Volume

- NYSE volume 23% below its one-month average

- NASDAQ volume 7% below its one-month average

- VIX index: down 1.63% to 13.85

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

With S&P cash +29 handles I have moved to medium-sized short the indices:

*  (SPY)  $687.85

*  (QQQ)  $621.52

I have re-shorted CoreWeave  (CRWV)  at $80.99 after having covered my previous short less than a week ago at $65.65.

From last Wednesday:

CoreWeave Covered

I covered my CoreWeave (CRWV) (-$3.88) short at $65.65.

I plan to re-short any strength.

Position: None

By Doug Kass Dec 17, 2025 12:20 PM EST

* Carry on, carry on...

Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy?

Caught in a landslide, no escape from reality

Open your eyes, look up to the skies and see

I'm just a poor boy, I need no sympathy

Because I'm easy come, easy go

Little high, little low

Any way the wind blows doesn't really matter to me, to me

Mama, just killed a man

Put a gun against his head, pulled my trigger, now he's dead

Mama, life had just begun

But now I've gone and thrown it all away

Mama, ooh, didn't mean to make you cry

If I'm not back again this time tomorrow

Carry on, carry on as if nothing really matters

- Queen, Bohemian Rhapsody

Equities continue to rise, despite:

* The equity risk premium has become an equity risk discount

* The market is overbought (see S&P Short Range Oscillator)

* Market breadth has a foul odor

* The CNBC Blather Index (a contrarian measure of investor sentiment and group stink) was 95% bulls in the last week

And the Fed Funds rates is now equivalent to the two-year Treasury note yield. (Hint: No rate cuts anytime soon!)

I have a lunch with some friends.

I will be back by 2 PM.

Run don't walk to watch EY From SoFi (Liz), Guy and Dan on MRKT CALL.

Lets go to the tape! 

Strong GDP Rains On Rate Cut Parade

- NYSE volume 15% below its one-month average;

- Nasdaq volume 3% above its one-month average;

- VIX index: down 1.78% to 13.83

* On The Death Star...

Peter Navarro on CNBC this morning. Watch CNBC's full interview with White House senior trade counselor Peter Navarro

Some deterioration in market breadth this morning - a reversal from the last few days:

- CD4P    

    1 minute ago

    The S&P 500 closed at 286.63 on January 20, 1989, which was the day Ronald Reagan's second term ended.

  Financial Overview    

    Ronald Reagan's presidency saw significant growth in the stock market. The S&P 500 increased by 67% during his second term (January 20, 1985 – January 20, 1989). Over his entire eight years in office, the index saw a cumulative return of 113.3%.

    Key Insights

    - Overall Performance: The S&P 500 grew substantially during Reagan's tenure, from a value around 129.04 in January 1981 to 286.63 at the end of his second term.        

    - Market Events: Despite the overall strong performance, the market experienced "Black Monday" on October 19, 1987, the worst single-day percentage drop in Wall Street history.

    - Economic Context: The period ended with the nation enjoying one of its longest recorded periods of peacetime prosperity. 

    The price of gold at the end of Ronald Reagan's second term was approximately $405.50 per troy ounce. Reagan's second term ended on January 20, 1989, when George H.W. Bush was inaugurated. 

    During Reagan's full two terms (1981-1989), the price of gold actually saw an overall decrease of around 4.13%. It started his presidency at approximately $400 per ounce and closed his time in office with a relatively similar, but slightly higher, price. 

    By the end of Ronald Reagan's second term (January 1989), the U.S. national debt had grown substantially, reaching nearly $2.9 trillion, more than doubling from when he took office, driven by tax cuts, increased military spending, and economic factors, as noted in this YouTube video transcript.

    Key Figures During Reagan's Presidency:

    - Start (Jan 1981): Around $998 billion (just under $1 trillion).

    - End (Jan 1989): Approximately $2.87 trillion (often rounded to $2.9 trillion). 

