As of 4:20 p.m.:

Breadth

S&P Sectors

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Volume

- NYSE volume 3% above its one-month average

- NASDAQ volume 14% above its one-month average

- VIX index: down 2.35% to 14.99

Breadth

Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

I have a family health issue that I have to deal with today.

As a result my posts will be less frequent and shorter.

I am bidding for more PEP.

This is why I continue to write my Diary after 28 years:

lonestar

1 hour ago

Doug, great post on your friend and the state of "educated debate". The educated debate takes many forms. Charlie Kirk used wit and logic to debate with people. Your forum is a valuable resource to myself, and another form of educated debate. You put your interpretation up on this and many other forums and ask others to critique them. You're not stuck in your viewpoint, rather you challenge others to show you another side of the coin. We can't quit, we can't sit still and we must continue to learn and ask for enlightenment. I can't say you know everything, your perspective is 100% correct but perfection is overrated. I appreciate your efforts and will continue to login and read them, whether I agree or not it's an educated perspective. Thanks Doug and my condolences to you on this day and I'm sure your friend is almost as thankful for your continued remembrance as you are for the memories you have of him.

I covered ORCL short at $313.20 for a quick profit.

From Peter Boockvar:

Inflation stuck around 3% while initial claims jump

August CPI rose .4% headline and .3% core m/o/m with the y/o/y headline gain at 2.9% and 3.1% vs 2.7% and 3.1% respectively in the month before. Energy prices rose .7% m/o/m after falling by 1.1% in July and flattish y/o/y. Food prices jumped by .5% after no change in July and are higher by 3.1% y/o/y. Food at home saw prices rebound by .6% m/o/m and 2.7% y/o/y while food away from home had a price gain of .3% m/o/m and 3.9% y/o/y.

Services inflation ex energy saw a .3% m/o/m gain and 3.6% y/o/y, remaining pretty persistent because of rents and medical care. Medical care costs did fall by .2% but only after rising by .7% in July and .5% in June and are up 3.4% y/o/y. Health insurance prices were up .1% m/o/m and 4.3% y/o/y but in reality are rising faster than that. OER was up .4% m/o/m and 4% y/o/y while Rent of Primary Residence saw a price gain of .3% m/o/m and 3.5% y/o/y. Yes, blended rent gains in the real world are more like 2-3% but AGAIN, these numbers never reflected the spike a few years ago.

Airline fares rose a sharp 5.9% m/o/m after a 4% rise in July and now higher by 3.3% y/o/y. We’ve seen capacity cuts on the part of airlines with still decent demand. Hotel prices rebounded by 2.6% m/o/m after a few months of sharp declines. Auto insurance price gains are slowing down with no change in August but still up 4.7% y/o/y. We can blame tariffs for this, ‘motor vehicle maintenance’ prices jumped by 2.4% m/o/m and by 8.5% y/o/y in part due to higher auto part prices.

On the goods side, core goods prices rose .3% m/o/m after two months of .2% gains and now up by 1.5% y/o/y. That doesn’t sound like much but it’s the quickest rate of gain since May 2023. Used car prices bounced by 1% m/o/m and 6% y/o/y while new car prices were up .3% m/o/m and .7% m/o/m. After tariff induced jumps in the prices of most everything related to the home in the prior few months, prices here were up .1% m/o/m and by 2.8% y/o/y. Apparel prices, in the key back to school time frame, rose .5% m/o/m but little changed y/o/y, up .2%.

To some extent, we are all eating some of these tariffs, one time or not.

Bottom line, we have inflation stuck around 3% with still persistent service price gains and now a lift in goods prices. I still think service prices decelerate in the rest of the year because of slowing rents but could be offset by other things like services ex housing and goods prices.

Services Inflation ex Energy y/o/y

Core Goods Prices y/o/y

The other big thing of note was the jump in initial jobless claims which spiked to 263k from 236k and was well above the estimate of 235k. This brings the 4 week average to 241k from 231k, the most since late June. Continuing claims were unchanged w/o/w at 1.939mm, though that was 11k below expectations.

