That’s it for me today, folks. Enjoy yourselves over the weekend, and if you’re looking for me next week, you can find me manning the Portfolio.

Versace out!

Folks, it sure looks like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have not only recovered but rebounded from their moves earlier today below their respective 50-day moving averages. Good to see, but let’s remember that follow through is key and that means we’ll want to see them remain above those levels early next week.

It also means we’ll want to continue to watch the market’s reaction to next week’s earnings reports and company comments at this next wave of investor conferences. If you perused the earnings report list we shared earlier, than you know we’ll get a solid picture on consumer spending and holiday shopping expectations.

We also have quarterly results from Nvidia (NVDA) , which accounts for more than 7% of the S&P 500 and about 14% of the Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) . This means the market’s reaction to those results, the outlook painted by CEO Jensen Huang and how that all stacks up against those darn “whisper numbers” will all be part of that follow through.

As we wait to see what comes next, a little weekend activity of refreshing your shopping lists isn’t the worst idea. We’ll be sharing some of the Portfolio’s in the Weekly Roundup coming out later today.

The BLS announced it will release the September jobs report on Thursday, November 20.

You’ve been warned.

And yeah, it’s more than a bit rearview mirror-ish, so I’ll focus more on the data we get from ADP and S&P Global next week. 

We often hear about market breadth, and given what’s transpired this week let’s check in with TheStreet Pro’s Bob Lang on the topic…

Breadth oscillators are a great way for us to measure the health of the market. Without consideration for price and volume, the up/down issues tell us just how strong the commitment investors/traders have at any point in time. They tell us the direction of the market as well, and when we see clusters or accumulations on one side or the other (adding or subtracting), we can make a general assessment of the stock market.

Now, we should always know the most important of them all is price, and the breadth oscillators will often agree with the price action. That is a bold and confident combination, but when they diverge then something is awry.

We recently had new highs hit on the S&P 500 but failed to see a new high on breadth indicators; in fact, the breadth was poor as the indices rallied. That eventually mattered, as we felt an ‘earthquake’ the last couple of weeks shake up the markets. See the oscillators above, currently still in bearish territory, and even today breadth is negative after the market has rallied off the lows.

Another bearish divergence. We’ll see when it eventually matters.

Lang out.

While some of you are eyeing the clock, getting ready for the trading day to end, and the weekend to begin, let’s take a quick peek at which companies are reporting next week:

Monday, November 17

Before the market open

J&J Snack Foods (JJSF)

JinkoSolar (JKS)

Tuesday, November 18

Before the market open

Aecom Tech (ACM)

Baidu (BIDU)

Energizer (ENR)

Home Depot (HD)

James Hardie (JHX)

Klarna Group plc (KLAR)

Medtronic (MDT)

Weibo (WB)

We all know it’s been a bit of a zany week filled with moving pieces, fresh conjectures and a stock market that, based on the S&P 500, still looks to put in a move higher.

Yet, one of the things I find myself still scratching my head on?

Kim Kardashian’s Skims, which has grown past shapewear and underwear, and could be a saving grace for Nike  (NKE) , is now worth $5 billion.

It doesn’t hurt that it’s going to do $1 billion in sales this year.

Makes you wonder if Hanesbrands (HBI)  should pick up a celebrity endorser.

I hear Steph Curry has been cut loose from Under Armour  (UAA) . 

When I was walking one of my dogs last night, I noticed that one of my neighbors already has a Christmas wreath up on their front door and a few others scattered around the front of their house.

Hmmmm, I thought to myself… “Seems a bit early.”

But if we are to go by Walmart  (WMT) , it would seem I may need to re-think things.

Why, you ask?

Because the first part of Walmart's Black Friday sale has begun online for all shoppers.

Here’s a list of the company’s “Black Friday” schedule:

Friday 11/14: First event begins online and in retail stores

Monday 11/24: Second event begins online at 7 p.m. Eastern Time for Walmart+ members

Tuesday 11/25: Second event opens for all shoppers

Friday 11/28: Black Friday begins in stores at 6 a.m. local time

Monday 12/1: Cyber Monday begins

I suspect we’ll be hearing more about this when Walmart reports next week. 

