Daily Diary

Stephen GuilfoyleStephen Guilfoyle
DATE:

That's a Wrap on a Volatile Week

... And that is that. The bell has rung its last for the day and for the week. 

Treasuries were stable on Friday, as were equities. The major indexes ended the day mixed, capping off a volatile week fraught with geopolitical risk and nudged around by fourth-quarter earnings reports. 

The S&P 500 gained two points on Friday. Two points, or 0.03%. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.28%. However, the broader market did not fare as well. Small-caps were hit by profit-takers after what had been almost two weeks of outperformance. The Russell 2000 was taken to the woodshed for a loss of 1.82% as the S&P 600 gave up 1.79%.

Seven of the 11 S&P sector SPDR ETFs closed out the day in the green, led by the Materials  (XLB)  as the Financials  (XLF)  posted the sharpest losses in aggregate. The semiconductor stocks were all over the place. Intel  (INTC)  was easily the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 at -17%, Advanced Micro Devices  (AMD)  and Nvidia  (NVDA)  added 2.3% and 1.5%, respectively, which helped support the indexes.

As always, it has been a pleasure subbing in for Doug. I hope you all have a safe and restful weekend and show up here bright-eyed and bushy-tailed on Monday morning. That goes double for those of you in northern climes who are facing down this storm and those who must travel. 

God bless, and good night. I thank you all for joining us today. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Jan 23, 2026, 4:34 PM EST

Baseball Trivia Answer

Q) Only two teams in MLB post-integration (1947) history finished an entire full season with an OBP (on base percentage) of less than .280. One AL team and one NL team. They both finished those respective seasons with the worst won-loss record in the majors. Name them.

A)  The 1965 New York Mets posted a .277 on base percentage while finishing the season at 50-112 and in tenth place in the National League. Ed Kranepool led the regulars with a .253 batting average and Ron Swoboda led the team with 19 HR. 

The 2024 Chicago White Sox posted a .278 on base percentage, while finishing the season in fifth place in the AL Central Division at 41-121. Lenyn Sosa led the regulars with a .254 batting average and Andrew Benintendi led the team with 20 HR.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Jan 23, 2026, 3:15 PM EST

Walmart Too

Walmart  (WMT)  is another name about 60% of the way into developing a potential head-and-shoulders pattern of bearish reversal...

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Jan 23, 2026, 2:56 PM EST

Baseball Trivia

In 2020, the Cincinnati Reds set a Major League record in a dubious way, posting a .212 batting average as a team. Of course, that was the Covid year, and teams only played 60 games for the season. For a full season, the 1968 New York Yankees hit .214 and that's the "real" record low team BA for a 154 or 162 game season.

Interestingly, only two teams in MLB post-integration (1947) history finished an entire full season with an OBP (on base percentage) of less than .280. One AL team and one NL team. They both finished those respective seasons with the worst won-loss record in the majors. Name them. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Jan 23, 2026, 2:19 PM EST

Friday Afternoon Tweet (Poll)

https://www.twitter.com/ChrisJVersace/status/2014753616716837346

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Jan 23, 2026, 1:55 PM EST

Swing Support for Ondas

Readers will see that "Stocks Under $10" holding Ondas Holdings  (ONDS)  has found support at its 21-day EMA on consecutive days this week. This implies that the swing crowd to this point has not yet turned on the stock. Lose that line and the stock could test its 50-day SMA down around $9.50. The stock is in danger of potentially developing a head-and-shoulders pattern of bearish reversal.

 Just a heads up. For now, my price target remains $13.50. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Jan 23, 2026, 1:40 PM EST

Positive Chart Development

On Thursday (yesterday) morning, I wrote to the "Stocks Under $10" crowd and cautioned that one of my core holdings, Rocket Lab USA  (RKLB) , could be developing a head-and-shoulders pattern of bearish reversal. 

I wrote, "Right now, the head portion of the pattern is still not completed, so this may be a stretch, but my readers and followers who are in this investment need to be fully cognizant of this threat. My target price remains $110." 

Well, the action on both Thursday and Friday has somewhat mitigated that threat without fully wiping it clean. 

Readers will see that over the past two days, what might be the start of a move of bullish continuance. Interestingly, support has been found at RKLB's 21-day EMA, which does imply increased participation by the swing crowd. 

The stock is up 5.7% since I wrote that article roughly 26 hours ago.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Jan 23, 2026, 12:25 PM EST

Lunchtime Tweet

https://www.twitter.com/carleygarner/status/2014702981485342915

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Jan 23, 2026, 12:13 PM EST

Trading SLB

Readers may recall back on Jan. 5, when I discussed my long positions in SLB  (SLB) , Haliburton  (HAL) and Baker Hughes  (BKR)  as I saw the situation in Venezuela heating up for firms specializing in oil services. Fast forward two and a half weeks and these positions are now up 15%  (SLB) , 8.5%  (HAL)  and 8.5%  (BKR)  respectively.

The situation is this. I gave readers a $48 target price for SLB and really never got a chance to get back to the oil services trade given how many names I trade and just so many articles I can actually write. Long story short, SLB traded up into the $51 area on Thursday and is giving back some of those gains on Friday.

No, given how parabolic the move was, I do not have a new target price just yet. That does not relieve me (or us) of the discipline driven responsibility to take a little something off at target. This piece serves as that heads up.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Jan 23, 2026, 10:46 AM EST

Just Minutes to Go!



S&P Futures: -15 vs FV.

Nasdaq Futures: -77 vs FV.

US Ten-Year Note: 4.25%

US Two-Year Note: 3.62%

US Three-Month T-Bill: 3.67%

Gold: +0.58%

Silver: +3.46%

Bitcoin: +0.04%

US Dollar Index: flat

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Jan 23, 2026, 9:20 AM EST

Friday Morning Tweet

https://www.twitter.com/BBGreatMoments/status/2014475161114968394

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Jan 23, 2026, 8:00 AM EST

120 Minutes to Go!

S&P Futures:-9 vs FV.

Nasdaq Futures: -46 vs FV.

US Ten-Year Note: 4.23%

US Two-Year Note: 3.61%

US Three-Month T-Bill: 3.67%

Gold: +0.4%

Silver: +2.52%

Bitcoin: -0.29%

US Dollar Index: -0.03%

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Jan 23, 2026, 7:33 AM EST

It's Friday. Let's Go!

Good Morning!

Friday! Fri-Yay! Your best pal Dougie is out today. You know what that means. Let's go. Every one of you. Up and at 'em. There is no fear here. There is no time for fear. We are relentless. 

Is your enemy sleeping in? No. Your enemy has been up all night planning to take what's yours. So, we match effort for effort, and fire for fire. We are highly motivated. We are truly dedicated. We will work without hesitation towards the defense of our families and the preservation of our way of life.

Now, hit the deck (only if you can, if you can't do something else, but do something). Just start pushing. Feel that? Strength. Endurance. Every time your chest hits that floor and your triceps push that frame back to its upright position without breaking form, those who would dominate our people weep. They weep because they fear and fear is but for the wicked. They weep because they know deep down in their hearts that we are the mighty and we stand in their way. They know that we can not be defeated.

Let me hear your blood curdling roar. Let me know that you will not quit, that you will not ever quit, that you would rather die on this field today than let them win. 

Now, go get yourself a cup of joe. I'm Sarge and I'll see you back here in a short while.

Always Faithful

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Jan 23, 2026, 6:31 AM EST