Treasury yields are rallying not on CPI but that weak initial claims figure with the 10 yr yield now right at 4% vs 4.05% right before the data was released. The S&P futures knee jerk is to rally on the Fed easing believing that is the cure to a weakening economy.

Taking this all in, the Fed will respond to the softening labor market but the inflation stats are going to limit the amount of cuts we’re going to see and thus I don’t agree with the calls of 50-75 bps of cuts next week that I’ve heard, especially with such easy financial conditions that are clear. Prudently and from a risk management stand point should lead to just 25 bps and then a wait and see until the late October meeting.

Inflation is kryptonite to a central bank and the Fed is still 50% above their 2% inflation goal on a sustainable basis and thus limits, I believe, their ability to respond to moderating economic growth.

4 Week Avg Initial Claims

Continuing Claims

I shorted ORCL at $333.41 in premarket trading

Chewy CHWY price target lowered to $43 from $46 at UBS 

UBS lowered the firm's price target on Chewy to $43 from $46 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. 

Deutsche upgrades Chewy to Buy on more reasonable expectations 

Deutsche Bank upgraded Chewy to Buy from Hold with a price target of $45, up from $38, post the fiscal Q2 report. The company's growth investments in the second half of 2025 will drive earnings estimate cuts, but buy-side expectations are "now in a better place," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes that if Chewy's investments reinforce its market share position, the company has more levers to drive revenue growth in 2026 and beyond relative to the downside risks. 

Chewy price target lowered to $48 from $50 at TD Cowen 

TD Cowen lowered the firm's price target on Chewy to $48 from $50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Chewy's Q2 results beat consensus expectations for revenue and EBITDA slightly while generating strong gross margins, and management raised revenue guidance for the full year, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Shares declined 17% following the results, likely due to elevated buyside expectations and higher SG&A expenses in Q2, the firm says.

On PepsiCo PEP:

PepsiCo price target lowered to $170 from $175 at UBS UBS analyst Peter Grom lowered the firm's price target on PepsiCo to $170 from $175 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated its volume forecast to account for international softness, the analyst tells investors in a research note. 

From JPMorgan:

US: Futs have a slight bid into CPI, let by Tech. AAPL / AMZN are leading Mag7 higher with ORCL +1.4% after its +36% move yesterday. In a familiar pattern this week, Cyclicals are outperforming Defensives, pre-mkt. Bond yields are flat, USD is up small, and cmdtys are seeing some profit-taking with both Energy and Metals lower. CPI and Jobless Claims are the focus for today as investors solidify views into next week’s Fed as well as Oct / Dec meetings.

and...

[5.0%] Core MoM prints above 0.40%. SPX loses 1.5% - 2%

· [25.0%] Core MoM prints between 0.35% - 0.40%. SPX loses 0.5% - 1%

· [35.0%] Core MoM prints between 0.30% - 0.35%. SPX loses 25bps to gains 50bps

· [30.0%] Core MoM prints between 0.25% - 0.30%. SPX gains 1% - 1.5%

· [5.0%] Core MoM prints below 0.25%. SPX gains 1.25% - 1.75%

· WHAT ARE OPTIONS PRICING? Options that expire on Tuesday are pricing ~92bp move based on Monday’s (Sep 8) closing prices. This is touch lighter than usual when we typically see about a 1.25% implied move.

· US MARKET INTEL – Similar to our NFP analysis, we think the outcomes are skewed positively as we think Powell’s Jackson Hole speech cemented a 25bp cut for September. We do not think there is a credible threat to the print that would force the Fed to remain paused in September. However, we do think a materially hawkish print here adjusts the Fed’s reaction function to October and December meetings. Stated plainly, if we see a spike to inflation in this print then it is likely we see inflation acceleration into year-end and into 2026. That outcome is likely to keep the Fed on the sidelines for Oct / Dec especially if GDP growth metrics continue to move higher. Alternatively, a dovish print will increase expectations for the Fed to cut by 50bp in September, which is a positive tail-risk.

