Alright folks, that will do it for me today.

Here’s wishing each and every one of you successful trading and investing ahead, and a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday with family, friends, and loved ones.

See ya soon, and don’t skimp on the cranberry sauce!

We made no additions to the Pro Portfolio today, keeping to the sidelines for a few reasons.

First, as we explained in my opening comments, we’d like to see the S&P 500 successfully retest key support levels. That means keeping a close watch on the index against its 100-day moving average at 6,552.39 and its 50-day moving average at 6713.18 over the next few days.

Second, last week we put our EPS Diplomats model to work, picked up more shares of Costco  (COST)  near $882 and on Thursday added to Axon  (AXON) , Meta  (META)  and ServiceNow  (NOW) . You can find those trade prices and all the others over at the Pro Portfolio’s Holdings page.

No wonder there was a ringing in my ear on the subject of a potential December rate cut by the Fed.

Minutes ago it was reported that San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly supports lowering interest rates at the central bank's meeting next month because she sees a sudden deterioration in the job market as both more likely and harder to manage than an inflation flare-up.

"On the labor market, I don't feel as confident we can get ahead of it. It's vulnerable enough now that the risk is it'll have a nonlinear change”

That quote is from The Wall Street Journal that published Daly’s conversation with reporter Nick Timiraos.

We’ve seen quite the snapback in December rate-cut expectations following Fed head comments on Friday, but I continue to think it will be the post-Thanksgiving data that will determine whether we get a rate cut.

As I shared on the Schwab Network this morning, we’re not getting the October and November Employment data or CPI data until AFTER the Fed’s policy decision. That means the next set of data points that will determine the Fed’s decision are:

November 26 – Fed Beige Book

December 1 – ISM November Manufacturing PMI

December 3 – ADP November Employment Change Report, ISM November Services PMI

December 5 – September PCE Price Index (arguably stale as I alluded to earlier)

December 8 – November Consumer Inflation Expectations

December 9 – NFIB Business Optimism Index for November, October JOLTs report

The thought is that if inflation-facing data is unchanged compared to the last few months but the job creation picture softens considerably, the Fed could deliver a hawkish December cut.

While the market is moving higher today, we should expect that it could return to the pattern of trading based on the latest data point next week. In other words, we could see volatility creep back into the market.

This is all a reason to revisit those shopping lists, and we’re not talking about the ones for Thanksgiving or Black Friday-Cyber Monday holiday shopping. 

The U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis revised its economic-data release schedule after the recent government shutdown.

The BEA cancelled the advanced estimate for Q3 2025 gross domestic product. The data were initially set to be released on October 30.

The September Personal Income and Outlays report, which includes personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation indexes closely tracked by the Fed, was rescheduled to Dec. 5 at 10:00 AM ET.

Granted, the September PCE is a bit stale at this point but at least it’s coming out BEFORE the Fed’s policy meeting, unlike the October and November Employment Data.

Just in time for the holiday shopping season a potential boon for those looking to stick to a budget, OpenAI unveiled a free artificial intelligence-powered shopping research tool that it says can generate a personalized buyer’s guide for ChatGPT users during the holiday season.

Per reports, folks can use a dedicated “shopping research” button in the chat interface and describe what they’re looking for using instructions like “find a small couch for a studio apartment” or “I need a gift for my 4-year-old niece who loves art.”

I see it as OpenAI looking to expand its funnel of potential converts to a subscription.

MSNow reports the White House will delay a healthcare proposal after significant congressional backlash. 

Trump had planned to make an announcement as early as today proposing a framework to address healthcare costs, which included an extension of Obamacare subsides.

Buyers:

STAA: 10% owner bought 1.5 million (mln) shares between $26.42-$27.86 worth approx. $41.1 mln.

BFLY: Director bought 2.8 mln shares between $2.35-$2.58 worth approx. $6.8 mln.

RUM 10% owner bought 1,063,670 shares between $5.38-$5.46 worth approx. $5.8 mln.

ANNX Director bought 822,613 shares between $4.28-$4.48 worth approx. $3.6 mln.

