That's it. The final bell has rung. 

Treasury and equity index futures roared after a very weak August jobs report fueled hopes for a series of FOMC rate cuts that could start as soon as September 17. Treasuries remained strong. By day's end, the U.S. 10-Year Note paid just 4.09% (-7 bps). However, equities sold off sharply just after the opening bell as traders and investors faced the stark reality of a weaker economy and a new understanding that the Fed was indeed, late again.

For about 90 minutes after that opening bell bids were hit with reckless abandon. That's when the music changed and the market reversed sharply at around 11 a.m. in New York City. The major indexes never fully regained all of their lost grund, but many sectors and individual stocks did. The S&P 500 gave up just 0.32% on the session, while the Nasdaq Composite (-0.03%) nearly closed flat.

Six of the 11 S&P sector SPDR ETFs actually finished Friday in the green. Yes, the REITs XLRE were the day's winner, but the winners were not dominated by the defensives. Materials XLB finished in second place thanks to a weaker dollar followed by Communication Services XLC. Energy XLE and the Financials XLF were both hit pretty hard on fears of a rapidly slowing economy.

Broadcom AVGO, Enphase ENPH and Micron MU were the top performers in the S&P 500, while Lululemon Athletica LULU, at -18.6%, was easily the worst performer in the index. It would be difficult to find an analyst that did not take his or her target price for LULU lower after the company reported last night.

Have a great weekend, gang. Monday (Sunday night for kids like us) comes soon enough. It's been a pleasure, as it always is, to sub in for Dougie. It will be his happy face atop this Diary on Monday, but as always, I will stop by. 

Stay safe and God bless.

Sarge

Former Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler resigned abruptly last month, and she has declined to say why she quit the board with just a few months to go before her term ended.

President Donald Trump has waged a months long pressure campaign against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. He most recently tried to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook over allegations from administration officials that her mortgage records indicate she may have committed fraud.

A CNBC review of Kugler’s personal financial disclosures and her Maryland state tax records revealed two descriptions of her personal residence that appear to be incompatible with each other.

Kugler says the apparent inconsistency is the result of an error made by county tax officials.

Mystery of former Federal Reserve Governor Kugler’s resignation deepens as real estate records raise new questions

Question

In 1954, Bob Grim of the New York Yankees became the first hurler in Major League Baseball, during the post-integration era (1947) to win twenty games in a season while pitching less than 200 innings. It would not happen again until 2002, when Pedro Martinez of the Boston Red Sox did it. They both pitched 199 innings in those respective seasons.

Fast forward to the modern era of five inning starters and thirteen man pitching staffs and two pitchers have won twenty or more games while pitching less than 181 (180+) innings in a season. Name them. Clue: One was a Cy Young winner for that season, The other did not even come close.

Answer

1) In 2028, Blake Snell of the Tampa Bay Rays went 21-5 with a 1.89 ERA, while pitching just 180.2 innings. Snell started 31 games, and did not pitch a complete game, but still managed to win the first of his two Cy Young Awards.

2) In 2022, Kyle Wright of the Atlanta Braves went 21-5 with a 3.19 ERA, while pitching 180.1 innings. Wright started 30 games and did not pitch a complete game. He finished in 10th place that year for the NL Cy Young Award. Interestingly, Wright has won one MLB game since 2022. He has pitched 23 innings in the minors this season for the Kansas City organization (between AA & AAA) with a 5.87 ERA. 

In 1954, Bob Grim of the New York Yankees became the first hurler in Major League Baseball, during the post-integration era (1947) to win twenty games in a season while pitching less than 200 innings. It would not happen again until 2002, when Pedro Martinez of the Boston Red Sox did it. They both pitched 199 innings in those respective seasons.

Fast forward to the modern era of five inning starters and thirteen man pitching staffs and two pitchers have won twenty or more games while pitching less than 181 (180+) innings in a season. Name them. Clue: One was a Cy Young winner for that season, The other did not even come close. 