Per Bloomberg, New York Governor Kathy Hochul is considering raising corporate taxes as part of broader efforts to close a potential budget shortfall and help fund some of Zohran Mamdani’s agenda as New York City mayor.

Folks who have come to know me here, know that I tend not to wade into politics but do think about the implications of policy.

With New York City projecting a $4.2 billion budget gap for fiscal 2027 before Mamdani gets into office, the odds of a tax increase are, sad to say, pretty good.

What this means for companies like Goldman Sachs  (GS) , JPMorgan Chase  (JPM) , and others that count New York City as their home…

But let’s remember, too, the city will want to keep those jobs and corresponding spending and taxes, which suggests deals are likely to be struck to keep those and others like them in the Big Apple.

We’ll see how it all plays out, but odds are it will be politics as usual.

According to the Wall Street Journal (via The Wrap), Warner Bros. Discovery  (WBD)  is officially going up for auction. 

Paramount (PSKY) , Netflix  (NFLX)  and Comcast  (CMCSA)  are preparing to submit a first-round of non-binding bids for the company prior to a November 20 deadline. 

As previously reported, WBD expects to reach a decision on its fate by mid-to-late December.

Folks, I’m stepping away for a quick bite to refuel for the last few hours of the trading day.

Here are some of the articles I’ll be reading as I do that:

Inside the Frantic Push to Reverse Verizon’s Decline

A battle is brewing over the future of online shopping

How Apollo, Soros and others spotted red flags at First Brands

Howard Lutnick’s Sons Score Record Year as Cantor Denies Trump Conflicts

And because we all need some lighthearted entertainment now and again:

‘The Running Man’ Review: Glen Powell Plays for His Life

Back with you before you know it. 

A Gen AI question for the board:

What percentage of holiday travelers plan to use generative AI to help in planning their trip, according to Deloitte?

A) 24%

B) 36%

C) 48%

D) 60%

We’ll share the answer later this afternoon.

NYC Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani calls for boycott of Starbucks  (SBUX)  as workers strike.

President Trump says he will ask DOJ to investigate JPMorgan's  (JPM)  alleged connections with Jeffrey Epstein.

Kansas City Fed Pres. Jeff Schmid, a 2025 voter, is leaning against rate cut in December as he sees inflation is too high and the economy is “showing momentum.”

Commerce Department says Personal Consumption Expenditure price data will be released on Nov. 26.

And as I mentioned before, the Flash November PMI from S&P Global is out Nov. 21

Personally, I am a fan of Cava  (CAVA)  as a place to eat, but as an investor that slowing comp sales growth is hard to miss at a time when we continue to hear more about the bifurcated consumer and Visa's  (V)  latest U.S. Spending Momentum Index showing restaurant spending continued to decline in October. 

 4Q 2024: 21.2% 

 Q1 2025: 10.8% 

 Q2 2025: 2.1% 

 Q3 2025: 1.9% 

But the kicker is Cava is now offering…. merch. Not that I wouldn’t wish a “Feta” hat on anyone, but it feels like a jump the shark moment when Cava emails its customer list about this new offering.

Then again, maybe it’s just me.  

From Bloomberg: 

Tesla Inc.  (TSLA)  is developing support for Apple Inc.’s  (AAPL) CarPlay system in its vehicles, according to people with knowledge of the matter, working to add one of the most highly requested features by customers.

Is that what is holding people back from buying a Tesla?

Mmmmmmm….

Mizuho lowered the firm's price target on Applied Materials  (AMAT)  to $205 from $215 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Craig-Hallum downgraded Applied Materials to Hold from Buy with a $190 price target. The firm notes management expects 2026 to be a similar business environment to last year. Goldman Sachs expects AMAT stock to be range bound following a stronger quarter with guidance that was in line with Wall Street.

