Daily Diary

Stephen GuilfoyleStephen Guilfoyle
DATE:

That's a Wrap Folks

Equities had a better-than-decent session after a rocky start. Oracle  (ORCL)  had been hit hard overnight after reporting on Wednesday night and dragged U.S. equity indexes lower overnight. U.S. markets spent the rest of the day on the comeback trail. 

The S&P 500 closed up 0.21% on the regular session, while the Nasdaq Composite surrendered 0.25%. Among the mid-major indexes, the Dow Industrials gained 1.34% on Thursday led by Visa  (V) , while the Russell 2000 ran 1.21% higher. Eight of the 11 S&P sector SPDR ETFs closed in the green as the Materials  (XLB)  and Financials  (XLF)  outperformed. Tech  (XLK)  led the losers in a southerly direction as AI-related stocks were pressured.

Beyond equities, Treasury debt securities rallied and sold off late, ending near where they started. Gold had a nice day. Silver had a really, really nice day and Bitcoin rallied late as well. The U.S. Dollar Index was slightly weaker on the day. Trading volumes were in line with December norms, but still lower than they had been prior to the start of the month.

As always, it has been a pleasure subbing in for Dougie. I hope you all enjoyed the day as well. Have a nice evening, stay safe, and I will see you ate zero dark-thirty on Friday morning. Rock & Roll.

Sarge

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Dec 11, 2025, 4:45 PM EST

Peloton Action

From The Fly:

Peloton Interactive call volume above normal and directionally bullish  (PTON)  | 3:05 PM

Bullish option flow detected in Peloton Interactive with 30,000 calls trading, 3x expected, and implied vol increasing almost 5 points to 58.16%. 12/12 weekly 7 calls and Jan-27 15 calls are the most active options, with total volume in those strikes near 24,400 contracts. The Put/Call Ratio is 0.02. Earnings are expected on February 5th.

Peloton Interactive is a "Stocks Under $10" name. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Dec 11, 2025, 3:40 PM EST

Baseball Trivia Answer

You guys got this one pretty quickly. I expected to get a few "Mickey Mantle" guesses, but you guys were right on it.

Q) Since integration (1947), four Major League batters have hit 40 or more home runs in a season eight times. Two were aided by performance enhancing substances, Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez, so in my opinion, they don't really count. That said, two batters did it legit. Who are they? One is easy. One a little less so.

Answers...

Hank Aaron of the Milwaukee and Atlanta Braves hit 40 or more home runs eight times between 1957 and 1973. Interestingly, Aaron never hit more than 47 HRs in one season. Talk about consistency.

Harmon Killebrew of the original Washington Senators and Minnesota Twins hit 40 or more home runs eight times between 1959 and 1970. Like Aaron, Killebrew also never hit 50 HRs. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Dec 11, 2025, 3:21 PM EST

Baseball Trivia Time

Since integration (1947), four Major League batters have hit 40 or more home runs in a season eight times. Two were aided by performance-enhancing substances, Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez, so, in my opinion, they don't really count. That said, two batters did it legit. Who are they? One is easy. One a little less so. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Dec 11, 2025, 2:42 PM EST

Heads Up on Rocket Lab

Let's talk about Rocket Lab  (RKLB)

For those who do not follow my other work around TheStreet Pro, Rocket Lab is one of our huge success stories at "Stocks Under $10." This name is core to both that series and my own portfolio. 

On Wednesday, December 3, I wrote to that crowd to catch them up with the stock after I had missed some time at work in mid-to-late November. The stock was trading at $42.70 at the time. We were optimistic but observed that a potential inverted head-and-shoulders pattern was possibly developing.

Six days later, on December 9, I wrote to my crew again on RKLB and placed a $65 price target on the shares using the 50-day SMA as my pivot. The potential for an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern had not passed, but the shares had rallied up to $51.60 at the time of that piece.

Here we are just two days later from that second piece. RKLB is up 8.7% as I write this, trading at $62.52. This stock is currently my fourth largest holding.

The Chart

Readers will see that RKLB has more or less smashed what would have been the right shoulder of the would-be bearish setup. The shares have taken back their 50-day SMA, triggering the pivot. Should my $65 target end up being pierced, I will take a token profit and I am likely to assign a new price target to the stock using the October high as my pivot.

