Daily Diary

Stephen GuilfoyleStephen Guilfoyle
DATE:

That's a Wrap

The major equity indexes finished a solid week with Friday strength on top of Thursday strength. The engine behind all of this capital being put to work was obviously Wednesday afternoon's decision by the FOMC to cut its target range for the Fed Funds rate and indicate that at least a couple of additional rate cuts were on the way.

The S&P 500 gained 0.49% for the day and 1.22% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.72% for the day and 2.21% for the week. If there was disappointment in the equity space on Friday, it was in the inability of the small-to mid-cap indexes to keep pace with their larger-cap cousin. The Russell 200 gave up 0.77% on Friday but still managed a 2.16% gain for the five-day period.

The day's headline event, as there were no earnings releases or macroeconomic events on the schedule, was a phone call between President Trump and President Xi of China. The U.S. president referred to the call as "very productive" as the two leaders made plans to meet in person. A deal was also made, supposedly, to transfer TikTok ownership inside the U.S. into American hands.

Technology XLK was the hottest sector SPDR ETF for the day, up 1.01% on the session, as the Dow Jones US Software Index gained 1.8%. The Energy SPDR XLE was the day's big loser at -1.8%. Six of the 11 sector SPDRs closed the day in the green. Treasury debt securities closed mostly flat to down (yields up) small.

Once again, it has been my pleasure to fill in for Dougie and hang with all of you. I hope that I did Earl Morrall proud. 

May you all have a safe and happy weekend. God bless you all. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Sep 19, 2025, 4:45 PM EDT

Baseball Trivia Answer

Q) Since the advent of the wild-card era (1995), Randy Johnson of the 1999 Arizona Diamondbacks threw 271.2 innings, which is the most in one season by any one pitcher since. Who was the last Major League pitcher maybe ever to toss 250 or more innings in one season? This has only happened nine times since the turn of the millennium.

A) In 2011, Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers started 34 games, completing 4 of them. He threw 251 innings, going 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA and won the first of his three Cy Young Awards. Roy Halladay pitched exactly 250 innings for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2010, going 21-10, winning the second of his two Cy Young Awards. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Sep 19, 2025, 3:30 PM EDT

Peloton Readies for Another Attempt

 'Stocks Under $10' name Peloton Interactive PTON is preparing to make a second attempt at taking and holding the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-through-April selloff. The shares have been supported by their 21-day EMA as they have recovered from the most recent selloff.

Note that the recovery of a small Double Bottom bullish reversal is still intact as the 50-day SMA closes in on the 200-day SMA from below. That could provoke some institutional investment as professionals have pretty much steered clear of this stock for some time now.

I currently have a $9 price target on the stock. A take and hold of that level would likely force me to move my target up to either $10 or $11.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Sep 19, 2025, 3:00 PM EDT

Baseball Trivia

In 1879, Will White of the Cincinnati Reds went 43-31 with a 1.99 ERA. White made 75 starts, completing every one of them and appeared in relief in one other game. He pitched 680 innings that year. The team played 81 games. White was the entire rotation. He was also the winning pitcher in every single game won by the team throughout the entire season.

Since the advent of the wild-card era (1995), Randy Johnson of the 1999 Arizona Diamondbacks threw 271.2 innings, which is the most in one season by any one pitcher since. Who was the last Major League pitcher maybe ever to toss 250 or more innings in one season? This has only happened nine times since the turn of the millennium. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Sep 19, 2025, 2:36 PM EDT

Quantum Leap

From Seeking Alpha:

Quantum computing stocks rose on Friday to end an action-packed week in the sector.

Leading the gains were Quantum Co. $QMCO, which rose more than 28% in late morning trading, and Quantum Computing $QUBT, which added more than 22%. Also seeing strong gains were IonQ $IONQ, Arqit Quantum $ARQQ and D-Wave Quantum $QBTS all of which rose 3% or more. Rigetti Computing $RGTI added nearly 11%, shortly before 12 p.m. EST.

It was unclear what was driving the moves higher in the sector, though Cyberscoop reported that the Trump administration is weighing executive orders to accelerate a quantum security push.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Sep 19, 2025, 1:30 PM EDT

Microsoft: The Little Engine?

Can they do it? 

Microsoft MSFT is currently in the process of trying to retake its 50-day SMA (I think I can, I think I can). Doing so would force portfolio managers to increase long-side exposure. 

In doing so, the stock is about 5/8 of the way towards developing a Cup pattern, as its reading for Relative Strength improves and its daily MACD is trading to get all three components into positive territory. Most importantly, the 12-day EMA is rising faster than the 26-day EMA.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Sep 19, 2025, 12:50 PM EDT

SOFI Pulls Away...

SoFi Technologies SOFI is breaking out from its $27 pivot created by a bullish Ascending Triangle pattern. The stock is trading at an all-time high. Relative Strength is bordering on reaching a technical overbought state. The Daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence is still postured very bullishly. My target price remains $33 for now.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Sep 19, 2025, 11:16 AM EDT

From The Fly...

Market Action: Wall Street opened in the green 

10:15 $ECON Market Action: Wall Street opened in the green and is extending Thursday's record gains where the major indexes, along the Russell 2000, closed at record highs for the first time since 2021. And Bloomberg reported that had only happened 25 times before that. The first Fed rate cut boosted demand for risk and news of Nvidia's NVDA $5 billion investment in Intel INTC added to bullish enthusiasm with earnings season looming.

