After-Hours % Gainers

After-Hours % Losers

Closing Volume

- NYSE volume 14% below its one-month average

- NASDAQ volume 20% below its one-month average

- VIX index: up 1.50% to 16.91

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Berkshire has problems brewing after Buffett leaves, but losing stock picker Todd Combs isn’t one of them - MarketWatch

I have about a one-hour research call starting at 3 PM.

The panelists, guests and moderators on Fin TV are uber confident that the consumer will continue to spend.

The largest bank in the world has a different view:

In light of the heavy financial sector exposure to the ETF, I am adding to my  (JOET)  short now at $42.51.

I am also adding to my individual financial/bank shorts.

I just got very very lucky.

I shorted more JPMorgan  (JPM)  this morning at $317.28

I just covered my JPMorgan short at $306.62.

I know the bank is speaking at a Goldman Sachs conference now, so I presume it is something that was just mentioned:

Randy

JP Morgan Consumer And Community Banking CEO Marianne Lake Says U.S. Consumer Is Still Healthy; Consumer Is Being More Discerning; It Is True That Auto Subprime Auto Delinquencies Have Been High Through The Pandemic; Environment Is More Fragile; Auto Delinquencies Are Improving; Outlook For Charge Offs In Credit Cards And Other Loans Slightly Improving; Expects Investment Banking Revenue To Be Up Low-Single Digit Percentages In Q4; Expect Markets Revenue To Be Up Low-Teens Percentage In Q4

Stay tuned.

From December 5:

Adding to Financial Services Shorts

I am adding to two financial shorts:

* (JPM) $317.31

* (MS) $176.60

Position: Short JPM S MS S

By Doug Kass Dec 5, 2025 10:26 AM EST

Oaktree's Howard Marks' latest commentary. 

Is It a Bubble?

From Peter Boockvar:

Job openings little changed in October but hiring and quit rates are worth noting

Job openings in October at 7.67mm was little changed with the 7.66mm seen in September. The hiring rate remained subdued at just 3.2% which matches the lowest level since January 2011 not including Covid. As part of this, the number of layoffs touched its most since January 2023. Also of note, the quit rate slipped to 1.8% from 2%, and that is the lowest since January 2014, also not including Covid as less people are willing to jump ship to another job.

Sector wise that stood out, there was a 142k increase in job openings for retail to the most since April 2023 while they fell to the lowest since June 2021 in financial services. Other areas just bounced around over the past few months.

Bottom line, jobs are available but finding the right person remains tough as seen still with the NFIB small business survey where finding qualified labor is the biggest worry of small business and contributing to a slower hire rate, along with other reasons like due to cost cutting, etc… where we hear many stories of labor attrition where people that leave (for whatever reason) are not being replaced.

Job Openings

hiring rate

quit rate

From Bramo:

Dougie Kass

STAFF

25 minutes ago

Long  (PG)  $140

At $144.68 I moved to very large long  (PEP) .

I have converted my short index common to short Index calls. (Taking in premium!)

With S&P cash +13 handles I am shorting more index calls.

Do you believe in magic in a young girl's heart?

How the music can free her, whenever it starts

And it's magic, if the music is groovy

It makes you feel happy like an old-time movie

I'll tell you about the magic, and it'll free your soul

But it's like trying to tell a stranger 'bout rock and roll

- Lovin Spoonful, Do You Believe In Magic?

Home Depot lowers 2025-06 guidance. 

The Home Depot Provides a Strategic Update; Reaffirms Fiscal 2025 Guidance; Establishes a Preliminary Fiscal 2026 Outlook and a Market Recovery Case | The Home Depot

The shares were -3% in premarket trading.

Raise your hand if you believe in the consensus view that 2026 EPS will rise by +17%(year over year)?

* Nonetheless, I am using the market's stubborn firmness as an opportunity to expand the size of my short book...

Normally the conditions of rising global interest rates, a weak dispersion of S&P index sector strength, sour aggregate market breadth, an overbought S&P Short Range Oscillator, generally ebullient investor sentiment and a pattern of market instability when rates are cut by the Fed (when the S&P is close to an all-time high) would satisfy the bears and contribute to a trend towards weaker stock prices.

