Bloomberg, have “been pressuring Iranian officials behind the scenes, urging them to avoid action that would disrupt Qatari gas exports or other energy shipments making their way through the Strait. So far, at least four commercial ships have reportedly been damaged.” A spokeswoman at the Chinese Foreign Ministry said today “China urges all parties to immediately cease military operations, avoid escalating tensions and safeguard the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.” And every other Mideast country, particularly Qatar and with its LNG exports, are pressuring Iran in the same fashion.

US Treasuries are no safety trade and neither are any global sovereign bonds with yields spiking around the world because of the inflationary pressure from the spike in energy costs. The US dollar is rallying again and is the safety trade because Europe and most of Asia in particular import most of their energy needs. So, maybe less safety and more energy price protected is the US, especially with natural gas where the US is a dominant LNG producer and exporter.

The 2 yr inflation breakeven in the TIPS market jumped 9 bps yesterday and by another 5 bps today to 2.95%, after getting as low as 2.67% two weeks ago, and that is the highest since last April. The 5 yr breakeven was up 6 yesterday and another 3 bps today to 2.54%, a one month high. The 10 yr breakeven was up a more modest 4 bps yesterday and 1.5 bps today to 2.31% as eventually that Strait will reopen.

Rate cut odds thru year end are shrinking. Odds of two cuts are down to 64% (100% chance of one, 64% of a 2nd). It was 100% priced in as of Friday’s close for two and 40% chance of a 3rd.

Particularly in Australia, the RBA Governor Michele Bullock said today that every meeting is now live and don’t be surprised if they hike rates in a few weeks at their March meeting. The Aussie 2 yr yield jumped by 15 bps to 4.31%, the highest since November 2023.

US 2 yr Inflation Breakeven

It was 2022 the last time I really paid attention to European natural gas prices, the TTF (Title Transfer Facility) price metric. It’s of course popping again today. It got as high as 339 per Mwh in 2022 for perspective. If only Germany left its natural gas plants on and if only Europe allowed natural gas fracking.

TTF Natural Gas Price

Overall, markets right now are impossible to trade because the Strait can reopen at any time. The Iranians can see regime change at any time. Or the reverse can be where they fight on and the Strait remains essentially closed for a longer period of time.

To some earnings calls even though of course the macro is dominating.

From Norwegian Cruise Lines, down 10.5% yesterday:

With an activist involved, Elliott, in the stock and a new CEO, the flaws were highlighted that needed fixing. “Let me be clear, our strategy is sound, our execution and coordination have not been, and a culture of accountability is essential and necessary going forward.” Point here, and that was further discussed, is that they had some missteps with too much capacity in the Caribbean as one example, among others.

“We entered 2026 slightly behind our ideal booking curve in certain itineraries, creating near term pressure on pricing and yield, which is evident in our guidance.”

From the Target earnings release that just came out where they met top line and comp estimates (they were down 2.5%) but beat on the bottom line:

“Target saw a healthy, positive sales increase in February, serving as an important milestone on our path back to growth this year.”

With their 2026 guide, “Net sales growth in a range of 2% compared with 2025. This expectation reflects a small increase in comparable sales, with new store and non-merchandise sales contributing more than one percentage point of growth. The company expects to grow net sales in every quarter of the year.”

From the Best Buy earnings release where they had a mixed quarter with Q4 holiday comps down .8% y/o/y but the stock is jumping pre-market:

“Our data sources show our overall market share was at least flat, pointing to slightly softer customer demand for our industry during the holiday quarter.”

“From a merchandising perspective, the largest drivers of the comparable sales decrease on a weighted basis were home theater and appliances. These drivers were partially offset by growth in computing and mobile phones.”

From Ingram Micro, a larger distributor of tech products:

“From a customer category perspective, enterprise remained quite strong while SMB continued to improve for the fourth straight quarter of sequential growth. Geographically, we had top line growth across all four regions.”

Not surprisingly, “we again had significant sales of GPU and other AI related products in our advanced solutions business.”

“Client and endpoint solutions grew 8.8% with strong demand for notebooks and desktops as the refresh cycle has continued through 2025, and now into 2026.”

And what about pricing with rising component costs, particularly in memory? “I would call our revenue estimates conservative in this regard because we are starting in Q1, starting to see ASPs increase. We did not really see that in Q4. We didn’t see any notable pull forward in Q4 either. But we are starting to see those price increases kick in, which would have an increase in revenue as well as cost of sales. But the wild card there is where is the sort of fungibility of the demand cycle through that. And it’s also taking a little bit longer to get the product because of the constraints that exist.”

