Daily Diary

Stephen GuilfoyleStephen Guilfoyle
DATE:

That's the Ballgame

Wild day on Wall Street. Well, metaphorical Wall Street. I don't think too many people still physically work on Wall Street. 

The S&P 500 gave up 0.63% while the Nasdaq Composite surrendered 0.47% on the day. Headline risk related to the U.S./China trade conflict is having an impact on financial markets' increasing volatility.

On top of that, two regional banks, Zions Bancorporation (ZION) and Western Alliance (WAL) both disclosed issues related to troubled loans. In other news, Salesforce  (CRM)  and Alphabet's  (GOOGL)  Google announced an expansion of their already existing collaboration, where Gemini AI models will be used on platforms run by Salesforce. See my take on Salesforce here.

Investors flocked towards Treasury debt securities in search of safe haven. The 10-Year Note paid just 3.98% (-5 bps) by day's end, while the 2-Year Note paid 3.43% (-8 bps). Gold and silver both had strong days as the U.S. Dollar Index weakened. Bitcoin had another tough session.

Thank you for having me today, gang. It's always fun to fill in for Dougie when my number gets called. Looks like my football question fell flat. Maybe we'll just stick to baseball trivia in the future. 

Have a great evening. Be safe. I will see you at Doug's Diary shortly after Doug publishes his first post Friday morning. God bless.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Oct 16, 2025, 4:27 PM EDT

DeFi Technologies Responds to My Piece

After my article on DeFi Technologies (DEFT), I heard back from Curtis Schlaufman, VP Marketing & Communications, on Twitter:

I Wrote: While profitable and while sales have grown, the firm has never posted positive end-of-year annual operating cash flow. That could be changing though. The firm is expected to put profitable quarters to the tape for every quarter from the last one though the end of 2026. This year should be the firm's first year of full-year profitability since 2020.

DeFi Responds: While IFRS net loss was C$39 million for 2024, this includes a C$124.5 million discount for lack of marketability (DLOM) applied to several locked tokens it owns. The adjusted net income is positive (C$85.5 M) after adding back the non-cash DLOM.

I Wrote: Total liabilities less equity came to $805.2 million, but there was hardly any debt. There was one entry labeled as "Other Current Liabilities" that amounted to $797.4 million. That was about 99% of the firm's total liabilities and they can't describe it with something more descriptive than "Other?"

DeFi Responds: These liabilities are the Exchange Traded Products (“ETPs”) that the Company sells to its investors. The Company sells the ETPs (in substance “notes”) and takes the proceeds to purchase digital assets. Both the digital assets and the notes are on the company’s own balance sheet



BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Oct 16, 2025, 4:08 PM EDT

NFL Trivia Answer

Question

The 1972 Miami Dolphins went 14-0 that year during the regular season and won out through the playoffs and Super Bowl, finishing 17-0. That Dolphin team had lost the Super Bowl the prior year and lost their second game of the 1973 season, ending the winning streak at 18 games. That ties them for the third longest winning streak in NFL history (including the postseason). Who are the two teams and what years did they top Miami's winning streak?

Answer

The 2003 - 2004 New England Patriots went 21-0 from game 5 in 2003 through game 6 in 2004, defeating the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl XXXVIII in the process.

The 2010 - 2011 Green Bay Packers went 19-0 from game 15 in 2010 through game 13 in 2011, defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLV in the process. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Oct 16, 2025, 3:30 PM EDT

Afternoon Tweet

https://www.twitter.com/caroljsroth/status/1978891607241040295

Note: I have always kept my allocation towards gold between 5% to 10%. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Oct 16, 2025, 3:17 PM EDT

Palantir Warning

Readers may remember this cup-with-handle pattern:

Support for the cup showed up at a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April-through-September rally. Everything was working according to plan. Just one thing: The stock has consolidated (gone sideways) since mid-September. I would say that the cup-with-handle is dead. That's where I got my $185 pivot and my $218 target price from.

Now, a period of consolidation or a flat base is not necessarily a bad thing. However, if this is a double-top pattern of bearish reversal... look out.

That looks ominous, doesn't it? Let's not panic. The stock has not lost any key moving averages. It's still on the north side of both its 21-day EMA and 50-day SMA, keeping the swing crowd and the professionals frozen in place. 