A question came from below regarding my 8% rule for risk management. It's really quite simple. A long time ago, in a far, far away galaxy, I was a trader during the dot-com bubble. I was working for a broker-dealer at the time (who is now defunct), where we traded for our firm's accounts but were not allowed to trade options and had to hold our own equity positions for a 90-day period before we were allowed to make a sale. Yes, these rules suck, but we were paid quite well. So, we accepted the terms.

Along comes this hot internet incubator... CMGI, my worst trade of all time. I bought the shares for my own account at an average price of $151 and 9/16. The dot-com bubble started to burst only a couple of weeks later. I called my firm's compliance people when the stock was trading in the $70's maybe half-way through my mandatory holding period. I pleaded. It was clear that I was not trading on any inside information. Let me get out with almost half of my money.

No dice. No exceptions. I sold those shares after my holding period ended at $4 and 5/8, which turned out to be a good sale at that time. The shares never recovered. I lost 97% on that trade. I promised myself from that day on, to never put myself in a position where working for someone else hurt my ability to either make money or be able to defend myself. I also promised myself to prioritize risk management and get good at it.

Ultimately, I came up with my 8% rule. The IBD people have something similar. I am not sure if they use a 7% or 8% rule. Simply put, I will never, ever, ever lose more than 8% on a trade ever again, unless I am asleep and wake up to a loss or if it is part of my plan to scale a stock down to a certain level as I create my position. What about dollar cost averaging? Permitted, but only if planned, but not just as a way to get the percentage under 8%.

This rule will, at times, force small mistakes, but traders can adjust after making those mistakes. On the other side of the coin, this rule prevents catastrophe. There are no 20%, 30%, or larger losses. Ever. As a stock trades up, we have latitude. We can play with the space created. We can also, if we do not trust the stock, run a mental trailing stop at an 8% discount to a last sale or to a specific moving average.

I hope this answers your question. This rule is one of the main reasons that I was able to go from merely being an above-average Wall Streeter to what I ultimately became: self-sufficient with no need for an employer and no need for customers. 

Rock on.

Greg W asks: "AMD has a drop from $180 to $150 area in the last 2 weeks. Any thought to share on your plan on this stock ? Thanks"

AMD rallied on a series of Bull Flag patterns of trend continuance. The stock is now selling off in what looks like a Bull Flag gone bad, or a Falling Wedge pattern of bullish reversal. 

Now that the 50-day SMA has been lost, I have sold some and will be adding it back on down to the 200-day SMA.

Sep 5, 2025

• The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025:Q3 is 2.1%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.0, 3.2] and the 80% interval at [0.1, 4.3]. The Staff Nowcast for 2025:Q4 is 2.3%.

• News from this week's data releases decreased the estimates for 2025:Q3 and 2025:Q4 by 0.1 percentage point each.

• A positive surprise from imports data was more than offset by negative surprises from nonfarm payroll and ADP employment data for both quarters.

Adding to Rocket Lab in the Midst of an Emergency - TheStreet Pro

Latest estimate: 3.0 percent — September 04, 2025

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.0 percent on September 4, unchanged from September 2 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management, increases in the nowcasts of real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth from 1.7 percent and 5.3 percent, respectively, to 2.1 percent and 6.0 percent, were more than offset by a decline in the nowcast in the contribution on net exports to GDP growth from 0.69 percentage points to 0.28 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, September 10.

CrowdStrike CRWD is testing its own 200-day SMA, while developing a massive Head & Shoulders pattern of bearish reversal. 

I am adding here just in case the pros defend the 200-day line. Now, I am playing with house money in this one. 

I'm adding here. Should that line crack, it will crack hard as those pros get out. Remember your 8% rule. 

Palantir PLTR has not lost contact with its 50-day SMA, but it does appear that professional money may be getting out. 

The low of August 20 has not yet been breached. Barring a similar-looking hammer doji to what we saw that day, a reduction in long-side risk is likely called for.

