As of 4:19 p.m.:

Closing Volume

- NYSE volume 16% above its one-month average

- NASDAQ volume 12% above its one-month average

- VIX index: up 2.06% to 15.35

Breadth

Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

$2.2 billion to buy market on close.

I have reduced my index shorts to very small on the late dip:

* SPY $650.82

* QQQ $579.07

I plan to expand my shorts on any strength.

From an old friend, Jim Chanos:

and...

Wolf Street howls about the PPI.

I initiated a small long trading rental in Chewy CHWY at $34.91.

skeptcl

TMTB this morning on ORCL:

Key quote from Big Bull Larry:

"Eventually, AI will change everything, but right now, AI is fundamentally transforming Oracle and the rest of the computer industry, though not everyone fully grasps the extent of the tsunami that is approaching…Several world-class AI companies have chosen Oracle to build large-scale GPU-centric datacenters to train their AI models. That's because Oracle builds gigawatt-scale datacenters that are faster and more cost-efficient at training AI models than anyone else in the world ... Training AI models is a gigantic multi-trillion-dollar market. It's hard to conceive of a technology market as large as that one. But if you look close, you can find one that's even larger, and is the market for AI inferencing, millions of customers using those AI models to run businesses and governments. In fact, the AI inferencing market will be much, much larger than the AI training market. AI inferencing will be used to run robotic factories, robotic cars, robotic greenhouses, biomolecular simulations for drug design, interpreting medical diagnostic images and laboratory results, automating laboratories, placing bets in financial markets, automating legal processes, automating financial processes, automating sales processes. AI is going to write, that is, generate the computer programs called AI agents that will automate your sales and marketing processes. Let me repeat that. AI is going to automatically write the computer programs that will then automate your sales processes, and your legal processes, and everything else in your factories and so on. Think about it. AI inferencing. It's AI inferencing that will change everything"

I added to MSOS at $4.81 and I am bidding lower for some more.

Here are today's things:

* Added to index shorts:

SPY $653.96

QQQ $583.76

* Added to GRNY short at $24.27.

* Added to MSOS long at $4.81 

* Added to PEP long at $141.68.

* Covered my AAPL short under $230.

Breadth

Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

I have a research meeting starting around 11 a.m.

Will take about an hour.

Radio silence.

I have covered my AAPL under $230 for a profit.

The shares are down $4 today after being down a similar amount yesterday.

Here is what I wrote yesterday:

I plan to reshort strength.

A bunch on Apple AAPL:

Citi says Apple's iPhone updates in line with expectations Citi analyst Atif Malik found Apple's iPhone 17 updates yesterday in line with expectations. The firm believes iPhone Air rollout will provide groundwork the foundations for a foldable phone in 2026. Citi keeps a Buy rating on Apple with a $245 price target. The stock closed Tuesday down 1.5% to $234.35.

Apple price target raised to $270 from $260 at BofA BofA analyst Wamsi Mohan raised the firm's price target on Apple to $270 from $260 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following the iPhone launch event, which the firm says "went mostly as expected." The firm, which notes that it had already factored in a $100 higher price for iPhone 17 Air versus the 16 Plus, moves its estimates "slightly higher" as the Pro model now starts with 256GB at $1,099, versus $999 for 128GB last year.

Apple price target raised to $260 from $250 at Evercore ISI Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani raised the firm's price target on Apple to $260 from $250 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after Apple held its "awe dropping" event where it officially launched this year's iPhone lineup, including the long-awaited Apple Air model, in addition to the iPhone 17 base, Pro and Pro Max models. The Air will be a new form factor design that could help reinvigorate Apple's user base and be the start of a multi-year iPhone roadmap, says the analyst, who also points to a number of "notable performance upgrades" across the iPhone 17 lineup featuring the A19 and A19 Pro chips.

Apple product launch event 'mixed bag,' says JPMorgan JPMorgan views Apple's fall product launch event as largely in line with expectations. The "modest upsides" related to favorable pricing for the iPhone 17 were balanced by "downside to the bull-case" from the iPhone Air on its premium pricing, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan believes the event marked limited surprises across AirPods, Watches, and iPhones. For investors hoping for a larger volume cycle driven by the significant redesign in launching the thinnest iPhone ever, the bull case on Apple shares will moderate, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm keeps an Overweight rating on Apple, viewing the event yesterday as a "mixed bag."

Apple event 'slightly more Awe Dropping' than expected, says Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring calls Apple's "Awe Dropping" product event yesterday "a small positive surprise," telling investors that iPhone 17 prices are in-line with the firm's forecast, but affordability is better year-over-year and the iPhone Air form factor and feature set exceeded the firm's expectations. The firm, which believes estimates for the next 12 months are "biased upwards," keeps an Overweight rating and $240 price target on Apple shares.

Added to my Index shorts right before the opening:

* SPY $653.96

* QQQ $583.76

Added to PEP at $141.65.

From Peter Boockvar:

A drop in 'trade' prices helps to cool PPI

August PPI fell one tenth m/o/m vs the estimate of a gain of .3% and follows a .7% gain in July which was revised down by 2 tenths. The core rate also was down one tenth m/o/m and vs the forecast of up .3%. If we also take out trade, the figure was actually as expected, higher by .3% m/o/m. The y/o/y gains for all three tiers was 2.6%, 2.8% and 2.8% vs 3.1%, 3.4% and 2.7% respectively. Energy prices fell .4% m/o/m and down by 1.9% y/o/y. Food prices were up just one tenth m/o/m but still by 3.5% y/o/y.