Upside:

-SLXN +194% (remains on Track for Phase 2/3 Trial Initiation in 1H26 following planned 4Q25 and 1Q26 Regulatory Submissions; Reports Positive Preclinical Data Demonstrating SIL204’s Reach and Activity in Major Pancreatic Cancer Metastatic Sites Following Systemic Administration)

-VNCE +168% (earnings, guidance)

-AMST +60% (NurseMagic sees 63% revenue growth)

-KZIA +41% (reports Complete Ex Vivo Disruption of Large Circulating Tumor Cell Clusters in Stage IV HER2-Positive Breast Cancer with Paxalisib Monotherapy)

-OPEN +36% (appoints Shopify's Kaz Nejatian as CEO; Co-Founders Rabois and Wu Rejoin Board, effective immediately; enters $40M purchase agreement with Kholsa Ventures and Eric Wu)

-MAZE +31% (announces Positive First-in-Human Results from Phase 1 Trial of MZE782, Establishing Proof of Mechanism for a Potent, Oral SLC6A19 Inhibitor with Potential to Treat Phenylketonuria (PKU) and Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD); announces oversubscribed $150M Private Placement of 4.0M shares at $16.25/shr)

-WLDS +29% (prices 1.0M shares at $4.00/shr in $4M registered direct offering priced ATM)

-MGIH +22% (momentum)

-OXM +18% (earnings, guidance)

-CNC +13% (affirms FY25 guidance; comments from DB Healthcare conference)

-RVMD +11% (shares New Clinical Results Supporting Initiation of RASolute 303, a Global Phase 3 Registrational Trial of Daraxonrasib in First Line Metastatic Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma)

-RCAT +8.6% (announces Its Teal Drones Black Widow System Approved for NATO NSPA Catalogue)

-SNDK +5.9% (Goldman conference comments)

-ABBV +5.8% (Abbvie Endocrine Inc receives US FDA NDA Supplemental 40, 41, 47, 48 approval for Lupron Depot; discloses it has settled litigation with all generic manufacturers that filed abbreviated new drug applications with the U.S. FDA for generic versions of upadacitinib tablets, which AbbVie markets as RINVOQ)

-MOH +5.8% (higher in sympathy with CNC)

-SNPS +5.4% (Mizuho Securities Reiterates SNPS with Outperform, price target: $600 from $700)

-MU +3.5% (Citi raises price target)

-ELV +2.6% (higher in sympathy with CNC)

Downside:

-RNA -21% (files to sell $500M proposed public offering of common stock)

-ENVX -13% (prices $300M offering of 4.75% convertible notes due 2030)

-LOVE -13% (earnings, guidance)

-HOFT -8.8% (earnings, guidance)

-KLAR -2.8% (earnings, guidance)

-SLS -2.7% (announces Exercise of Existing Warrants Held by a Current Institutional Investor for $23.6M in Gross Proceeds)

-UPS -2.2% (Tier1 firm Cuts UPS to Underperform from Neutral, price target: $83 from $91)

11:00 a.m.: Treasury announces a 3 and 6 month bill auction;

11:00 a.m.: Treasury Announces a TIPS and Bond Auction;

11:30 a.m.; Treasury hosts a $100B 4 and$85B 8 Week Bill Auction;

1 p.m.: Treasury hosts a $22B 30-Year Bond Auction

Economic calendar for the week

* It is terribly unfortunate — and we were reminded of this again yesterday — that violence (to settle political differences) has been too much of a mainstay in our country.

* Wednesday's violent killing of Charlie Kirk opens up the wounds of past violence (See Ezra Klein's comments below).

* On this day, as has been the case for the past 24 years, my eyes remain full of tears.

* The losses are still surreal, those wounds remains fresh and, especially today, it doesn't get easier as time goes by.

In the last few years we've seen:

- The plot to kidnap Gretchen Whitmer

- The storming of the Capitol and pipe bombs left at the RNC and DNC

- The break-in to kidnap Nancy Pelosi and the brutal attack on Paul Pelosi

- Multiple assassination attempts on President Trump

- the assassination of Minnesota's House Speaker Melissa Horman and her husband

- The shooting of State Senator John Hoffman and his wife

- Luigi Mangione's assassination of Brian Thompson

- The assassination of Charlie Kirk

Political violence is contagious. It is spreading. It is not confined to one side or belief system. It should terrify us all. The foundation of a free society is the ability to participate in it without fear of violence. Political violence is always an attack against us all. You have to be blind not to see that.