    Context:    

    - The debt surged from roughly $1 trillion to nearly $3 trillion over his eight years, a significant increase that sparked national debate on fiscal policy. 

I shorted more  (JPM)  $324.69 and  (MS)  $180.31 this morning.

I am sticking with my  (AMZN)  long holding, up another $3.40 this morning .

But, the +$11/share rise since last week's buy makes it tempting to take some off the table.

From last week:

Buying More Amazon

I am moving towards medium sized, buying Amazon (AMZN) after the close at around $221.75.

Position: Long AMZN (S)

By Doug KassDec 17, 2025 6:19 PM EST

With S&P cash +4 handles, I am adding to my index shorts:

*  (SPY)  $685.18

*  (QQQ)  $620.02

Upside:

-TRIB +86% (reports prelim Q3; announces capital structure, growth actions)

-SOC +18% (PHMSA approved the restart plan for the Las Flores Pipeline System)

-NVO +8.4% (Wegovy pill approved in the US as first oral GLP-1 for weight management; Expects to launch Wegovy pill in the US in early January 2026)

-ZIM +8.1% (received proposals from multiple parties to acquire all outstanding ordinary shares of the Company as part of strategic review process)

-IINN +6.9% (reaffirms $49.5M in binding purchase orders; outlines 2026 milestones)

-ALB +3.7% (momentum)

-HII +2.7% (higher off potential ‘Golden Fleet’ production business, contracts)

Downside:

-RVPH -42% (announces written feedback from FDA pre-NDA meeting includes a recommendation to conduct a second Phase 3 trial to generate additional efficacy and safety data prior to NDA submission ofbrilaroxazine for the treatment of schizophrenia)

-BCTX -24% (files to sell 2.79M shares)

-LUNR -7.9% (space stock weakness)

-ASTS -6.1% (space stock weakness)

-RKLB -5.6% (space stock weakness)

-NOW -2.5% (to acquire cyber exposure management and cyber-physical security company Armis for $7.8B from cash on hand and debt (deal had been previously speculated))

Today's Auctions

11 a.m.: Treasury Announces a 4, 8 and 17 Week Bill Auction;

11:30 a.m.: Treasury hosts a $50B 52-Week BillAuction;

11:30 a.m.: Treasury hosts a $75B 6-Week Bill Auction;

1:00 p.m.: Treasury hosts a $28B 2 Year FRN Auction;

1:00 p.m.: Treasury hosts a $70B 5 Year Note Auction;

2:00 p.m.: Treasury Buyback (Liquidity Support)

Economic Calendar for Shortened Week

I'm adding to index shorts in the wee hours:

*  (SPY)  $685.36

*  (QQQ)  $619.31

Fifteen months ago the Federal Reserve began to loosen — with the long bond's (30-year) yield below 4.00%.

Since then, interest rates have been cut by 175 basis points and the long bond's yield is 4.81%:

Bonus: — Here are some great links:

A Merry Rally

The Offense Is Still on the Field - So Why Punt?

The Pro Metals Trade

The New Bull Market Not Being Discussed

Talk Your Book

* Why don't we take a five-minute break?

* Smoke 'em if you got 'em.

"Uh oh, here comes the Bad Year Blimp...In less than a minute Lone Star will be ours... Where are they? They must have hyper jets on that thing. And what do we got on this thing? A Cuisinart?... Light speed is too slow. We will have to go right to Ludacrous Speed/. Sir, we have never gone that fast, I dont know if our ship can handle it. What's the matter Colonel Sandurz, chicken?... What the hell was that? SpaceBalls 1 - they've gone to plaid."

The famous "plaid" quote from Spaceballs is uttered by Barf when the spaceship Eagle 5 goes to "Ludicrous Speed," with the line: "They've gone to plaid!"

This refers to the visual effect where the ship passes through a swirling plaid pattern, far faster than light speed, to escape enemies.

Silver has gone plaid:

The S&P Short Range Oscillator moved to a greater overbought — at 2.47% vs. 1.11%.