With respect to goods, core goods prices are still rising pretty consistently, up .3% m/o/m after a .4% gain in July and higher by 2.9% y/o/y. The BLS said a 2.3% jump in tobacco products was the main mover and I guess that includes alternative nicotine products like vapes. One thing also stood out, the rise in ‘electric power’ and we all know why. Higher prices for ‘printed circuit assemblies, boards, modules and modems’ also were mentioned and likely part of the data center construction and tariffs too.

On services, prices fell .2% m/o/m after a .7% jump in July with trade down 1.7%, partly offset by a .9% increase in prices for transportation/warehousing. There was a big 3.9% drop in machinery and vehicle wholesaling lowering the trade price figure. We also saw drops in ‘professional and commercial equipment wholesaling’ of 5.2% after an 11.1% spike in the month before, ‘chemicals and allied products wholesaling’, ‘furniture retailing’, ‘food and alcohol retailing’, and ‘data processing and related services.’ On the flip side, higher asset prices lifted again ‘portfolio management’ by 2%. And, truck transportation of freight and apparel wholesale prices rose.

Bottom line, after the hot August wholesale price jump, we got the cooldown in August. Smoothing out the two months has headline PPI up .3% on average and same with the core rate. Tariffs are within some of the data but slicing and dicing it up is tough. For example, within PPI, the price at which an auto maker OEM sells to its dealers shows up here in vehicle wholesale but we watch CPI to see the extent to which dealers alter price. Trying to reconcile the extent to which companies pulled forward the ordering of goods pre tariffs and the extent at which inventory shelves got stocked as a result is not easy.

Either way, we’ll take the less than expected PPI figure but as seen, it was all due to the drop in ‘trade’ prices where margin squeezes might be taking place. Core goods price gains are back to running at about a 3% pace. How much is tariff influenced I’m just not sure.

Yields are down across the curve in response by about 2 bps from where they were just before in the 2s, 10s and 30s.

Core PPI y/o/y

Upside:

-ORCL +32% (earnings, guidance)

-PBPB +31% (to be acquired by RaceTrac at $17.12/shr in $566M cash deal)

-DAKT +19% (earnings)

-GLSI +18% (GLSI-100 granted US FDA Fast Track Designation)

-TVTX +17% (Advisory committee meeting is no longer needed for FILSPARI (sparsentan) in Focal Segmental Glomerulosclerosis (FSGS); PDUFA target action date is January 13, 2026)

-CRWV +12% (higher in sympathy with ORCL)

-BW +11% (announces strategic partnership with Denham Capital to convert existing coal plants to power data centers in the U.S. and Europe)

-SOC +9.0% (bounce off recent weakness)

-GME +8.9% (earnings; announces dividend of warrants to shareholders)

-JOBY +6.9% (Joby and Uber plan to bring Blade’s air mobility services to the Uber app as soon as next year)

-BILL +6.4% (reportedly Elliott Management has built a stake; PAYX introduces new financial management solution powered by BILL to simplify payroll and payments for SMBs)

-RKT +4.5% (Tier1 firm Raised RKT to Buy from Neutral, price target: $24)

-HIMS +3.5% (CEO sees new offerings widening access to low testosterone treatments)

-AVAV +3.0% (earnings, guidance)

Downside:

-NAKA -31% (discloses $30M investment in Metaplanet)

-SNPS -24% (earnings, guidance)

-CHWY -9.9% (earnings, guidance)

-NIO -8.2% (files to sell 181.8M Class A shares at HK$ 42.86-44.46 each to fund smart EV tech and expansion of battery swapping and charging network)

-HLLY -6.9% (files to sell 14M common share secondary offering by selling stockholder)

-LEA -2.4% (Tier1 firm Cuts LEA to Neutral from Buy, price target: $123 from $135)

Bonus — Here are some great links:

Nasdaq Keeps Making Records

Nothing Broken, Everyone Is Worried

Two Simple Trends

Concentrate Harder

Yesterday I opined that the Oracle ORCL "backlog blowout" might mark a possible peak in the AI trade.

Most importantly, one must be aware that all of the quickly depreciated spending on IT infrastructure must generate sufficient revenue and profits to recover the costs.

Remember that Oracle's future revenues are someone else's future capital spending. (According to the conference call three individual companies contributed to much of the company's dramatic rise in backlog.)

We have contended that many of the global AI players collectively are spending much more than they might earn on those expenditures in the face of numerous uncertainties:

My Contrary Oracle View

Here's my contrary view.

The Oracle (ORCL) backlog blowout (with Oracle future revenues ultimately still dependent on the availability of chips, companies' access to large sums of debt/capital, the need for a very large increase in power capacity, the forecasts assume no recession or price compression) "could" mark the end of the AI trade.

As well, it should be recognized that the ramp in future revenue projections by Oracle will produce dramatically lower profit margins relative to the company's currently robust margins.

Moreover, those projected ORCL sales will be taken out of the pocket of some other large tech competition.

In the after hours on the shows, the exact opposite view was expressed.

(Edited at 7:33 ET)

Position: None

By Doug Kass Sep 9, 2025 7:33 PM EDT

Today someone else agrees:

Here Is The Batshit Insane Chart That Sent Oracle Stock Soaring 25% After Hours | ZeroHedge

Yesterday I highlighted this on twitter:

To wit, a Hedgeye analyst responds in the affirmative and in agreement:

Wolf Street howls about the Cali housing market.

The S&P Short Range Oscillator expanded to 2.25% vs. 1.89%.