Rising Global Interest Rates

Poor S&P Sector Dispersion

Weak Market Breadth

Yesterday's foul breadth continued the pattern of the last several days.

The S&P Oscillator Signals Overbought

The S&P Short Range Oscillator stands at 3.65% (vs 4.6%). That's firmly in overbought territory.

 A Very Low Put/Call Ratio 

Fed Cuts Near an All-Time High in the Averages Augurs Poorly for Future Investment Returns

Bottom Line

But this is not our father's market!

Upside:

-XCUR +67% (presents Positive Topline Phase 2 Data for Burixafor in Multiple Myeloma at 2025 ASH Annual Meeting)

-ALEX +38% (to be taken private at $21.20/shr in $2.3B transaction)

-VOR +28% (JPMorgan Chase and Co Initiates VOR with Overweight, price target: $43)

-TROX +20% (receives coordinated, non-binding and conditional Letters of Support / Interest from Export Finance Australia and Export-Import Bank of the United States, respectively, for up to $600M in limited or non-recourse financing to support the development of Tronox's rare earth supply chain)

-MAMA +13% (earnings)

-STAA +13% (to be acquired by Alcon for $30.75/shr cash at valuation $1.52B)

-YOU +9.1% (secures contract with CMS; Integrates CLEAR1 identity platform on Medicare.gov in early 2026)

-ARES +7.7% (to replace K in the S&P 500 Index, effective Dec 11th)

-CNM +6.2% (earnings, guidance)

-ALT +4.5% (momentum)

-CVS +2.9% (raises FY25 guidance, guides initial FY26)

-CWAN +2.2% (Activist Starboard said to accumulate 5% stake)

Downside:

-TWG -70% (profit taking)

-CAL -19% (earnings, guidance)

-ALM -17% (prices upsized 18M shares at $6.25/shr)

-GPRK -12% (Parex Resources halts negotiations regarding proposed acquisition)

-SLM -12% (weakness following Investor Day event)

-TOL -6.0% (earnings, guidance)

-OOMA -5.8% (earnings, guidance)

-GPK -5.5% (implements cost, production optimization initiatives; cuts FY25 EPS guidance)

-OLLI -5.0% (earnings, guidance)

-KYMR -3.9% (files to sell $500M in common shares)

-HD -2.6% (affirms FY25 outlook; guides initial FY26)

-SAIL -2.3% (earnings, guidance)

-ARQQ -2.1% (earnings)

-SGU -2.1% (earnings)

From Peter Boockvar:

If this was the only data point they looked at, they'd be hiking tomorrow not cutting

The November NFIB Small Business Optimism index rose to 99 from 98.2 in October, vs 98.8 in September and 100.8 in August. The thing that sticks out like a sore thumb just one day before Jay Powell & Co will cut interest rates was the 13 pt spike in ‘Higher Selling Prices’ to 34%, the highest since March 2023 and the biggest one month point increase since June 1978. Yes, 1978, though is still well off its 2022 highs of in the 60s. By the way, my Bloomberg Terminal told me 1978 but NFIB said in their release it’s the biggest point gain “in the survey’s history” maybe looking at the percentage gain.

Elsewhere and positively and also very noteworthy the day before an expected rate cut, Plans to Hire rose 4 pts to 19%, matching the most since October 2022. Positions Not Able to Fill rose 1 pt to 33% and in line with the 6 month average. Current Compensation was unchanged but Compensation Plans jumped 5 pts to 24%, the highest since one year ago.

Capital spending plans fell 3 pts but after rising by 2 pts last month. Plans to Increase Inventory stayed negative at -1. Those that Expect a Better Economy fell 5 pts to 15%, matching the weakest since October 2024. But, those that Expect Better Sales jumped by 9 pts and I can’t square these two. Good Time to Expand held at 13%.

After softening by 9 pts in October, Positive Earnings Trends rose 2 pts to a still weak -23%. To this, the NFIB said “Among owners reporting lower profits, 27% blamed weaker sales, 16% cited the rise in the cost of materials, and 12% cited labor costs.” The average cost of capital did fall to 7.9% on a loan from 8.7% in October and that is the lowest since May 2023.