The markets await news of the phone call between presidents Trump and Xi. Meanwhile there was a hawkish hold from the BoJ overnight, weighing on the Nikkei. The Nasdaq is leading the way with a 0.48% gain, while the S&P 500 is up 0.3% and the Dow is 0.24% higher. For the month the indexes are registering respective gains of 5.2%, 2.8%, and 1.54%. Treasury yields are slightly higher as the market continues to digest the FOMC's stance after the Fed disappointed expectations for a more dovish lean.

Meanwhile supply picks up next with $183 billion in Treasury supply with 2-, 5-, and 7-year notes. The bullish market conditions are also expected to bring a flood of corporate issuance. The wi 2-year is at 3.54%, with the wi 5-year at 3.672%, the wi 7-year at 3.868%, and the 10-year at 4.114%. The DXY firmed to 97.809 but has dipped back to 97.557.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Sep 19, 2025, 10:45 AM EDT

Friday Morning Tweet of the Day

https://www.twitter.com/Convertbond/status/1969033405623918643

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Sep 19, 2025, 10:28 AM EDT

James Bullard on Bloomberg TV This Morning

"I thought the Fed's decision was a good one," Bullard said. 

When asked if he would have voted for a half-percentage point cut, he added, "No, I don't think so." 

Bullard, who is among as many as 11 individuals under consideration to replace Jerome Powell as Chair at the central bank in 2026 did allow that he expects a "sequence of three moves in a row through the end of the year." 

Bullard said that reducing the Fed Funds Rate by a total of three-quarters of a percentage point by year's end would leave the Fed with some "optionality" entering 2026. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Sep 19, 2025, 9:19 AM EDT

Global Market Update via The Fly...

Market Update: European stock markets are trading mixed as yields move higher. The DAX pared early gains and the FTSE 100 is also down on the day, after a mixed close across Asia overnight. Chinese bourses closed little changed, but the Nikkei corrected, after a "hawkish hold" from the BoJ. Bonds are under pressure and the German 10-year rate is up 2.1 bp, the 10-year Gilt yield 3.2 bp and the U.S. 10 year rate 2.1 bp. JGBs underperformed, and the 10-year rate jumped 4.0 bp. The DXY is up 0.4% at 97.68, and gold has inched up 0.1% to USD 3648.91 per ounce. The front end WTI contract has corrected -0.2% to USD 63.44 per barrel.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Sep 19, 2025, 9:05 AM EDT

Upgrades, Downgrades & Target Prices



Darden DRI price target lowered to $225 from $240 at KeyBanc

Darden price target lowered to $208 from $230 at Baird

Darden price target lowered to $205 from $215 at BMO Capital Darden price target lowered to $240 from $245 at Evercore ISI

Intel price target raised to $35 from $25 at UBS

Intel downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citi

FactSet FDS price target lowered to $324 from $452 at BMO Capital FactSet price target lowered to $293 from $393 at Morgan Stanley

FactSet price target lowered to $372 from $464 at Stifel

FedEx FDX price target raised to $300 from $285 at Susquehanna

FedEx price target raised to $314 from $293 at UBS



Nike NKE upgraded to Positive from Negative at BWG Global

DuPont (DD) price target lowered to $104 from $107 at BMO Capital

CrowdStrike CRWD price target raised to $490 from $460 at Baird

General Mills GIS price target lowered to $52 from $57 at Mizuho

Apple AAPL price target raised to $280 from $255 at JPMorgan

Alphabet GOOGL price target raised to $290 from $250 at Citizens JMP

MongoDB MDB price target raised to $375 from $345 at Citizens JMP

Tesla TSLA upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird

Micron MU price target raised to $175 from $140 at Barclays

UPS UPS downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital

Newmont NEM price target raised to $92 from $70 at UBS 

Royal Caribbean RCL price target lowered to $333 from $337 at Truist



BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Sep 19, 2025, 8:49 AM EDT

Under 90 Minutes To Go...

S&P Futures: +22 vs FV.

Nasdaq Futures: +27 vs FV.

Russell 2000 Futures: +2 vs FV.

US Ten-Year Note: 4.144%

US Two-Year Note: 3.595%

US Three-Month T-Bill: 3.981%

US Dollar Index: +0.3%

WTI Crude: -0.16%

Gold: +0.07%

Silver: +0.44%

Bitcoin: -0.93%

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Sep 19, 2025, 8:20 AM EDT

Lace Up Those Cleats, Your Own 'Earl Morrall' Is Here

Mornin'. Your old pal Dougie is off today. Your second-best pal is in. Don't worry. The 1972 Miami Dolphins went 14-0 that regular season, and 17-0 including the playoffs and Super Bowl. The starting quarterback for those great Miami teams of the early 1970's was Hall of Famer Bob Griese. However, he was injured and missed most of that season. The team went 11-0 with backup quarterback Earl Morrall at the helm.

One of the first things legendary head coach Don Shula did when he came over to Miami from the Baltimore Colts was bring his backup QB on those great Baltimore teams of the late 1960's/early 1970's with him. That's right, in Baltimore, Earl Morrall backed up Hall of Famer Johnny Unitas and did a nice job there too. Shula knew the value of having a high-quality second stringer at the game's most important position.

Now, we're going to assume that Dougie is the Hall of Famer here. He can choose whether he wants to be Unitas or Griese. In my opinion, Unitas is one of the top-five quarterbacks in NFL/AFL history. Griese was efficient, but mostly handed the ball off to the trio of Csonka, Morris and Kiick. Miami also had a great defense. Regardless of which Hall of Famer Doug is, I want to be Earl Morrall, the only QB in pro football history to regularly fill in for different Hall of Famers and lead those teams so that they never skipped a beat. That's my goal for today. That's my goal every time I fill in for Doug. Rock on.

P.S.: You're not off the hook. Drop and give me what you got. Now, dig. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Sep 19, 2025, 6:42 AM EDT