JD.com  (JD)  price target lowered to $38 from $42 at Benchmark.

Kilroy Realty (KRC) price target lowered to $46 from $47 at Evercore ISI.

Paysafe (PSFE) price target lowered to $7 from $12 at UBS.

Planet Fitness (PLNT)  price target raised to $130 from $125 at Stifel.

Wells Fargo raised its price target on Nvidia  (NVDA)  to $265 from $220 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares ahead of quarterly results next week. Morgan Stanley also nudged its NVDA target to $220 from $210.

UBS thinks Walmart's  (WMT)  Q3 print will point to consistency of comps, less noise from external factors, and a return to healthier flow-through.

On Fox Business just now, Secretary of Labor Lori Chavez-DeRemer said the September jobs report data was collected, and she hopes it will be released next week. However, she also said the BLS was not able to collect October CPI or jobs data.

I’ll add that next week also brings the Flash November PMI report from S&P Global and what it reveals about job creation as well as input/output costs.

The number of large US corporate bankruptcies increased slightly in October from the prior month after filings slowed in September.

Large monthly bankruptcy filings ticked up to 68 in October from a revised total of 66 in September, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. The data includes companies with public debt that have assets or liabilities of at least $2 million and private companies with assets or liabilities of at least $10 million at the time of filing.

It seems the Trump administration is coming around to understand the pinch consumers are feeling.

Per this morning’s New York Times:

The Trump administration is preparing broad exemptions to certain tariffs in an effort to ease elevated food prices that have provoked anxiety for American consumers, according to three people briefed on the actions.

The change would apply to certain reciprocal tariffs the president announced in April, including on products coming from countries that have not struck trade deals with the administration, the people said, discussing a pending announcement on the condition of anonymity.

The exemptions are expected to include beef and citrus products, although the people cautioned that President Trump had not made a final decision.

This follows comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent earlier this week that the administration was going to do some something about coffee prices.

We’ll want to see how this potential move to address affordability squares with his love of tariffs. And it goes without saying, we will want to see the details of any such moves, especially in our increasingly click driven world.

 Good morning and happy Friday everyone.

Based on what we can see in equity futures, yesterday’s selling looks to continue, but we’ll want to revisit those futures as we get closer to the opening bell.

Some of that move lower yesterday can be attributed to “buy the rumor, sell the news,” with the government shutdown ending. It can also be traced to the market coming around to the likelihood that a December rate cut by the Fed isn’t a foregone conclusion. Powell told us that at the last Fed policy presser, but the last few days other Fed heads have been chiming in to that effect.

Yesterday alone:

Fed Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem said officials should move cautiously on rates with inflation running above target.

Cleveland counterpart Beth Hammack noted policy should remain “somewhat restrictive.”

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he didn’t support the last cut and is undecided on December.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – the market does not like it when it has to recalibrate expectations and uncertainty creeps in.

We’re also continuing to see what we can call extreme reactions in the market.

You may think I’m talking about the recent Palantir  (PLTR)  selloff following its earnings, but how about the some 20% drop in StubHub (STUB) shares. Granted StubHub isn’t on my radar, given what we’re seeing with the bifurcated consumer, but it’s the market reaction that we should be contemplating.

This has me thinking even more so that Freedom Capital’s Jay Woods was right when he said on the November 5^th Stocks & Markets podcast that we could see a pullback in the market. Jay shared a view I expressed in the October Monthly Portfolio Roundup, which was that after six month run for the S&P 500, and a seven month one for the Nasdaq Composite, we could see a pullback.

What would Woods be looking for?

As he put it, “…areas where buyers generally step in. Those areas could be moving averages a 50 day, a 200 day…” and as he said at the time, “I’m looking to buy some stocks that may go on sale...”

Looking at the chart below, there is still some distance, not much but some, to the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average at 6,699.12. The same goes for the Nasdaq Composite and its 50-day moving average at 22,8111.22.

It’s time to work on that shopping list, and not just for the year-end holidays.