I am not yet changing my target or selling more shares. That said, be cognizant that potential danger lurks in the shadows as we walk briskly past the graveyard.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Oct 16, 2025, 2:55 PM EDT

NFL Trivia

We all know that the 1972 Miami Dolphins are the only team in NFL history to put together a perfect season. The Dolphins went 14-0 that year during the regular season and won out through the playoffs and Super Bowl, finishing 17-0. That Dolphin team had lost the Super Bowl the prior year and lost their second game of the 1973 season, ending the winning streak at 18 games.

That ties them for the third-longest winning streak in NFL history (including the postseason). Who are the two teams and what years did they top Miami's winning streak? 

Hint... these are both modern-era teams.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Oct 16, 2025, 2:02 PM EDT

Adding Back On...

On Monday, I told readers that I was making sales from my long position in Churchill Capital Corp X (CCCX), which is the SPAC merging with Infleqtion. I averaged $23.43 on those sales. 

I will be adding those sales back on between here and the 21-day EMA if all goes according to plan. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Oct 16, 2025, 12:25 PM EDT

Presidential Post to Truth Social

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

I am speaking to President Putin now. The conversation is ongoing, a lengthy one, and I will report the contents, as will President Putin, at its conclusion. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Truth Details | Truth Social

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Oct 16, 2025, 11:51 AM EDT

Micron Breakout?

Micron Technology  (MU) is breaking out of the incomplete head & shoulders pattern of bearish reversal that I warned you about on Oct. 9. 

The possibility still exists that a Double Top pattern may develop. That said, I am reiterating my $241 target price and remain long the name.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Oct 16, 2025, 11:15 AM EDT

Interesting Development

An "inside day" after an "outside day" would signal reduced volatility going forward. After the June through October run, I would take some stabilization at these levels in heartbeat. This is a "Stocks Under $10" name and a top ten holding of mine in terms of allocation weighting. Target price: $65.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Oct 16, 2025, 10:35 AM EDT

Late Morning Tweet

https://www.twitter.com/RevShark/status/1978806513847115869

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Oct 16, 2025, 9:57 AM EDT

30 Minutes to Go...

S&P Futures: +33 vs FV.

Nasdaq Futures: +175 vs FV.

R2K Futures: +16 vs FV.

U.S. Ten-Year Note: 4.02%

U.S. Two-Year Note: 3.493%

U.S. Three-Month T-Bill: 3.952%

U.S. Dollar Index: -0.07%

Gold: +1.23%

Silver: +1.42%

Bitcoin: +0.22%

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Oct 16, 2025, 9:11 AM EDT

90 Minutes to Go...

S&P Futures: +30 vs FV.

Nasdaq Futures: +148 vs FV.

R2K Futures: +16 vs FV.

US Ten-Year Note: 4.028%

US Two-Year Note: 3.508%

US Three-Month T-Bill: 3.957%

US Dollar Index: -0.16%

Gold: +1.43%

Silver: +2.05%

Bitcoin: - 0.08%

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Oct 16, 2025, 7:58 AM EDT

Early Morning Tweet

https://www.twitter.com/KeithMcCullough/status/1978764294650003470

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Oct 16, 2025, 6:51 AM EDT

Rise and Shine, It's Time!

Rise and shine, my beauties. The sun is still a few hours off, but as always, we are way, way ahead of that lazy orb. 

What are we? We are truly dedicated. We are highly motivated. We are rough, tough and we can't get enough. When they say "who shall I send?" ... We say "Send me." When they say "How far?" ... We say "All the way." When they call retreat, we remind them just who the heck we are... "Stand and fight, Sir."

Feel the goose bumps. Feel the takeover. Entire body alive. Entire body surges with energy. Oh, it's Thursday. Mighty, mighty Thursday and I have nothing better to do than stand on this hill with you. 

So, dig those holes. Hit that deck. Bang out those pushups, suck down that jolt of caffeine and unsheath thy terrible swift sword. They will come soon. Let them come. For they will never forget the day they came to take what's ours. Always Pure. Always Faithful. 

Lace up those mighty boots. It's time.... 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Oct 16, 2025, 6:15 AM EDT