- Ezra Klein

I repost this opening missive annually with a heavy heart...

Death leaves a heartache that no one can heal but love leaves a memory no one can steal.

"What do you want me to do,

To watch for you while you're sleeping?

Well, please don't be surprised when you find me dreaming too;

It's just a box of rain,

I don't know who put it there.

Believe it if you need it,

Or leave it if you dare;

But it's just a box of rain

Or a ribbon for your hair;

Such a long, long time to be gone,

And a short time to be there."

- Grateful Dead, Box of Rain

As many subscribers are aware, on every anniversary of the World Trade Center tragedy on Sept. 11, I honor my closest friend who was lost 24 years ago — Chuck "Brown Bear" Zion — as well as the other victims of the terrorist attacks that day.

After nearly 2 1/2 decades, it doesn't get easier.

Relatedly, six years ago I received this email from a mutual friend of Chuck's, Don Gher (mentioned in the previous post):

Two years ago I received another email from Don:

Sadly, Chuck Zion's dad, Rabbi Martin Zion, has passed away, years ago. The lovely Jane, Chuck's mom and Rabbi's wife, recently died. They have joined Brown Bear after all these years of separation.

Please read this column, "Keys to a Life Well Lived," that I had written about Rabbi Zion, based on a letter he sent me in October 2016, two months before his death:

"Who is wise? One who learns from every man ... Who is strong? One who overpowers his inclinations ... Who is rich? One who is satisfied with his lot ... Who is honorable? One who honors his fellows."

- Ben Zoma, Ethics of the Fathers

Today marks 24 years since the Sept. 11 World Trade Center tragedy. (Please take some time that day to watch Ground Zero Rising, Jim "El Capitan" Cramer's brilliant documentary on the attack and the subsequent rebuilding).

Sept. 11, 2001, is a day that we will forever remember with clarity and disbelief. I lost my best friend, while members of TheStreet community lost one of our own — the late Bill Meehan.

It still seems like only yesterday to me, and it's a day that I'll forever remember vividly. As I've written before, 2001 will for many of us forever be annus horribilis, the year of disaster.

On this day, as has been the case for the past 24 years, my eyes remain full of tears. I'm drafting this column in memory of all of those I knew (and didn't know) who lost their lives in the World Trade Center, in Pennsylvania and in Washington, D.C.

As I've written previously, it's said that death leaves a heartache that no one can heal, but that love leaves a memory no one can steal. And so it will be today as we observe the anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks.

As I've done in each of the intervening years, I want to use my opening missive to repeat the thoughts that I've often expressed about Sept. 11. As always, I dedicate this column to those who were lost — especially to my best pal, Chuck Zion (a.k.a., "Brown Bear"):

"Chuck worked at Cantor Fitzgerald, the brokerage firm that lost nearly 700 employees 18 years ago. It was the hardest-hit company in the World Trade Center tragedy, accounting for nearly one-quarter of the building's deaths that day. I lost many friends at Cantor on Sept. 11: Eric, Pat, Timmy — too many to count. So did many others. And of course, we all lost one of TheStreet's own, Bill 'Budman' Meehan.

In Cantor Fitzgerald's equity division, none had more of a presence (literally and figuratively) than Chuck Zion. He was known to his friends and clients as "The Brown Bear," a sensitive, giving and caring friend; father to Zack; son to Martin and Jane; and husband to the amazing Carole ("Cheezy"). His love was pure, and there was never any pretense — not wordy, he was on point.

The largest producer over the past decade at Cantor Fitzgerald, Chuck was master of his universe. He was straightforward and clear-cut, a no-nonsense and respected partner who was remarkably generous but never, ever wanted others to know it. He gave often and substantially but always anonymously, without strings attached. Chuck, who also worked at Salomon Brothers and Sanford C. Bernstein, put on some of the largest trades in the history of the equities market. He was the player the "big boys" went to when they wanted anonymity. And I am talking multimillion-share trades, the really big prints.