Note that Relative Strength is now quite muscular and that the daily MACD is postured far more bullishly as well. The histogram of the 9-day EMA has ramped quickly into positive territory as the 12-day EMA has crossed over and pulled away from the 26-day EMA. Once that 26-day line moves into positive territory, there won't be a less-than-bullish signal on this chart. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Dec 11, 2025, 2:00 PM EST

With Apple Testing Support, Here's a Trade Idea

You will see below that I have overlaid an Andrew's Pitchfork model atop an Apple  (AAPL)  chart going back to the early April lows. You can see that the action from that point forward into the present has almost entirely ranged between the central and lower trendlines of this model. 

The lower trendline is running almost precisely along with the stock's 50-day SMA, which is where professional managers would most likely try to play catch-up had they missed a large portion of the move in this stock.

Relative Strength is well off of its highs and now appears to be closing in on a neutral reading. 

Below the chart, there is some mild trouble brewing. The histogram of the 9-day EMA is just slightly negative, as the 12-day EMA (black line) has now crossed below the 26-day EMA, but with both of those lines in positive territory. These are generally bearish signals, but not overtly so.

Will AAPL find help where it has for the past few months? 

Here is a trade idea:

- Purchase one Jan 9 $280 call (a little out of the money) for roughly $4.85.

- Sell (write) one Jan 9 $300 call (central trend line / rising resistance) for about $0.50.

Add the sale of a discounted put in order to suppress the net debit:

- Sell (write) one Jan 9 $265 put (50-day SMA) for about $2.10.

Net Debit: $2.25

Note: The trader here is willing to lay out a net $2.25 to try to win back $20. Worst case? This trader ends up long 100 shares of the equity at expiration at a net basis of $267.25 with the shares trading below $265 at the time.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Dec 11, 2025, 11:45 AM EST

Meaningless Prediction of the Day

The award goes to...

https://www.twitter.com/wallstengine/status/1999127234016137575

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Dec 11, 2025, 10:05 AM EST

With About 60 Minutes To Go...

S&P futures: -21 vs FV.

Nasdaq futures: -123 vs FV.

US Ten Year Note: 4.135%

US Two Year Note: 3.538%

US Three MonthT-Bill: 3.668%

Gold: +0.22%

Silver:+2.35%

Bitcoin: -2.64%

WTI Crude: -1.18%

Nat Gas: -3.57%

US Dollar Index: 98.48

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Dec 11, 2025, 8:39 AM EST

Early Morning Tweet

https://www.twitter.com/KeithMcCullough/status/1999065975413690544

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Dec 11, 2025, 7:10 AM EST

With Almost Three Hours to Go...

S&P futures: -37 vs FV.

Nasdaq futures: -203 vs FV.

US Ten Year Note: 4.145%

US Two Year Note: 3.45%

US Three MonthT-Bill: 3.668%

Gold: +0.36%

Silver:+2.44%

Bitcoin: -2.36%

WTI Crude: -1.27%

Nat Gas: -2.52%

US Dollar Index: 98.51

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Dec 11, 2025, 6:50 AM EST

Rise & Shine Kids!

Good morning. Dougie's on the road today, so you wonderful kids are stuck with me. Up in the morning with (well actually many hours before) the rising sun, we're gonna run all day until the runnin's done. Highly motivated. Truly dedicated. Rough. Tough. Can't get enough. Better than yesterday. Even better tomorrow.

Now drop and give me what you've got. I know you've got something in that oversized tank and it ain't fear, it's fire. Let me see the fire in your eyes. Let me hear you roar. Nothing and no one can stand before us this day, for we are here to take, hold and defend. Hang on. I'm so darned motivated, I've got to pop out another fifty. I can smell victory from here.

Okay. I'm back. Oh yeah. Get some. Equity index futures are trading lower. Blame Oracle  (ORCL)  if you must. We have glory and righteousness on our side and now we have Jerome Powell too. Replace this guy? He's buying T-Bills for crying out loud. That's better than ice cream for breakfast. Should they buy T-Bills? We're mercenary in nature when it comes to the green stuff. 

Okay, go slam down some more coffee. I'll do the same and I'll meet you back here in a little bit. Don't forget (for the guys) to shave. We want to look sharp. When they say "who trampled you worthless pukes in the markets today?" We want "them" to say... "That guy!"

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Dec 11, 2025, 6:13 AM EST