My piece published elsewhere at TST Pro:

Rate Cut Expectations Soar After Harsh Jobs Report - TheStreet Pro

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Jerome “Too Late” Powell should have lowered rates long ago. As usual, he’s “Too Late!”

One-minute chart of the S&P 500 from the opening bell through 10:20 a.m. ET. 

S&P Futures: +12 vs FV.

Nasdaq Futures: +124 vs FV.

US Three-Month T-Bill: 4.05%

US Ten-Year Note: 4.1%

DXY: -0.66%

WTI Crude: -1.4%

Gold: +0.85%

Silver: +0.86%

Bitcoin: +2.69%

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Looks like we’ve lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest, China. May they have a long and prosperous future together! President Donald J. Trump

DocuSign DOCU price target raised to $85 from $80 at Wells Fargo

DocuSign price target raised to $102 from $85 at BofA

DocuSign price target raised to $80 from $77 at JPMorgan

DocuSign price target raised to $90 from $85 at Piper Sandler

S&P Futures: +5 s FV.

Nasdaq Futures: +1044 vvs FV.

US Three-Month T-Bill: 4.085%

US Ten-Year Note: 4.145%

DXY: -0.34%

WTI Crude: -0.95%

Gold: +0.02%

Silver: -0.21%

Bitcoin: +2.39%

Broadcom AVGO price target raised to $400 from $265 at Barclays

Broadcom price target raised to $400 from $300 at BofA

Broadcom price target raised to $400 from $295 at Bernstein

Broadcom price target raised to $375 from $315 at Piper Sandler

Broadcom price target raised to $360 from $325 at Oppenheimer

Broadcom price target raised to $400 from $330 at KeyBanc

Broadcom price target raised to $400 from $340 at Rosenblatt

Broadcom price target raised to $350 from $315 at Citi

Broadcom price target raised to $365 from $295 at Truist

Broadcom price target raised to $400 from $350 at Cantor Fitzgerald

Lululemon LULU downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel

Lululemon downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair

Lululemon price target lowered to $180 from $209 at Barclays

Lululemon downgraded to In Line from Outperform at Evercore ISI

Lululemon downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Telsey Advisory

Lululemon downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer

Lululemon price target lowered to $185 from $240 at UBS

Lululemon downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA

Lululemon price target lowered to $160 from $205 at Wells Fargo

Lululemon price target lowered to $191 from $224 at JPMorgan

Lululemon price target lowered to $165 from $200 at Piper Sandler

Lululemon price target lowered to $303 from $375 at BTIG

Lululemon price target lowered to $225 from $260 at Baird

Good morning!

You guessed it. Today is Friday. There are many like it, but this one is different. This is August Jobs Day Friday. Huzzah! Another chance to beat up the Bureau of Labor Statistics! Another Huzzah!

Dougie is off today or at least off from the Diary, so you're stuck with me for the next eleven hours or so. Stuck with your old buddy, your not just old, but best buddy ever, your pal, Sarge. Also known as Steve, Stephen, Gills, Jerk, Hey You and WTF?

Let's get things off on the right foot and get that blood flowing. I've been up and working since zero dark thirty this morning, so I'm fired up. That said, some of you are still trying to rip that greasy head of yours away from that disgusting thing you call a pillow. So, rip and tear, my friends. For the day is upon us. As we traverse our way into and through the valley, we shall fear no evil.

Why? Because evil is but for the wicked, and the wicked shall tremble before our mighty boots. Let me hear your guttural roar. Oh yeah, get some. We are highly motivated. We are truly dedicated. We are who we need to be this day. Now, drop and give me 50 (or whatever it is you can). Then roll over and make those abs work. Up in the morning before the rising sun, gonna work all day until the workin's done.

Everybody done getting that blood flowing? Excellent. Let's go get a cup of Joe and meet back here shortly. Say hi to the dog for me. Rock on.