BEN 10% owner bought 50K shares at $21.20 worth approx. $1.1 mln.

DGICA 10% owner bought 59,404 shares between $17.86-$19.49 worth approx. $1.1 mln.

OPK CEO bought 580K shares between $1.30-$1.33 worth approx. $768K.

OESX CEO bought 21,166 shares at $14.17 worth approx. $300K.

ULBI Director bought 53,900 shares at $4.97 worth approx. $268K.

Sellers:

ROIV Directors sold 3.9 mln shares at $20.23 worth approx. $78.91 mln.

MLYS Director sold 1 mln shares at $43.35 worth approx. $43.35 mln.

PGEN Director sold 2,966,293 shares between $3.83--$4.47 worth approx. $12.29 mln.

GOOG/L CEO sold 32,500 shares at $296.64 worth approx. $9.6 mln.

ST Director sold 268,310 shares between $28.75--$29.53 worth approx. $7.75 mln.

NTRA executives sold 26,780 shares between $215--$230.01 worth approx. $5.98 mln.

CATY Executive Chairman sold 25,000 shares between $45.75--$47.85 worth approx. $1.17 mln.

FLEX Director sold 20,000 shares at $54.52 worth approx. $1.09 mln.

AMAT SVP/CLO sold 4,000 shares at $234.08 worth approx. $936K.

AORT SVP sold 15,276 shares at $44.18 worth approx. $675K.

KN CFO sold 30,000 shares at $21.07 worth approx. $632K.

VMC SVP sold 2,000 shares at $288.55 worth approx. $577K.

UNM CFO sold 7,500 shares at $76.38 worth approx. $573K.

In a Truth Social post, President Trump said his call with China's Xi was "very good," accepts April visit to Beijing amid ongoing trade and security talks.

Those who have read me on the Diary before know I share the reading I do as I fuel up for the second part of the trading day. Here we go:

Americans Are Microdosing Obesity Drugs, Driven by 'Thin Is In' Marketing Blitz

Flood of AI Bonds Adds to Pressure on Markets

DOGE days are over as Trump disbands Elon Musk’s team of federal cost-cutters

Pinterest is leaning hard into AI. The strategy is alienating its most dedicated users

Why Europe and the U.S. Are Still Haggling on Trade

And for those that may have missed it from earlier today:

Charting the S&P: Tread With Caution as Bears Come Out

With about four hours to go until we ring today’s closing bell, it seems we are already seeing lower-than-usual volumes.

Perhaps it’s due to many taking the full week off for the Thanksgiving holiday or some sitting on the sidelines until we see a re-test of recent key levels for the S&P 500.

Odds are those volumes are only going to slow further, especially as we creep into afternoon trading on Wednesday. 

Earlier this morning we discussed Google’s  (GOOGL) NATO win and now we see Amazon  (AMZN)  is targeting U.S. government agencies.

Amazon announced an investment of up to $50 billion to expand AI and supercomputing capabilities for AWS U.S. government customers. This investment, set to break ground in 2026, will add nearly 1.3 gigawatts of AI and supercomputing capacity across AWS Top Secret, AWS Secret, and AWS GovCloud Regions “by building data centers with advanced compute and networking technologies.”

This is good for AI chip companies and networking ones, such as Nvidia  (NVDA) , Marvell  (MRVL)  and Arista Networks  (ANET) , which we have in the Pro Portfolio.

This is going to re-energize power concerns, and could do the same for AI bubble talk even as that basket of stocks is rebounding further today.

When I put together the Pro Portfolio’s Sunday Soup column, one of the items I look forward to sharing is the latest from the folks over at the Acquired podcast. If you haven’t been listening to the great work Ben and David do with these deep, deep dives, you’re really missing out.

Their latest is a four-hour (yes, four hour!) examination on Coca-Cola  (KO)  so maybe save it for later this week as you come down from all that turkey and pie.

You can view this episode here.

And FWIW I listened to their episode on Rolex driving from DC to Connecticut in one fell swoop.

