Closing Breadth

 S&P 500 Sector ETFs

 % Movers

After-Hours % Advancers

After-Hours % Decliners

No trades since premarket.

As of 12:45 PM:

Large-Cap Stock % Gainers 

Large-Cap Stock % Decliners

Chart from 11:06 a.m. ET.

(PG)  and  (KMB)  = world's fair.

I have maintained a proprietary (read: my own!) technical momentum model.

That model, for the first time, says to sell gold.

(GLD)  is trading at $445.03.

That said, I am not shorting GLD - not my style.

But bookmark this post!

With S&P cash +51 handles I added to my very small short Index calls positions.

I have moved to medium-sized short  (IWM)  (from small sized) at $270.41.

From Peter Boockvar

Detente and other important things going on

Trade detente in Europe, some more military bases back in Greenland and now we can move on to a full focus on earnings and everything else.

JGB yields are lower for a 2nd day but still up notably so far this week particularly on the very long end. The 30 yr yield backed off by 5 bps but still up almost 20 bps this week. The 10 yr yield is up 6 bps from last Friday after dipping by 4 bps overnight. With this the yen is weaker and the Nikkei jumped another 1.7% and is now up 6.7% in three weeks. The BoJ Friday is expected to leave rates unchanged at .75% after hiking at the prior meeting but we of course eagerly await guidance from Governor Ueda.

European bond yields are slightly lower though gilt yields are higher. The US 10 yr yield is spot on 4.25%, flat from yesterday’s close. Yields are jumping higher in Australia with the 2 yr yield up 7 bps and the 10 yr higher by 2 bps (and 9 on the week) after a stronger than expected December jobs report. The Aussie$ is quietly at the strongest level vs the US dollar since October 2024.

The Norges Bank kept its deposit rate unchanged at 4% as expected and Governor Wolden Bache said “We are not in a hurry to reduce the policy rate further. Inflation is still too high...It is now prices of domestically produced goods and services that are keeping inflation elevated and that is related to the significant increases in firms costs over the past few years.”

With respect to stock market sentiment, capturing the mood before the Tuesday selloff and Wednesday rebound, Investors Intelligence reflected an extreme level of bullishness as I define a spread above 40 as Bulls rose to 59.6 from 57.4 while Bears are down to just 15.4 from 16.7. After rising to the highest level since November 2024 last week, Bulls fell by 6.3 pts to 43.2 after rising by 7 in the week before. Bears slipped by 4.5 pts to 32.7 after falling to near the lowest since November 2024 last week. Last week, the NAAIM Exposure Index was up to 96 (100 is about the top end historically) and we’ll get a fresh read today. The Citi Panic/Euphoria index remains well into Euphoria and now the Bank of America index from Michael Hartnett is in ‘sell’ mode due to his variety of indicators. Bottom line, mattering only for the short term, it’s always good to be aware of our investing surroundings and the mood is ebullient.

United Airlines traded up 2.2% yesterday after a 4.3% fall on Tuesday and said this of note on their earnings call:

Revenues grew 4.8% y/o/y with 6.5% capacity growth and “Premium cabins outperformed main cabin once again in the quarter. Premium cabin revenue was up 12% y/o/y on 7% more capacity...Main cabin revenues were up 1% on 6% more capacity for the quarter.”

“For the year, premium revenues increased approximately 11%, while standard and basic economy revenues were down approximately 5%.” That lower case (i) economy but United said some of the weakness was due to other airlines budget type excess capacity.

“We did see a nice bounce back in our international flying in Q4 after a challenge in Q3.”

“Based on what we’ve seen so far this year, bookings and yields are outpacing the strong start from last year, and we’re hopeful that the momentum will continue, which could admittedly cause our guidance to feel a bit conservative.” They particularly highlighted strength in business travel.

“We also expect the domestic capacity environment to be quite favorable for the first half of 2026, with small, but meaningful amount of perennial unprofitable capacity by others leaving the market.”

From Knight Swift the trucking company who rallied 5% yesterday:

“During the fourth quarter, the truckload market saw a demand that was generally stable, but lacking the typical broad based seasonal lift and demand until late in the quarter. Seasonal project activity occurred in October, but wound down quickly in early November. As a result, truckload volumes were lower than we expected.”

“While we did see some improvement in overall demand and a tightening spot market in December, it was a reduction in available capacity that seemed to be the primary driver of the tightening market.”

This tightening with capacity leaving the market, something we heard from JB Hunt, will eventually lead to higher pricing power for the industry. “Aside from the regulatory cleanup (steps the DoT has taken), capacity continues to erode, especially in the one-way truckload market where struggling carriers are running out of liquidity and large players continue to shift towards dedicated services.”

And from this, “market spot rates and the spot versus contract spread improved exiting 2025 to the best level seen since early 2022.”

Small-cap stocks are off to a rare bullish start. History says tech is the better bet. - MarketWatch

Here is where we are today (and again!) in the markets:

"Once a bull market gets underway and once you reach the point where everybody has made money no matter what system he or she followed, a crowd is attracted into the game that is responding not to interest rates and profits but simply to the fact that it seems a mistake be out of stocks. In effect, these people superimpose and I-can't-miss-the-party factor on top of the fundamental factors that drive the market. Like Pavlov's dog, these "investors" learn that when the bell rings - in this case, the one that opens the New York Stock Exchange at 9:30 AM - they get fed. Through this daily reinforcement, they become convinced that there is a God and that He wants them to get rich."

- Warren Buffett, November 1999

I have multiple meetings with companies and my investors today — will be out most of the afternoon.

I will be out all of tomorrow. 

Bonus — Here are some great links:

Is U.S. Stock Dominance Finally Slipping?

The Great Small-Cap Broadening

Equity Flows

RSI Signals Most Are Missing

S&P futures are +43 handles in the early (4:55 AM) going and I am back shorting index commons:

*  (SPY)  $689.62

*  (QQQ)  $621.64

The S&P Short Range Oscillator now stands at 3.16% vs. 2.54% — increasingly overbought.