The Quality of Labor still remains the biggest business problem at 21% but down 6 pts and the Inflation worry rose 3 pts to 15%.

Bottom line, if this survey was the only data point the Fed looked at tomorrow, obviously though viewed as ‘soft data’ since it’s just a read on sentiment, they would be hiking rates instead of cutting with the rise in hiring plans, gain in compensation plans and big jump in selling prices.

NFIB

Higher Selling Prices

Plan to Hire

Expect Better Economy

Speaking of another central bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia, they held rates unchanged as expected at 3.6% and explicitly told us that they are done cutting and might even hike rates next year. Governor Bullock said “I don’t think there are interest rate cuts on the horizon for the foreseeable future. The question is, is it just an extended hold for here or is it the possibility of a rate rise. I couldn’t put a probability on those but I think they’re the two things that the board will be looking closely at coming into the new year.”

The 2 yr Aussie yield jumped 10 bps to 4.07% in response to a one year high. The 10 yr yield was up 5.5 bps to 4.76%. The Aussie$ is higher while the ASX fell .5%. For perspective, the October trimmed mean CPI in Australia was up 3.3% with a headline gain of 3.8% so the RBA already has its overnight rate at about zero in real terms and why they are done cutting.

While it only matters for the following 3 FOMC meetings after tomorrow until he hits the links, I wouldn’t be surprised to hear Jay Powell tell us he’s done cutting too UNLESS inflation further decelerated and/or the unemployment rose further which of course is possible but we’ll at least have that guidepost.

To the very interest rate sensitive housing market in the US, this was from Toll Brothers which is trading down pre-market due to a slippage in gross margin and number of expected closings missed estimates:

“Our fourth quarter and full year results demonstrate that our luxury business is differentiated, as we serve a more affluent customer who is less impacted by affordability pressures.”

That said, “Given soft demand across many markets, we remain focused on running our business in a disciplined manner and consistent with our long-term strategic objective of maximizing returns for stockholders.”

We await the earnings call.

In yesterday’s NY Fed’s Consumer Expectations Survey, the one year inflation guess held at 3.2% and for the time frame past this, was unchanged at 3%. The labor market components as well as income both improved a touch but delinquency expectations rose. Spending expectations also rose slightly.

But, the NY Fed finished with this: “Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago deteriorated notably with a larger share of respondents reporting that their households were worse off compared to a year ago, and a smaller share reporting they were better off. Expectations about year-ahead financial situations also deteriorated slightly with a smaller share of respondents reporting that their households are expecting to be better off a year from now.”

PepsiCo price target raised to $172 from $161 at Piper Sandler Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on PepsiCo to $172 from $161 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company gave preliminary 2026 guidance that is above its operating expectations. Its initial organic revenue growth outlook of 2%-4% is above Piper's 2.1% estimate, and its margin expansion outlook is also above its 85bps estimate, with the firm leaving both unchanged for now.

PepsiCo says 'not business as usual here' Says going public with goals now "gives us a head start on the year," "makes us accountable." Comments taken from PepsiCo's status update conference call.

Treasury Auctions

11 a.m.: Treasury Announces a 4 and 8 Week Bill Auction;

11:30 a.m.: Treasury host a $75 6-Week Bill Auction;

1:00 p.m.: Treasury hosts a $39B 10-Year Note Auction;

Economic Calendar

It appears that Jensen Huang and Nvidia  (NVDA)  got what they wanted — the green light to start selling chips to China again.

Many of the restrictions the Biden administration put in place have been removed. It is quite interesting that the same administration that has been telling us that AI is the future of the world and we need to bet our whole economy on it, while at the same time telling us China is the great enemy in this regard, are the guys undoing the restrictions.

Make it make sense!!!?!?!??!? This of course was perceived as bullish for the stock (I shorted stock over $190 last evening).

Is it bullish? If things were really going gangbusters for Nvidia and demand was up and to the right and they had no new emerging competition from Google TPUs and others — would they need to be going to Washington D.C. to beg for this? 