Wolfe Research upgraded Morgan Stanley  (MS)  to "Outperform" with a $198 target from Peer Perform sharing its view Wall Street isn't fully appreciating the bank's Institutional Securities market share gains.

I get that as most, including us over at the Pro Portfolio, tend to focus on the operating leverage associated with investment banking activity.

We’ve upped our MS target multiple times over the last year and based on that activity we’ll review our $170 target.

Breaking

Barrick Mining (B)  enters into an agreement, which puts an end to all of its disputes with the Government of the Republic of Mali regarding the Loulo and Gounkoto mines.

As a result of the settlement, Barrick's subsidiaries will withdraw the arbitration claims currently pending before the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes.

Chinese state news agency Xinhua is reporting that in a phone conversation between Chinese Pres. Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump, Xi told Trump that the return of Taiwan to China is a key part of the post-World War II international order.

TBD how this might factor into ongoing U.S.-China trade conversations ... and how truthful the report itself is.

We’ve been saying Amazon  (AMZN)  is well positioned this holiday shopping season, as consumers continue to look for deals, sales, and the like. Let’s remember, too, Amazon has been focused on increasing its delivery network to further collapse shipment-delivery times.

But it’s not just us… JPMorgan is also bullish on AMZN shares.

JPMorgan is projecting U.S. e-commerce holiday season sales growth of 7%, which would be slower than last year's 9% year-over-year U.S. e-commerce sales growth in Q4, but "solid" and suggesting continued strong online share gains.

Heading into Thanksgiving and Cyber 5 weekend, Amazon remains on JPM’s Best Idea list with an Overweight rating and $305 price target.

Upgrades

Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $20

Baidu (BIDU) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $188

Barrick Mining (B) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities, tgt $48

Booking Holdings (BKNG) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities, tgt $6,000

Carvana (CVNA) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush, tgt $400

Cipher Mining (CIFR) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $18

CleanSpark (CLSK) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $14

Cummins (CMI) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist, tgt $628

Eversource Energy (ES) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Janney

Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC, tgt $228

Inspire Medical Systems (INSP) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel

International Paper (IP) upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at BNP Paribas Exane, tgt $44

Magnera Corporation (MAGN) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $16

Merck (MRK) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $125

MP Materials (MP) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital, tgt $75

RB Global (RBA) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at National Bank, tgt $124

Tractor Supply (TSCO) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies, tgt $64

Vornado (VNO) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan, tgt $41

Downgrades

Argenx (ARGX) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research

BASF (BASFY) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank

Brandywine Realty (BDN) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan

JFrog (FROG) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS, tgt $65

Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS, tgt $188

Kimbell Royalty Partners (KRP) downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc

PureCycle Technologies (PCT) downgraded to Hold from Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $9

QuantumScape (QS) downgraded to In Line from Outperform at Evercore ISI, tgt $12

Others

Airbnb (ABNB) initiated with a Neutral at BNP Paribas Exane

Adagene (ADAG) initiated with a Buy at Guggenheim, tgt $9

Amazon (AMZN) initiated with an Outperform at BNP Paribas Exane

Cadence Design (CDNS) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup, tgt $385

Clean Harbors (CLH) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman, tgt $228

eBay (EBAY) initiated with a Neutral at BNP Paribas Exane

Enlight Renewable Energy (ENLT) initiated with a Buy at UBS, tgt $47

Etsy (ETSY) initiated with a Neutral at BNP Paribas Exane

Expedia (EXPE) initiated with a Neutral at BNP Paribas Exane

GFL Environmental (GFL) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman, tgt $50

Granite Construction (GVA) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman, tgt $109

Hyatt Hotels (H) initiated with an Overweight at JPMorgan, tgt $178

Jacobs Engineering (J) initiated with a Buy at Goldman, tgt $158

MeiraGTx (MGTX) initiated with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright, tgt $20

Marvell (MRVL) price target raised to $110 at UBS

Meta Platforms (META) initiated with an Outperform at BNP Paribas Exane, tgt $800

Navan (NAVN) initiated with an Outperform at Mizuho, tgt $25

Navan (NAVN) initiated with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $19