And it was Chuck who introduced me to Bill Meehan. He even had me fill in for Budman on a few occasions in the Cantor Daily News.

I cherished and loved Chuck Zion, spending many nights hanging with him in his Round Hill Road home in Greenwich, Connecticut — he was my confidante and a brother that I never had. When I moved to Florida in the late 1990s, Chuck introduced me to his father and mother — asking me to take them out once or twice a year, to look after them a bit. In time, Rabbi Zion and Jane became more than casual dinner mates; they became my mother and father, so Chuck and I really were like brothers (though absent the same blood).

I spoke to Chuck every morning at around 6:15 a.m. If I didn't call him on my direct line to Cantor's trading desk by 6:20 a.m., he'd get angry and yell at me in no uncertain terms! Invariably, legendary money managers Neil Weissman, Stanley Shopkorn, Dan Tisch or Phil Marber (Cantor's former CEO) would interrupt our daily calls. He would take their calls, and then shortly, Chuck would call me back. We rarely talked about the stock market, preferring to talk sports and food (his favorite activity!). Sometimes Chuck would tell me to check out Maureen Dowd's editorial piece in The New York Times ("Dougie, she is mandatory reading"), or who was on Imus that morning. I got him to buy a couple of harness horses with me for fun and he got a kick out of them as we followed their losing races. "We'll get him next time," he would say (his credo) — though we never did!

We played golf together (Chuck wrote the word "Lost" on each of his golf balls because he lost so many of them that he wanted the other players to know they were his), usually with Phil Marber or SAC's Andy Smoller. We talked NCAA football and basketball, especially about Syracuse University's teams (his alma mater). But mostly we talked about our children.

The Friday before Sept. 11, 2001, was my last day in the office, as I was leaving for Europe for 10 days. That day we spent a lot of time talking about his son Zack, reminiscing about the trip Zack and I had recently taken to New Haven to Yale University, where he watched me lecture at Dr. Robert Shiller's class on short-selling.

Chuck was so proud of the way Zack had become a man. And he was nervously awaiting Greenwich High's football season with such anticipation. (They had won the state title the previous year, with Zack playing the offensive line.) Every time he talked about the upcoming season, his voice would rise several decibels. He was the proudest father on the face of the earth.

That Friday morning, the last day I spoke to Chuck, I was playing a Grateful Dead song in the background and I had Chuck on the speaker. Chuck was never what I would call "into" music. He was certainly not a fan of the Grateful Dead — maybe Motown, but not the Dead. Surprisingly, in our early morning talk, Chuck remarked how beautiful the song was. The song was Box of Rain, and the lyrics captured the concept of how short life can be.

Chuck's New York Times obituary is still taped to my stock monitor in my office as a forever reminder of his loss. The paper is now aged, yellowed and torn, but the scars still seem fresh.

Today, after writing this missive, I will again share Chuck's memories with his many friends (like Phil Marber) and with numerous longtime subscribers to TheStreet and TheStreet Pro (like Don Gher who has already sent me a note and prayer posted earlier). They were all Brown Bear's business associates, recipients of his wise advice or just friends — and who, as they have every year, will pass on their day's thoughts to me in e-mails or phone calls, which I eagerly anticipate and will always cherish.

TheStreet Pro subscriber Don Gher mailed me a classic story [four years ago] about Brown Bear. Don was thinking about Chuck and relayed that one of his pals, ex-Cantor Los Angeles and Dallas trader Eddie Weber, told him that one day he was at Cantor's NYC office, and he and Brown Bear walked out of the World Trade Center to grab lunch. There was a hot dog vendor there, and Chuck asked how many he had left. The guy said 12, and Chuck said, "Sold!" And then they proceeded to eat all of them. That was my brother, Chuck — an original.

I will never forget Mark Haines' report on CNBC of the first, second, third and fourth incidents that day, as I watched the horror on a television on a cruise ship in the Mediterranean.

And I will never forget the real-time reporting — the confusion and emotion — at TheStreet on that fateful day, the revelation of the extent of the tragedy and the follow-up tributes by our contributors. (TheStreet's headquarters were physically very close to Ground Zero.)

Ironically or sadly, the Jewish New Year (Rosh Hashanah) and Yom Kippur (the Day of Atonement) quickly followed on the heels of Sept. 11, 2001.

The most poignant recollection on TheStreet was the following post by Jim "El Capitan" Cramer, who recalled an incident at his synagogue. To this day, it always brings me to tears:

"At our synagogue last night on the eve of the Jewish New Year, our rabbi asked us to shout out the names of friends and family that we'd lost that day. There were so many names, it was frightening and I was glad we had left the kids at home. I felt honored to yell out Bill's name. And I feel honored to have gotten to meet and work with him in his short time on earth. Oops, wanted to cry as I wrote that. Could feel it coming on. Nope, no can do. Not with that picture of him in my mind wearing that funny floral shirt. He wouldn't want us to remember him in any other way than with laughter. God bless your soul, Bill. God bless the Meehan family."

- Jim Cramer, Remembering Bill Meehan

Today I will also share my fond memories of TheStreet's and Cantor Fitzgerald's Bill Meehan with his good pals Jim Cramer, Tony Dwyer, Herbela Greenberg and others, and we will all toast him as so many subscribers did in the fall of 2001.

"All that's necessary for the forces of evil to win in the world is for enough good men to do nothing."

- Edmund Burke

Fortunately, on May 2, 2011, some very good and courageous men gained revenge for Osama bin Laden's deeds some 10 years earlier. I hope bin Laden rots in hell, but revenge doesn't reverse the loss of so many.

As Samuel Johnson once wrote: "Revenge is an act of passion; vengeance of justice. Injuries are revenged; crimes are avenged."

I suppose that living and remembering are the best forms of revenge.

Thanks for reading this, and thanks for letting me wear my feelings on my sleeve.

... As you watch the annual tribute in downtown New York City this morning, I think about our lost loved ones and how lucky we all are. We all miss you, Chuck.

Below is a plaque memorializing Chuck at Temple Emanuel in Davenport, Iowa, where his dad Rabbi Martin Zion led the congregation:

Finally, I dedicated my book, Doug Kass on the Market: A Life on The Street to Chuck Zion — so that every time I pick up my book, I think about and feel ever closer to my pal.

__________

Though decades ago, the wound is still fresh as I think about Chuck often — I know I will for the rest of my life.

That was the way it was meant to be.

With tears in my eyes and with such respect for the first responders, last night I was watching a replay of 60 Minutes, which devoted a full hour to 9/11 and the FDNY — and the many that gave their lives to rescue others.

I suppose what separates us from the animals, what separates us from the chaos, is our ability to mourn people we've never met.

I mourn them all and I am in awe of the ultimate sacrifice that so many made twenty four years ago today.

RIP Brown Bear.

RIP Charlie Kirk.

Before I go to my annual tribute to the Americans that fell during 9/11, I wanted to repost Tuesday's column:

Remembering 9-11 and Brown Bear (Chuck Zion)

"What do you want me to do,

To watch for you while you're sleeping?

Well, please don't be surprised when you find me dreaming too;

It's just a box of rain,

I don't know who put it there.

Believe it if you need it,

Or leave it if you dare;

But it's just a box of rain

Or a ribbon for your hair;

Such a long, long time to be gone,

And a short time to be there.

- Grateful Dead, Box of Rain

As I get older I get much more sentimental.

Older memories somehow become fresher memories.

And as we close in on another anniversary of the World Trade Tragedy of 9/11 I miss Brown Bear (Chuck Zion) more than ever.

I will publish my annual tribute to Chuck and the victims on Thursday morning.

But I just got this great email from another dear friend of Chuck's who I have quoted frequently in the past - Don Gher.

Don's email to me this morning:

To all of my friends (some of whom are also subscribers) and who shared a friendship with Chuck over the years, please email me to share memories.

By Doug Kass Sep 9, 2025 11:16 AM EDT

Bonus — Here are some great links:

Oracle

Where Has Industrials Leadership Gone?

5 Charts That Could Move the Market

Bitcoin Miners Just Getting Started

Best and Worst Stocks to Own During Triple Witching Week

The S&P Short Range Oscillator stands at 2.18% vs. 2.25%.