Here he is, Jensen Huang, at the White House last week going to beg. At least, finally for once he had a proper suit on and not the annoying leather jacket. Five days later, sales to China commence again:

https://www.gettyimages.no/detail/news-photo/nvidia-ceo-and-co-founder-jensen-huang-walks-towards-the-news-photo/2249114528#

Here is my guess. Huang is no dummy. He knows this White House (more than most) and that it is obsessed with the stock market (although sadly they all are these days; you can thank Greenspan for that one with the whole wealth effect thing). I strongly suspect Huang told them something akin to “the whole stock market is an AI trade, and I am the linchpin of the AI trade, so you better let me find the revenue somewhere.”

So there you go. This is why things happen the way they do. This is how you square the circle with regard to how an administration that is telling us China is the AI enemy (their view not mine as I don’t think Generative AI works well and is a giant waste of money in its current incarnation), is willing to sell the arms to the enemy. They are obsessed with the stock market over the short term — but not what policy makes sense over the medium to longer term.

Perhaps all the support for AI is not so much about AI, and the future, and the security of the country, as it is about keeping the stock market propped up over the short term.

From my perch, Jensen Huang just played Trump and the administration like a fiddle.

Suckers.

He will now go find a giant warehouse in China to sell parts into for a quarter or two is my guess.

But at the end of the day, economic gravity will always win. We will all lose the more the government (and Nvidia, David Sacks, et al) tries to fight it. 

Post Script: Gary Marcus (Is The White House's A Policy Coherent?)

Bonus — Here are some great links:

High Beta Is Bullying Low Volatility

Consumer Stocks v Consumer Sentiment

Risk-On Just Took the Wheel

The Tide Is Turning

AI Stocks Won't Be The Only Winner in 2026

* For what it's worth, global interest rates are rising...

There's something happening here

What it is ain't exactly clear

There's a man with a gun over there

A-telling me I got to beware

I think it's time we stop

Children, what's that sound?

Everybody look what's going down

- Buffalo Springfield, For What It's Worth

That's not right.

Something's wrong.

Where's Wilson?

I gotta get Wilson and tell him to sell

Orange Juice Trade - Trading Places

* The Nasdaq 100 has had just five down years since 1995...

According to the Financial Times, this just in: 

NVDA (Nvidia) – according to an FT report at ~5:40amET, China is likely to impose limits on H200 purchases, requiring buyers to go through an approval process outlining why they require the chip as Beijing pushes forward with plans to encourage the use of domestic technology. Our view on the H200 approval is that while it’s not negative, it’s also far from being a massive positive for Nvidia for the following reasons: 1) this issue is hardly the big overhang on AI stocks lately (far more important has been the rise of Gemini/TPU and continued questions about cash-burning startups being able to fulfill their financial commitments over the coming years), 2) just because Nvidia’s revenue into China is nearly $0, this doesn’t mean the company still isn’t selling its chips to Chinese companies (as discussed here), and 3) the H200 is far inferior to Blackwell (and Rubin) and so Chinese buyers might remain reluctant to buy it.

- Financial Times, Nvidia: China To Impose Restrictions on H200 Purchases

* Tryin' to make some front page drive-in news...

I was a little too tall, could've used a few pounds

Tight pants, points, hardly renowned

She was a black haired beauty with big dark eyes

And points all her own, sitting way up high

Way up firm and high

Out past the cornfields where the woods got heavy

Out in the back seat of my '60 Chevy

Workin' on mysteries without any clues

Workin' on our night moves

Tryin' to make some front page drive-in news

Workin' on our night moves

In the summertime, mmm

In the sweet summertime

- Bob Seger, Night Moves

I re-shorted index common and more Nvidia  (NVDA)  after the market closed on Monday — after futures climbed in connection with the Nvidia news.

From after the close:

Shorting Indexes on Nvidia Euphoria

I am back shorting index common on the heels of the Nvidia (NVDA) euphoria:

* (SPY) $684.50

* (QQQ) $625.04

Position: Short SPY common (VS), QQQ common (VS)

By Doug Kass Dec 8, 2025 5:21 PM EST

Shorting More Nvidia

Nvidia (NVDA) is flying after the close on this news:

I am shorting more (NVDA) at $190.55.

Position: Short NVDA (S)

By Doug Kass Dec 8, 2025 5:10 PM EST