Navan (NAVN) initiated with a Buy at Needham, tgt $25

Navan (NAVN) initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer, tgt $25

Navan (NAVN) initiated with a Buy at Goldman, tgt $29

Navan (NAVN) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup, tgt $26

Navan (NAVN) initiated with an Outperform at Citizens JMP, tgt $25

Navan (NAVN) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies, tgt $25

Passage Bio (PASG) initiated with a Buy at Lucid Capital, tgt $68

Primoris Services (PRIM) initiated with a Sell at Goldman, tgt $117

Qnity Electronics (Q) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank, tgt $92

Regeneron Pharma (REGN) initiated with a Buy at HSBC, tgt $890

Republic Services (RSG) initiated with a Buy at Goldman, tgt $255

Shopify (SHOP) initiated with a Neutral at BNP Paribas Exane

Silgan Holdings (SLGN) initiated with a Neutral at UBS, tgt $42

Synopsys (SNPS) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup, tgt $580

Stellantis (STLA) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman, tgt $10

T1 Energy (TE) initiated with a Buy at Roth Capital, tgt $7

Voyager Technologies (VOYG) reinstated with an Overweight at JPMorgan, tgt $43

Volkswagen (VWAGY) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman

Waste Connections (WCN) initiated with a Buy at Goldman, tgt $202

Waste Management (WM) initiated with a Buy at Goldman, tgt $256

Position: The Pro Portfolio is long AMZN, META, MRVL, WM shares

Alphabet  (GOOGL)  has signed a multi-year, multi-million-dollar cloud deal with the NATO Communication and Information Agency to boost the organization's digital modernization.

Another positive development for the company following the surprise (?) hit of its Gemini 3 model.

It also follows comments over the weekend from OpenAI’s Sam Altman that Google’s AI progress has created “temporary economic headwinds”.

A few quarters ago when there was much concern over Google’s AI initiatives, I said that the company’s position in search, shopping and with YouTube, and what that meant for training its models meant, not counting it out just yet. Perhaps I was onto something…

It’s being reported this morning that Lenovo Group Ltd. is stockpiling memory and other critical components “to navigate a supply crunch brought on by the boom in artificial intelligence.”

The same reports indicate the company is “holding on to component inventories that are roughly 50% higher than usual” per comments from CFO Winston Cheng.

Per Cheng, the frenzy to build and fill AI data centers with advanced hardware is raising prices for producers of consumer electronics.

Green Dot Corp  (GDOT)  agreed to be acquired by Smith Ventures and CommerceOne Financial, with Smith Ventures set to buy Green Dot’s non-bank fintech assets and operations from CommerceOne for $690 million in cash.

Former Green Dot shareholders will own approximately 72% of the new publicly traded bank holding company, and former CommerceOne shareholders will own approximately 28% of the company.

If you are a user of Apple’s  (AAPL)  Apple Cash then you may be a tad more familiar with Green Dot than others out there.

Tractor Supply  (TSCO)  shares are catching some lift in pre-market trading this morning following an upgrade by Jefferies to a Buy rating from Hold.

The argument is that “in a backdrop plagued by ongoing consumer uncertainty, the firm sees Tractor Supply stock providing a nice hedge for investors due to the resilience of its customer demographic and momentum behind early-stage, needle-moving growth initiatives.”

Sounds kinda… generic at least to me.

Granted, Tractor’s September quarter comp sales rose 3.9%, putting them ahead Target  (TGT)  and many others.

We’ll stick with TJX and Costco  (COST) that delivered far stronger quarterly comp sales as we head deeper into the holiday shopping season.

Reading the following comments from Tesla  (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk this morning:

"Most people don't know that Tesla has had an advanced AI chip and board engineering team for many years. That team has already designed and deployed several million AI chips in our cars and data centers. These chips are what enable Tesla to be the leader in real-world AI. The current version in cars is AI4, we are close to taping out AI5 and are starting work on AI6. Our goal is to bring a new AI chip design to volume production every 12 months.”

Every 12 months…. While that keeps pace with others like Nvidia  (NVDA) , I’m wondering about, to the extent that becomes mainstream knowledge, how it could impact Tesla unit volumes?