Back to private credit for a moment in light of the Blackstone news that BCRED is seeing a pick up in redemptions, the LSTA Leveraged Loan index closed yesterday below its April 2025 lows. It’s now at the lowest level since June 2023 at 94.24 cents on the dollar.

LSTA Leveraged Loan Index

Treasury Auctions

11 a.m.: Treasury Announces a 4 and 8 Bill Auction;

11 a.m.: Treasury buyback announcement (liq support);

11:30 a.m.: Treasury hosts a $90B 6-Week Bill Auction

Fed Speakers:

9:55 a.m.: Fed Bank of New York President Williams (Voter) speaks before the ACU Governmental Affairs Conference 2026 organized by America's Credit Unions, Washington, DC ( Text and moderated Q&A expected. Media availability for reporters in attendance);

10:10 a.m.: Fed Bank of Kansas City President Schmid (Non-Voter) speaks on monetary policy and the economic outlook before the Metro Denver Executive Club, Denver, CO (Text and audience Q&A expected. Audio-only livestream available);

11:55 a.m.: Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Kashkari (Voter) participates in conversation before the 2026 Bloomberg Invest Conference, NYC (. No embargoed text. No audience Q&A. No media Q&A. Livestream at minnneapolisfed.org)

Economic Calendar

Here is a good review of the war with Iran:

I sold out my index trading longs just now — for a quick profit:

*  (SPY)  $677.01

*  (QQQ)  $597.11

From earlier this morning:

Trading Long Rental

With S&P futures -126 handles and Nasdaq futures -581 handles I have taken a trading long rental in the indices:

* (SPY) $673.94

* (QQQ) $594.13

Position: Long SPY (S), QQQ (S)

By Doug Kass Mar 3, 2026 6:20 AM EST

As I wrote last week, it was always my contention that the Block  (XYZ)  layoffs were not due to AI:

From 2/27:

FEB 27, 2026 6:25 AM EST

Block's Layoff Announcement Is Misleading and Has Likely Been Misinterpreted by the Markets

The tweet below about Block (XYZ) laying off about half its employees due to “AI” is exactly right, in my view.

In my opinion, Block’s statements about the layoffs could be construed as materially misleading as well:

This is not how layoffs due to a new technology work. If this were true, it would start at first with pilot projects and be reflected in its early stages by slowing headcount growth, then flattening, then slow attrition, followed by smaller buckets of layoffs over time. NOT a step function out of nowhere, where half of the employees are fired all of the sudden, with little to no detail about what exactly is in place right now to replace everything they were doing.

Not how it works.

In my view, these layoffs are happening because Block is a mature company, with no revenue growth (in the just reported Q, revenue grew at about 3.5% Y-Y).

This is one more Jack Dorsey venture. He is seemingly a guy who has made a lot of money but has no idea how to run businesses.

Whatever one thinks of Elon Musk, at least he knows how to run a business. That is why Space X ran circles around NASA and Boeing (BA) , and whoever else was building overpriced rockets. Musk was able to reduce headcount at Twitter from about 8,000 employees, to 1,500 employees almost overnight, and nothing changed there with regard to how the business functioned at a bricks and mortar level. It was just full of bloat, that was cut out. Musk did this long before anyone had heard anything about AI.

It was all just Jack Dorsey bloat. It does not take AI to fire “employees” who are sitting around and doing nothing but whine.

But expect to hear more of this from either businesses in similar positions or bigger companies with business units in similar position, where the parent company ( (MSFT) for example) has a vested interest in AI. Employees will be laid off for normal business reasons and the company laying the people off, rather than admitting business sucks, or they have a broken business model, or there is no growth, or they are burning too much cash on overhead, will just turn around and say “we are laying off these employees due to AI.”

It is just a bunch of baloney. The Block thing is obvious, in my view. It is just Twitter, pre Musk.

A big pile of Jack Dorsey bloat.

Chart of the Day: 

Bonus — Here are some great links:

Choppy Waters, Hidden Currents

Risk Management Matters

Own the Things That Make It All Possible

With S&P futures -126 handles and Nasdaq futures -581 handles I have taken a trading long rental in the indices:

*  (SPY)  $673.94

*  (QQQ)  $594.13

The S&P Short Range Oscillator slipped to less overbought — at 0.93% vs. 1.72%.

Before you listen to the sunshine boys on Wall Street and in the media, read this:

The Pollyannas are wrong — the private equity/credit market is deteriorating rapidly and steadily:

* And the likely cause for the -100 handle drop in S&P futures overnight: