Daily Diary

Stephen GuilfoyleStephen Guilfoyle
DATE:

The Tenth Inning

Equities had a rather nice session on Thursday. Not a rip-roaring rally, but a nice day. 

The S&P 500 gained 0.26% for the regular session, led by KLA Corp  (KLAC)  and BlackRock  (BLK) . The Nasdaq Composite added 0.25%. The major indexes were once again outperformed by the small-caps as the S&P 600 gained 1.44% and the Russell 2000 tacked on 0.86%. Despite the apparent market strength, defensive sectors still outperformed cyclicals for the most part.

As the U.S. appeared to step back from taking military action against the regime in Iran, Treasury debt securities and gold backed off as well. However, silver still had a nice day. Bitcoin had a tough day but is still trading above Wednesday morning's levels.

Have a nice evening, gang. Tomorrow is Friday or is it Fri-Yay? Either way, this is a three-day weekend and I got my kid who still lives in NY coming down to Florida for a visit, so I'm fired up. 

God bless you all. Good night. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Jan 15, 2026, 4:32 PM EST

Here's How GE Looks Ahead of Next Week's Earnings

GE Aerospace  (GE)  is set to report its fourth-quarter financial results ahead of the opening bell on Thursday, Jan. 22. At present, Wall Street consensus for the period is for adjusted EPS of $1.44 on revenue of $11.2 billion. Results like that would compare well to the year-ago print of $1.32 per share while reflecting year-over-year revenue growth of 13.4%.

Readers will see in the chart above that GE sold off hard in April coming out of a double-top pattern of bearish reversal. The stock is now up more than 100% since bottoming. Throughout that entire run higher, GE has been developing a rising wedge pattern of bearish reversal that still has not closed. The stock has used its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) as support for about a month, while also taking back its 50-day simple moving average (SMA). GE has not touched its 200-day SMA since April.

As for the indicators, Relative Strength is better than neutral, but off of its strongest levels. Below the chart, the daily moving average convergence divergence (MACD) was set up bullishly until very recently. Suddenly, the histogram of the 9-day EMA has fallen below the zero-bound while the 12-day EMA has crossed below the 26-day EMA. These are things that can be seen as warning signs. 

My guess is that GE is at some risk for a bout of profit-taking next week. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Jan 15, 2026, 3:51 PM EST

Baseball Trivia Answers

Q) Only two pitchers since 1947 have lost 20 or more games in a season and still won more games than they lost. Who are they? Hint, one was a National Leaguer, one was an American Leaguer and they both finished that year in the Cy Young Award voting for that season.

Extra Credit) The worst record since 1947 for a 20-game loser was 3-21. Who was he? Hint... He's very famous for having done something unique in the World Series.

Answers....

- In 1973, Wilbur Wood of the Chicago White Sox went 24-20 with a 3.46 ERA. He started 48 games, completing 21 and finished 5th for the American Cy Young Award.

- In 1979, Phil Niekro of the Atlanta Braves went 21-20 with a 3.39 ERA. He started 44 games and completed 23. He finished sixth for the National League Cy Young Award.

- In 1954, Don Larsen of the Baltimore Orioles went 3-21 with a 4.37 ERA. He started 28 games, completing 12. Larsen would pitch a perfect game for the New York Yankees in the 1956 World Series after going 11-5 that year with a 3.26 ERA. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Jan 15, 2026, 3:34 PM EST

Baseball Trivia Time: 'Drop and Give Me 20 Losses'

Since integration (1947), no major league hurler has lost more than 24 games in one season. Roger Craig and Jack Fisher of the 1962 and 1965 New York Mets hold that dubious distinction. Only two pitchers since 1947 have lost 20 or more games in a season and still won more games than they lost. Who are they? Hint, one was a National Leaguer, one was an American Leaguer and they both finished that year in the Cy Young Award voting for that season.

Extra Credit: The worst record since 1947 for a 20-game loser was 3-21. Who was he? Hint... He's very famous for having done something unique in the World Series. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Jan 15, 2026, 2:21 PM EST

Is Johnson & Johnson Setting Up for an 'Explosive Move'?

Johnson & Johnson  (JNJ)  is set to release its fourth-quarter financial results next Wednesday, Jan. 21. The Wall Street consensus is for adjusted EPS of $2.49 on revenue of close to $24.2 billion. Results like that would compare well to the year-ago print of $2.04 per share for the same quarter on annual sales growth of 7.3%.

Sales growth at a pace like that would be the strongest that JNJ has experienced for any single quarter in four years. However, of the 20 sell-side analysts that I know of that cover J NJ, 16 have revised their earnings estimates lower since the period began. Only two have revised their numbers higher while just two have sat on their hands.

The stock is already up 54% over eight months and may be looking at an explosive move next week...

Readers will see that JNJ shares have responded favorably to two different falling wedges, which are patterns of bullish reversal — this past September and one very recently. However, that second wedge existed completely within a much larger rising wedge pattern of bearish reversal that extends all the way back to that late September breakout. Additionally, Relative Strength is quite robust, and still improving. 

Below the chart, the daily MACD (moving average convergence divergence) is set up about as bullishly as it could be. Within the MACD, the histogram of the 9-day EMA (exponential moving average) has recently moved into positive territory. That is a short-term bullish signal. Above that, we see that the 12-day EMA has crossed above the 26-day EMA without either of those lines having gone near negative territory in months. That's a medium-term bullish signal. 

So, are we looking at a bullish breakout from a bearish pattern? Very possible.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Jan 15, 2026, 1:33 PM EST

Sarcastic Tweet of the Morning...

https://www.twitter.com/KeithMcCullough/status/2011761536742932635

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Jan 15, 2026, 9:25 AM EST

60 Minutes to Go!

S&P Futures:+31 vs FV.

Nasdaq Futures: +236 vs FV.

US Ten-Year Note: 4.14%

US Two-Year Note: 3.54%

US Three-Month T-Bill: 3.65%

Gold: -0.49%

Silver: -2.17%

Bitcoin: -0.8%

US Dollar Index: +0.14%

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Jan 15, 2026, 8:35 AM EST

Wednesday Tweet (That I Somehow Missed)

https://www.twitter.com/GaryKaltbaum/status/2011484854324457924

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Jan 15, 2026, 7:48 AM EST

120 Minutes to Go!

S&P Futures:+26 vs FV.

Nasdaq Futures: +203 vs FV.

US Ten-Year Note: 4,15%

US Two-Year Note: 3.54%

US Three-Month T-Bill: 3.65%

Gold: -0.37%

Silver: -0.82%

Bitcoin: -1,08%

US Dollar Index: +0.04%

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Jan 15, 2026, 7:37 AM EST

Rise and Shine, It's Your Friendly Madman Motivator!

Have you ever woken up early in the morning and said to yourself... "Self, I hope I run into a half-crazed madman at zero dark-thirty, while Wall Street sleeps, who motivates the heck out of me and gets me highly motivated to go take on this day." Well, if that was you who said that, today is your lucky day. For I am that madman, for I am your favorite trader, investor, economist, infantry NCO and all-round happy fellow. I am truly dedicated to motivating you and to driving you to be the best man or woman you can be. They call me Sarge.

No, my kind demeanor this morning does not mean that you're getting out of some physical training. Can't have a strong constitution without something strong beneath it. Every one of you who is able (the rest of you do something you are capable of), drop and give me what you've got. Beat your face. Think you've got 10 push-ups, do 12, think you've got 75, do 85. Pain is just weakness leaving the body.

Now, roll over. We're doing crunches or sit-ups. Hear the ancestors cry out with joy as we get stronger bit by bit. Hear those who embrace evil cry out in dismay. Oh yeah. Come get some of this. It's Thursday morning. We are here to take what's ours and defend those who need defending. For we are the mighty. For we are the ones the others depend on. Fear? Only the wicked know fear and the wicked shall tremble before us. Go get some coffee. I'll see you kids back here in a few. Rah.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Jan 15, 2026, 6:35 AM EST