Could it become like the Apple  (AAPL)  iPhone that volumes become more seasonal?

Hmmm....

Shares of Novo Nordisk  (NVO)  are falling premarket trading trading after the company said its pill version of Ozempic (semaglutide) did not slow the progression of Alzheimer’s disease in two large studies that had aimed to explore a potential new use for its blockbuster obesity drug.

The reaction to Nvidia's  (NVDA)  very strong earnings report shook up the market last week, and now several new trends and themes are driving the action.

The first significant shift is in the AI sector. There are growing concerns about valuation and accounting, but the impact is uneven. Infrastructure providers such as semiconductors and data centers are being hit, while hyperscalers are seeing rotational action. Meanwhile, Alphabet  (GOOGL)  has suddenly emerged as a major winner after rave reviews of its Gemini AI, developed with its own chips rather than Nvidia's.

The reassessment of valuations among AI infrastructure, hyperscalers, and software suppliers will continue this week. Many pundits are still focused on a battle over valuation, when the primary concern should be shifting leadership and themes. Google is now the leader in the sector and will determine how sentiment develops.

The second major shift is growing hope of a Fed interest rate cut at its next meeting in December. The odds of a rate cut have jumped to 75% from 42% a week ago. Incoming retail spending, PCE inflation, and durable goods data will influence the odds. There is a "bad news is good news" dynamic at work, which will help support the market.

A third issue with market impact is continued pressure on Bitcoin  (IBIT)  and the broader cryptocurrency market. There was some minor bounce over the weekend, but concerns that Strategy  (MSTR)  may be excluded from potential index entries are raising the risk of further liquidations. There are a few signs of stabilization in the group so far.

The big question is whether some of the cryptocurrency speculation might shift to other areas of the market, such as small-caps, biotechnology, and groups with better relative strength. Thanksgiving week is known for speculative trading, so we have good conditions for pockets of crazy action.

A fourth issue this week is that a large percentage of stocks have recently been technically damaged. It has been hidden to a great extent by the indexes, but there are indications that bottom-fishing traders are sifting through the wreckage, looking for names that have been unfairly punished as ETF selling has weighed on certain groups of stocks. I expect to see more focus on stock-picking of names with strong fundamentals this week.

We have some typical Monday morning strength in the early going, but buyers are still gun-shy after the poor action last week.

At the time of publication, Rev Shark was long NVDA and GOOGL.

Happy holiday week folks, and let’s remember trading volumes are going to thin out as we move through the week.

Even so, as we discussed in the Pro Portfolio’s Weekly Roundup on Friday, Tuesday and Wednesday will be a tad busy, especially on the earnings front:

Tuesday

· Open: Abercrombie & Fitch  (ANF) , Alibaba  (BABA) , Best Buy  (BBY) , Burlington Stores  (BURL) , Dick’s Sporting Goods  (DKS) , JM Smucker  (SJM) , Kohl’s  (KSS) , and ADP’s weekly Employment Change Report

· Close: Dell  (DELL) , HP  (HPQ) , NetApp  (NTAP) , Urban Outfitters  (URBN) , Workday  (WDAY) , Zscaler  (ZS)

Wednesday

· MBA Mortgage Applications Index – Weekly (7:00 a.m. ET)

· Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims – Weekly (8:30 a.m. ET)

· Durable Orders – October (8:30 a.m. ET)

· GDP (2nd estimate) – Q3 2025 (8:30 a.m. ET)

· Personal Income & Spending, PCE Price Index – October (10 a.m. ET)

· New Home Sales – October (10:00 a.m. ET)

· EIA Crude Oil Inventories – Weekly (10:30 a.m. ET)

At the same time, with email inboxes and social media combining to form a barrage of holiday shopping deals, folks could be a wee bit distracted.

Not a good combo especially with thin trading volumes.

We’ll want to keep an eye on the technical set up with the S&P 500 as we navigate the week and get ready for all that November data next week. Depending on what it shows it could either re-affirm renewed December rate cut expectations or…